Syria’s military finally eased its bombardment in and near Aleppo after more than two weeks of airstrikes, killing more than 500 people.

There was no sign of any benefit for President Assad’s forces from the attacks. Instead, signals indicated continuing pressure by insurgents on the Syrian military in Aleppo Province, putting pressure on as-Safira, the city east of Aleppo taken by the regime last month.

Near Damascus, insurgents appear to hold most of the territory gained in East Ghouta in their offensive to break the regime’s siege of opposition-held areas. However, it was unclear if the insurgency had made any progress in “Phase II” of the operation.

Politically, the developments were better for President Assad. The clues that the US Government might accept his stay in power, linked to the long-delayed “peace” conference in Switzerland, continued — a former high-level American Ambassador said the “brutal beyond belief” President was preferable to “extremist” insurgents.

Saudi Arabia countered with further backing of the insurgency. It hosted a visit by French President Francois Hollande and announced a $3 billion package of military aid, financing French weapons, for Lebanon.

FORECAST

After the flurry of offensives by both the regime and the insurgency in the last six weeks, the military situation appears to have returned to its “dynamic stalemate”. Neither side has landed a decisive blow, although the insurgents have successfully countered the regime’s attempt to portray expanding “victories” around Damascus and Aleppo.

Mainstream attention is likely to turn to the political arena, given the approach of the January 22 date for the international “peace conference”. With no sign of a significant opposition presence — despite the announcement this week by Kurdish groups that they would attend — the gathering is likely to be token at best. That will put pressure on the US: does it now accept President Assad’s stay in power, despite the split this will bring with the insurgency, much of the opposition, Saudi Arabia, and possibly France?

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