PHOTO: Aftermath of a regime airstrike on al-Bab in Syria
SYRIA
Recent offensives by both the regime and insurgents settled into a “dynamic stalemate”, amid limited information on fronts near Damascus and Aleppo.
The Syrian military, which made notable advances east of Aleppo last month, concentrated on aerial bombardment in the province this week. Almost 60 people were killed in two days in the town of al-Bab, north of Aleppo, and scores more were slain elsewhere by attacks that included “barrel bombs”.
Near Damascus, uncertainty continued over the insurgency’s attempt to break the military siege of its areas in East Ghouta. Reports of the capture of the town of Otaiba and several villages are still unconfirmed.
The state of the regime’s offensive in the Qalamoun region between Damascus and the Lebanese border, now in its third week, is also unclear. Syrian forces were able to reclaim Deir Atiyeh, having lost it briefly last week, and held onto the town of Qara. They now are pressing Nabk in Damascus Province, north of the capital.
However, the Damascus-to-Homs highway still appears to be blocked by the insurgents, limiting the Syrian offensive and cutting supplies. Opposition fighters also increased the regime’s difficulties with energy, attacking the oil refinery in Homs.
FORECAST
With winter approaching, the prospect is of a grinding conflict rather than a resolution in favor of either side.
A better-organized insurgency has checked the regime’s offensives, both in Aleppo Province and in Qalamoun, and has challenged the Syrian military around Damascus. However, at this point, it has not rolled back the regime’s advances near Aleppo and south of Damascus, and most of the insurgent-held suburbs — including Moadaimiyyat Ash Sham in West Ghouta — remain under siege.
Despite the proclamation of the United Nations that a “peace” conference will be held in January, there is no prospect at this point that both the regime and the opposition will both attend.
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IRAN
After the drama around the interim nuclear deal, reached on November 24, the Rouhani Government settled into the presentation of the agreement — both to domestic and international audiences — and efforts at economic recovery.
The Government put out a firm line that its vision of the deal, including the de facto recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium and the easing of sanctions to free up billions of dollars, must be respected. Having leaked the full text of the Joint Agreement to Iranian media, it hit back at a White House summary, saying it distorted the terms.
At the same time, Iranian officials assured that the next steps were being taken, including technical discussions this week, with implementation of the agreement to begin around December 20. President Rouhani’s advisor said about $8 billion of Iranian assets would be freed, while Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh anticipated the re-entry of Western companies after they withdrew from investment during the Ahmadinejad years.
Linking its diplomacy to economic recovery, Iran hosted Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who said Ankara’s trade with the Islamic Republic would rise to $30 billion by 2015 and $100 billion by 2020.
Offsetting US-based declarations that the nuclear deal had brought a surge in Saudi hostility, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif visited Kuwait and Oman in the latest stage of President Rouhani’s “engagement” with Gulf States. Zarif said he anticipated a trip to Saudi Arabia in the near-future.
FORECAST
The Rouhani Government, having blocked any hardline backlash against the nuclear deal, is now highlighting the prospect of economic recovery.
Provided that the 5+1 Powers, notably the US, do not back away from the agreement and the efforts for a comprehensive settlement, the Government is likely to succeed in the short-term. The rise in the rate of inflation has been halted, and trade should increase, even though a recovery in oil exports will take some time after the easing of bans on insurance for tankers.
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