Russia, Turkey, and Iran review situation after pro-Assad takeover of East Ghouta near Damascus

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Why Syria’s “Regime Change Plot” Narrative Doesn’t Make Sense

Russia has used a meeting with Iran and Turkey in Moscow to attack the US over Syria’s crisis, but little of substance came from the tripartite discussion between Foreign Ministers.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused the US of trying to divide the country while ignoring international law by firing missiles — alongside the UK and France — on three Assad regime military facilities on April 14.

Lavrov said American statements “are only words that, apparently, cover plans for reformatting the Middle East and plans for dividing Syria into parts”. He continued:

While we are building options for peace, some of our other colleagues are trying to destroy the results of our joint constructive efforts, not even following the international law like in the recent operation of the US, UK, and France against Syria.

He did not note that the American strikes were on facilities connected to the Assad regime’s chemical weapons program, let alone that they were in response to two chemical attacks by pro-Assad forces on Douma near Damascus on April 7 — operations which Moscow has tried to sweep away with a campaign of propaganda, disinformation, and obstruction.

The chemical attacks forced the capitulation of Douma, the main town in the East Ghouta region that had been held by the opposition since 2012.

Russia is hoping to force the withdrawal of American personnel from Syria. The US backs the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces that hold much of the north and east after pushing back the Islamic State since autumn 2015. Donald Trump has spoken of his wish for withdrawal and has frozen US funds for stabilization in the SDF-held areas.

What is a “Political Solution”?

Turkey’s Turkey’s Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu avoided focus on the Americans, instead saying that it is important to work with the UN to ensure a political solution, rather than “illegal” and “unsustainable” military solution.

Some observers saw the statement as a pushback on the Assad regime’s desire to reclaim all of Syria, notably parts of the northwest held by the opposition with Turkish military involvement.

After reconciling with Russia, Turkey sent in forces and equipment in August 2016, initally to work with rebels in operations against ISIS and then this year to take over much of the Kurdish canton of Afrin.

Iranian State media concentrated on a formulaic recitation of the joint statement from Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and his counterparts, mentioning the periodic talks in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana which the three countries have pressed since January 2017:

[We] agreed to increase joint efforts aimed at facilitating the achievement of a lasting political settlement in Syria envisaged by the UN Security Council Resolution 2254 and through full use of multi-level mechanisms of the Astana format.

The three countries have proclaimed “de-escalation zones” through the talks, only for Russia to break them in essential airstrikes to support pro-Assad advances, including in East Ghouta.

Zarif echoed Çavuşoğlu, “We have announced since the outset that Syria has no military solution and that the sides must focus on a political solution.”

However, Tehran and Ankara may be at odds over the Assad regime’s plans. The top aide to the Supreme Leader, Ali Akbar Velayati, has publicly supported the regime’s intention of retaking territory not only from the Kurds but also in the northwest where Turkey has tried to estabish an observation zone around opposition territory.

Reports: Pro-Assad Forces Clash With Kurdish-Led SDF in Eastern Syria

Pro-opposition sites are reporting an attack by pro-Assad forces on positions of the US-supported, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in Deir ez-Zor Province in eastern Syria.

The Deir ez-Zor 24 site says the regime’s National Defense Forces militia, the Iranian-backed Baqir Brigade, and Hezbollah-linked militiamen took several villages.

As the SDF was preparing for an assault on Islamic State pockets in the north and east of the province, the pro-Assad units claimed Jayaa, Janina, and the Alyan area in the west.

A D24 correspondent said the SDF has sent reinforcements to the area and launched a counter-attack taking Jayaa and Alyan, with clashes in Janina. Reported casualties are at least 14 pro-Assad and seven SDF fatalities.

Hundreds of civilians have reportedly been displaced by the fighting.

If confirmed, the fighting would be the most serious incident between pro-Assad and Kurdish-led forces since the regime and its allies, led by Russian “private contractors”, attacked SDF positions east of the Euphrates River near a gas plant in February.

About 200 Russian personnel of the Wagner Group were reportedly killed by US airstrikes defending the SDF positions.

Assad MP’s Disinformation Over “Brits in Douma”

MP Fares Shehabi, a leading social media promoter of Assad regime propaganda and disinformation, tries to justify the takeover of East Ghouta — including with chemical attacks — with the unsupported claims that 280 British citizens were in Douma.

Shehabi then portrays an imminent threat to the UK as the mystery Britons — who somehow were allowed by Russia and the Assad regime to leave East Ghouta — are on their way back to the UK to carry out terrorist acts.