PHOTO: Rally for the Islamic State in Mosul, June 16, 2014

Marking the one-year anniversary of the Islamic State’s capture of Mosul in northern Iraq, I spoke with Monocle 24’s The Globalist on Thursday morning about the situation in the country’s third-largest city and whether the militants will remain in control.

That is just the start of the discussion, which also considers whether the US and its 450 additional advisors can make a difference in Mosul (No); whether Mosul can be “recovered” if the Islamic State is evicted; why there are wider issues beyond the city, such as the need for a Baghdad Government with legitimacy across the country; and whether the Islamic State is succeeding in establishing a “State”/”Caliphate” in Iraq and Syria beyond individual cities like Mosul and Ramadi (Again, No).

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Listen from 4:27: