PHOTO: Fire near a bakery hit by a Russian airstrike in northern Homs Province on Thursday


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Audio Analysis: How Russia’s Intervention Boosted the Islamic State


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UPDATE 1800 GMT: The Russian military said on Friday that its warplanes have carried out more than 600 missions and struck 380 Islamic State facilities since September 30.

The deputy head of the army’s General Staff, Colonel General Andrey Kartapolov said, “We have…observed cases when the militants were fleeing their positions in panic, which is telling. Naturally, this also encourages the [Syrian] Government troops that mounted an offensive.”

Kartopolov did not explain how there could have been 600 missions against ISIS when the vast majority of Russian attacks have been observed on rebel positions. Indeed, he did not refer at all to any such attacks, despite Russia’s support for a five-front regime ground offensive against the rebels.

The officer said the Russian military was considering “one base to comprise the naval, air and ground components” in Syria. However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to comment on Kartopolov’s remark.


UPDATE 0915 GMT: Multiple reports indicate that the regime-Russian offensive has launched its fifth front near Aleppo city. Pro-opposition activists say rebels have regained positions lost in the initial assault south of Aleppo, including in Sabiqah, Bahriya, and Muqasarat, killing eight regime troops.

Pro-regime outlets said the offensive is seeking to recapture the ‘Azzan Mountains and to establish a larger buffer-zone around the Syrian military’s only highway leading to Aleppo city.


UPDATE 0900 GMT: Russian airstrikes on al-Ghanto in northern Homs Province on Friday morning:

Aftermath of another attack on Ter Maaleh, where at least 18 people died in a strike on a bakery on Thursday:


ORIGINAL ENTRY: The regime-Russia offensive in western Syria has opened its fourth front in nine days, launching attacks in northern Homs Province on Thursday.

Regime forces pursued four lines of attack towards the villages of al-Khalidiya and Dar al-Kabira.

As with the other three fronts, initial gains appear to have been limited with rebels pushing back the ground assault despite intense Russian airstrikes. Pro-regime outlets claimed the capture of al-Khalidiya and attacks on two other villages.

However, by Thursday afternoon, rebels said they had killed scores of Assad militia and destroyed four tanks, a Shilka system, and two other vehicles destroyed.

Local sources and journalist Hadi al-Abdallah also said that a Russian warplane caused significant casualties among regime forces when it accidentally hit the Mulook checkpoint, one of the largest in Homs Province.

The Free Syrian Army said Russia tried to pave the way for the ground assault with more than 20 airstrikes. Activists claimed that at least 57 civilians were killed, including 17 people in a shelter in al-Ghanto and 18 in a bakery in Ter Maaleh near Talbiseh. Regime checkpoints also fired numerous missiles into the opposition-held area.

Footage of the aftermath of the attack on al-Ghanto, with very graphic images of bodies, has been posted.

The FSA said that Captain Rawad al-Aksah, the head of the operations room near the town of Talbiseh, had been slain. Al-Aksah was a defector from the Syrian army who had led an FSA Special Operations Battalion in northern Homs.

The offensive is hoping to capture the towns of Rastan and Talbiseh, which has been hit with three waves of airstrikes with more than 60 people killed since Russia began operations on September 30. The seizure of the area would allow the regime to reclaim the M5 highway connecting the cities of Homs and Hama.

Meanwhile, pro-regime outlets are promising a fifth front in Aleppo Province soon. They have addressed reports of “hundreds” of Iranian troops joining the offensive by claiming that about 1,500 Iranian-supported Iraqi and Pakistani militia will be involved.

Iran has provided commanders to train and lead Assad militia since 2012, and it has helped bring in the Iraqi and Pakistani fighters, as well as Afghan immigrants promised Iranian permanent residency and money if they go on the battlefield. However, they have refrained so far from a significant deployment of their own troops.

See Syria Daily, Oct 15: Iranian Troops Reportedly Gathering Near Aleppo

Regime-Russia Progress Still Limited on Other Fronts

Regime forces are still not making any apparent breakthroughs on the first three fronts of their offensive — the 20-km (13-mile) salient in northern Hama Province, the al-Ghab Plain in Hama bordering rebel-held Idlib Province, and to the west of that, the frontline in northeast Latakia Province.

The pro-regime al-Masdar News claimed the capture of a hill in the Hama salient near the village of Sukeek, one of the few taken so far. It said Safsafa in the western al-Ghab Plain had also been occupied.


Videos: Aleppo Marches Call for Rebel Unity

Marches in Aleppo calling on rebels to unify their forces:

Public discontent has risen this month as rebel factions have given up ground to the Islamic State in northern Aleppo Province and east of Aleppo city, and then as regime forces moved into some areas taken by ISIS.

While rebels have faced Russian airstrikes, a commander spoke this week of disorganization and lack of US support crippling their defenses.


Claimed Photo of Another Prominent Revolutionary Guards Commander in Syria

Much attention has been given this week to photographs claiming to show the head of the Qods Force, General Qassem Soleimani, in Syria amid reports of an Iranian military build-up in the country.

Now Iran’s military outlets are featuring a picture which is purportedly of another famous Revolutionary Guards figure, General , in the Syrian theater.Saeed Qassemi

Qassemi led the elite “Mohammad Prophet of God Army”, which fought Israel in the Golan Heights in 1982. A well-known supporter of former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he is known his fiery talks about politics.

QASSEMI SYRIA

(Cross-posted from Iran Daily)


Turkey Downs Drone, Apparently Made By Russia

Turkish jets downed an unmanned drone on Friday, with a US official saying that Washington believes it is Russian-made.

The Turks said they had warned the drone three times after it entered 3 km (1.9 miles) into Turkish airspace.

The Russian Defence Ministry insisted that all its drones were operating “as planned”. However, the Russian site Gazeta saidwa the unmanned aerial vehicle was part of an advanced project which had not been made public.


Regime and Hezbollah Push Back Rebel Offensive in Quneitra in Southwest

The Syrian army and Hezbollah troops have pushed back a rebel offensive hoping to connect Quneitra Province in southwest Syria with opposition-held areas in West Ghouta near Damascus.

The offensive made notable gains from September 25, including the capture of “UN Hill”, the highest point in northern Quneitra. However, regime forces reclaimed the hill, also known as Tel al-Qaba’a, last Saturday and seized the hilltop of Tel Ahmar two days later.

On Thursday, the Syrian troops and Hezbollah moved into the Amal Farms..

Rebel sources said Hezbollah reinforcements had swung the battle.


Despite Official Denials, US Sends 50 Tons of Ammunition to Kurds in Northern Syria

Bloomberg View confirms that, despite official denials, the US is supplying ammunition to Kurdish militia to challenge the Islamic State.

The White House said last weekend that the US had dropped 50 tons of ammunition to the rebels of the newly-created Syrian Arab Coalition. But “American and Kurdish officials and Syrian Arab opposition leaders” said the supply was mainly for the Kurdish militia YPG.

A “senior administration official” said the Syrian Arab Coalition was a “ploy” to arm the Kurds, who controlled the area where the weapons were dropped.

US Central Command maintained in a statement, “Our successful airdrop provided ammunition to Arab fighters fighting in Northern Syria against ISIL [the Islamic State].”

However, a local Kurdish official has already said that the US provided 120 tons of weapons and ammunition to the YPG. Turkey summoned the US Ambassador to complain, as Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Ankara could not tolerate the material being diverted to the Turkish Kurdish insurgency PKK.

YPG commander Sipan Hemo acknowledged the Kurds had received the airdrops:

With this new support, the cooperation we have had for a year has reached a new level. And we hope to increase our work together even more, we hope to work strategically. So what we received was not big. But it is big for a new start.

The YPG has established a new alliance with rebels and Christian militia in the Democratic Forces of Syria, meeting on Thursday for the first time.

In a change of policy last month, the US said it would concentrate of support of a Kurdish-Free Syrian Army offensive on the Islamic State’s center of Raqqa in northern Syria.


Local Coordination Committees: 101 Killed Across Syria on Thursday

The Local Coordination Committees documented the deaths of 101 people across Syria on Thursday.

In addition to 57 casualties in Homs Province amid the Russia-regime offensive, 19 people were killed in and near Damascus and 17 in Aleppo Province.


Video: Regime Airstrikes on Douma near Damascus on Friday

The regime air force is also continuing attacks on Douma, near Damascus, on Friday:

Activists say at least three people have already been killed.

The Assad regime has tried for years, through bombardment and sieges, to break rebels — especially the Jaish al-Islam faction — and civilians in Douma. Hundreds were killed this summer by the attacks.


Report: Fearing Kurds-Rebel Attack, Islamic State Calls Up All Males Above 14 in Raqqa

Journalist Abdurahman Harkoush reports the latest sign of the Islamic State’s preparations for an attack upon their center of Raqqa in northern Syria:

Activists have said that ISIS is building trenches in anticipation of the offensive.

Kurdish militia, assisted by Free Syrian Army units, advanced against the Islamic State across northeastern Syria this spring. Encouraging the offensive, the US delivered arms and ammunition to the Kurds earlier this month, and the Kurds, FSA, and Assyrian units announced a new coalition this week.