Donald Trump speaks with reporters in Florida, May 2, 2026
EA on International Outlets: US-Israel War — Iran Calls Trump’s Bluff
UPDATE, MAY 7:
I joined India’s FirstPost on Wednesday afternoon to analyze the latest developments around Iran’s 14-point proposal to end the US-Israel War.
I consider Donald Trump’s sudden abandonment of “Project Freedom” in the Strait of Hormuz. I take apart his declaration that a deal is imminent, noting Tehran’s maneuvers over a US counter-proposal and the possibility of negotiations.
I begin by answering, “Has this military assault on Iran succeeded or failed?”
It’s a complete failure. Let’s cut through the white noise and rhetoric and go through this point by point.
Watch from 5:58:
ORIGINAL ENTRY, MAY 3: I joined India’s WION on Sunday afternoon to analyze the US-Israel War on Iran and Tehran’s latest 14-point proposal to end it.
Beginning with the call to push aside Donald Trump’s rhetoric and focus on reality, I consider how Iran seized the diplomatic initiative with its two-stage initiative: linking its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz with a long-term ceasefire and end to the US blockade in the first stage, and then moving to discussions of Tehran’s nuclear programme.
I note how the Trump Administration continues to be caught between its only two options of putting in ground troops or accepting talks and possible compromise.
And I explain how domestic pressure — when? — is likely to push the Administration into the negotiations.
I think at this point Trump is still protected by Republicans from being forced to accept Congress having a say in this war.
But come back to me in two weeks. If there is no movement, if oil and gas prices continue to rise, and if Iran still has control of the Strait of Hormuz, you might reach a tipping point where Republicans finally say to Trump, “You can’t have this all your way because it is not going very well.”
Watch from 3:32:
CIA believes Iran still has 70% of its missiles: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/05/07/cia-intelligence-iran-trump-blockade-missiles/
“Three sources familiar with a confidential CIA report for the US administration confirmed this information. “Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles,” one official was quoted as saying…. Almost all of its underground storage facilities have reportedly been restored and reopened as well.”
From the Washington Post article cited: https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2026/05/06/iran-us-bases-satellite-images/
“The Post’s review represents only a partial count of the damage based on available satellite imagery……A U.S. official said that damage at the Naval Support Activity in Bahrain is “extensive” and that the headquarters there relocated to MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida, the home of U.S. Central Command. It is unlikely that troops, contractors or civilian employees will return to the base “anytime soon,” the official said. Two other officials said U.S. forces may never return to regional bases in large numbers, though no final decision has been made.”