I spoke with talkRADIO and BBC radio on Wednesday about Donald Trump’s withdrawal of the US from the Iran nuclear deal, dealing not only with how and why the decision was taken but also the consequences for Iran, the Middle East, and Europe.
Take-away points:
1. The decision is a combination of Trump’s personal motives — ripping up any initiative by Barack Obama, fulfilling a promise to his base of supporters — and the goal of some aides, notably National Security Advisor John Bolton, to pursue regime change by breaking Iran economically;
2. This is a decision for confrontation of Iran over containment of the nuclear program — both a confrontation inside the Islamic Republic and confrontation across the Middle East, with significance for Syria, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Israel v. Hezbollah, and Iraq among other arenas of conflict.
3. Europe — i.e. the European Union and the European signatories of the deal (UK, France, and Germany) — now has a critical role and a critical decision to make. Does it defy the US and engage with Iran economically, thus not only salvaging the deal but the future of the centrist Rouhani Government — or does it bow dow to the threat of US sanctions on European companies and banks as well as on Tehran?
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Foreign policy expert: "Donald Trump has chosen confrontation with Iran" over nuclear deal. Watch again ▼@JuliaHB1 | @ScottLucas_EA | https://t.co/sv3MZUm41c pic.twitter.com/SBoxb1E8qr
— talkRADIO (@talkRADIO) May 9, 2018
FT’s liberal Tehran correspondent
Liberal and FT are an oxymoron.
Has the countdown to the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran begun? https://www.ft.com/content/76180c9e-4880-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb
Interesting that the FT’s liberal Tehran correspondent is now making the case for Trump supporters, namely that increased pressure on the Islamic Republic will lead to regime collapse. The FT itself has so far supported the JCPOA.
Leader: Trump’s speech against Iran ‘silly and superficial’: http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/05/09/561123/Iran-Ali-Shamkhani-Pakistan
“We accepted the JCPOA, but enmities with the Islamic Republic did not end. Now they raise the issue of our presence in the region and the issue of missiles. If we accept them too, they will bring up another issue,” Ayatollah Khamenei said.