PHOTO: Russian airstrike on Talbiseh in northern Homs Province last Wednesday

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WEDNESDAY FEATURE

Special: Documenting Russia’s Airstrikes

UPDATE 1850 GMT: A map from the Levantine Group, based on proprietary and open sources, confirms that almost all Russian airstrikes since September 30 have been upon opposition-held territory, rather than the Islamic State:

RUSSIA AIRSTRIKES MAP

UPDATE 1730 GMT: Russian officials lied on Wednesday that they said their ships fired 26 cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea on the Islamic State, rather than Syrian rebels.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told State TV that four vessels in the Caspian Sea launched the Kalibr missiles almost 1,500 km (930 miles) on 11 targets, destroying all of them after overflying Iranian and Iraqi territory.

However, video released by the Defense Ministry calls the official account into question:

One of the two groups of missiles, according to the map in the video, strikes Islamic State-held territory southeast of Raqqa. However, the other group lands far to the west in opposition-held Idlib Province, near Idlib city and Ma’arat al-Nu’man.

Syrian State news agency SANA also inadvertently exposed the lie, writing, “The Russian navy fired a total of 26 Caliber missiles against 11 positions for ISIS in al-Raqqa, Aleppo and Idlib Provinces.”

The Islamic State has no significant positions in Idlib Province, let alone close to Idlib city and Ma’arat al-Nu’man.

UPDATE 1640 GMT: There are sharply conflicting claims over the state of the regime-Russian offensive in northern Hama Province.

Pro-regime accounts and State media declare that the Syrian military, supported by the Russian air force, have taken three or four villages near Morek.

However, a local source assures EA that “not an inch of ground has been taken” by the offensive. The rebel coalition Jaish al-Fateh says it has destroyed 17 battle tanks and several other vehicles and killed scores of regime troops.

State TV images of the Syrian military’s operations:

Some of the claimed footage of rebel anti-tank missiles destroying regime armored vehicles:

Rebels also claim to have captured a T-72 tank:

A report from the rebel frontline:

UPDATE 1330 GMT: Claimed footage of rebels after they repelled a regime ground offensive, supported by Russian airstrikes, near Latameneh in northern Hama Province on Wednesday:

UPDATE 0630 GMT: Russia has stepped up airstrikes on northern Hama Province this morning, apparently to cover the start of a ground offensive by regime forces.

Some reports say fighting has begun on a 30-km (19-mile) front, with Russian helicopters airlifting troops into Morek:

A Russian airstrike on Latameneh:

An attack on Habit:

A row of strikes on Kafrzita:

RUSSIA STRIKES KAFRZITA

Another attack in the area:

Outside Hama, Russian warplanes are striking in Idlib and Aleppo Provinces. Aftermath of an attack on Darat Azzah in Aleppo Province:

UPDATE 0610 GMT: The Russian Defense Ministry has said for the first time that warplanes have attacked positions in Damascus Province.

nistry Spokesman Igor Konashenkov said on Tuesday that Su-24 fighters destroyed an Islamic State munitions plant in the Ghouta area and that another mission targeted an Islamic State position at Telu-Dakua.

There were no local reports of the Russian attacks. Most of the area near the Syrian capital Damascus is held by the opposition, although there are pockets of Islamic State fighters in the province.

Konashenkov said Russia’s warplanes made about 20 sorties and hit 12 Islamic State targets on Tuesday.

UPDATE 0600 GMT: While attacking Syria’s rebels, Russia has tried to shift attention back to the Islamic State, the nominal focus of its military intervention.

The Defense Ministry spokesman, General Igor Konashenkov, said on Wednesday, “The Russian Defense Ministry has responded to a request from Pentagon and swiftly considered US proposals to coordinate actions to fight the Islamic State terrorist group in Syria. These proposals can be accepted for implementation in general.

“We just need to specify some technical details that will be discussed today by representatives of the Russian Defense Ministry and the Pentagon at the expert level,” Konashenkov added.

Meanwhile, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova rejected the statement of a leading Russian politicians that Moscow may soon send “volunteer” troops to the battlefield:

I can repeat it officially once again: there are no official campaigns on participation in ground operations. No one officially recruits any volunteers. I think it is just about somebody saying something in improper terms or somebody misinterpreting something.

Admiral Vladimir Komoyedov, the head of Parliament’s Defense Committee, said on Monday that the soldiers could be deployed.

Zakharova responded:

Of course, there are a lot of public figures, politicians and lawmakers in Russia who have their own opinion and who have the right to express it. We provide comments on our official position and it has just one interpretation: there are no and can be no ground operations, there are no and can be no land troops. And the Russia leaders have said it officially.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: The prospect of a regime ground offensive in Hama and/or Homs Provinces in central Syria, supported by Russian warplanes and possibly troops, grew on Tuesday with more reports of psychological operations against rebels and residents.

The Syrian military called on civilians to flee the areas, bombed by Russia since last Wednesday. Leaflets and text messages gave advice, “Don’t carry guns when approaching checkpoints. Carry pamphlet in one hand, other hand behind head.”

A teacher in Rastan in northern Homs Province said:

We read the message and have received others like it. We know that the regime is trying to play a psychological game. This time after reading it, we didn’t feel anything. We see bombardments on a daily basis, especially this week, so it doesn’t make us feel anything anymore. Death is always near and there are always planes overhead.

He continued:

We can’t leave the area because of the regime’s blockade. Besides, the closest area is dozens of kilometers away from us so we are staying. We don’t believe that the regime’s storming [of the region] will change anything. Those who don’t die in regime air raids will die when the regime invades, and the opposite is true [those who survived the raids will survive the invasion].

The teacher concluded, “We trust that our destiny is tied to the destiny of the rebels and the Free Syrian army.”

A local activist was defiant: “The last time the regime tried to advance, into a small village called Aqrab, they suffered major losses. They withdrew, dragging their tale of defeat behind them.”

Rebels have long held a pockets of territory between Homs and Hama cities (area 3 on map below). To the north of Hama city, the opposition-held region, including the al-Ghab Plain (area 2), is connected to Idlib Province which rebels captured this spring.

HOMS HAMA SYRIA

Soon after the Russian bombing began last week, pro-regime outlets and activists began their proclamations of a ground offensive. Initial regime attacks were rebuffed by the rebels, but the prospect has been bolstered by the claim of a leading Russian politician that Moscow’s “volunteer” troops may soon be on the battlefield.

Syria Daily, October 6: Russia Deploying Ground Forces?

Despite Obama Opposition, Kerry Raising Possibility of No-Fly Zone

Despite President Obama’s opposition, Secretary of State John Kerry is maintaining the possibility of a no-fly zone in Syria to protect civilians, according to “several administration officials”.

The officials said Kerry has asked his staff to further develop the idea and raised the issue at a National Security Council meeting last week. Kerry “wants to revisit this and for it to be looked at more seriously,” one “senior administration official” said.

After last Thursday’s meeting, Administration officials told journalists that the plan was to bolster a Kurdish force, supported by rebel elements, to advance on the Islamic State’s center of Raqqa in northern Syria. They gave no indication that a no-fly zone — long sought by the Syrian opposition and rebels, and proposed by Turkey this summer — was discussed.

See Syria Daily, October 5: Washington Reveals Its Big Plan to Fight the Islamic State

However, some officials later told CNN that there was also initial talk about a no-fly zone near Syria’s southern border with Jordan, although the option “was even less thought out” than the protected area along the Turkish border.

“I expect this discussion process to go on quite intensively for the next few weeks,” an official said.

Despite the revelation of Kerry’s position, the officials said the safe zone is “not currently being seriously considered” by the Administration.

Amid NATO Criticism, Russia to Turkey “Let’s Avoid Misunderstanding About Our Violations of Airspace”

Amid criticism by NATO, Russian officials have said they welcome talks with Turkish counterparts to avoid “misunderstandings” about Moscow’s warplanes that have violated Turkey’s airspace.

Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said Moscow would welcome a Turkish Defense Ministry delegation for the talks. He also called for an expansion of discussions with the US: “To our regret, the Americans narrow down our cooperation to technical issues of cooperation between our pilots during the assigned missions.”

NATO rejected Russia’s claims that the violations by jet fighters on Saturday and Sunday were “mistakes”, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said in Brussels on Tuesday, “An attack on Turkey means an attack on NATO.”

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said, “I will not speculate on the motives…but this does not look like an accident and we have seen two of them…[which] lasted for a long time”.

The Russian Ministry of Defense said that an Su-30 fighter entered Turkish air space along the border with Syria because of bad weather “for a few seconds” on Saturday. It said it is also looking into Sunday’s violation.

The US said it would consider broadened talks about “deconfliction” with the Russians.

“We look forward to the formal response from the Russians and learning the details,” said Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook. “We stand ready to meet again to continue our earlier discussions as soon as possible.”