Iranians celebrate the ceasefire in Israel’s war, Tehran, June 25, 2025 (Atta Kenare/AFP)
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I joined India’s WION on Thursday morning to analyze a tenuous ceasefire in Israel’s war on Iran.
I navigate the politics in Israel, Iran, and the US to assess:
The Iranian regime wants the ceasefire because it is badly damaged. Indeed, it is fighting for its survival.
At this point, Donald Trump and the Trump Administration want the ceasefire because US involvement in the war is threatening to cause domestic difficulties, dividing his supporters.
Members of the Netanyahu Government do not want the ceasefire but unless Trump switches to supporting their attacks, they don’t have the leverage to keep this going.
So it is critical to watch Trump because he has flip-flopped several times in the past week. If he suddenly decides there need to be more strikes on Iran, Israel would have space to renew attacks.
I also evaluate, using evidence, what we know and don’t know about damage to Iranian nuclear sites from US strikes on Saturday.
Watch from 2:23:
Why Israel’s attacks are backfiring as Iranians rally around the flag: https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/israel-attacks-are-backfiring-iranians-rally-around-flag-why
“Israel appears to have forgotten a lesson from the Iraqi invasion of Iran in 1980. Instead of inducing regime change, it led to the people of Iran rallying behind the Islamic Republic in the name of nationalism, not necessarily out of love for the clerical elite. Rather than fuelling internal dissent, Israel’s recent strikes have similarly sparked a resurgence of nationalist feeling – centred not on support for the regime, but on defence of the nation. There have been public mourning ceremonies and online tributes. Even some of those once aligned with the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement have begun expressing solidarity with those they now frame as “defenders of the homeland”. In working-class neighbourhoods and rural areas, where opposition movements had struggled to gain a foothold, such sentiments are even stronger…………… The level of domestic unity being observed, especially in contrast to past periods of internal unrest – such as the 2019 fuel protests or the Amini demonstrations – suggests that Israel might have inadvertently provided the Islamic Republic with a powerful political gift: a moment of cohesion, a common enemy, and a temporary suspension of internal divisions.”