Wreckage of a downed Indian warplane in the compound of a mosque in Pampore, Indian-controlled Kashmir, May 7, 2025 (Dar Yasin/AP)
I joined Dublin NewsTalk and India’s FirstPost on Wednesday to analyze the escalation in violence between Indian and Pakistan over the disputed territory of Kashmir.
Two weeks ago, armed militants based in Pakistan killed at least 26 tourists in Kashmir. Overnight, Indian warplanes claimed successful strikes on militant camps. Pakistan countered that civilians had been slain and that some of India’s fighter jets had been downed, even though they had remained in Indian airspace.
I set out the 78-year background to the conflict, past tensions that have threatened to become wars, and the competing visions of India and Pakistan, as well as the desire of some in Kashmir for independence.
Without making any predictions, I set out the aspects and calculations that could escalate the confrontation — or that could bring a step back. These include the economic and political situation in each country, the leaders’ manipulation of “national pride”, and the possibility of any third countries acting as a mediator.
Listen to Dublin NewsTalk
In a 10-minute chat with Ciara Kelly, I negotiate the possible outcomes.
In 2019, both sides backed off and logic would say that, for their interests, they should back off this time.
India is promoting itself as a global power, politically and economically. Just yesterday, it signed a major trade agreement the UK. To go to war with Pakistan would undo much of that.
Pakistan has had serious political and economic issues for years. To go to war with a powerful neighbor would exacerbate these.
But logic doesn’t always dictate what happens, particularly when you have leaders on both sides thumping their chests and expressing “pride”.
Watch FirstPost
An 8-minute assessment this morning, offering a balanced perspective on an ardently pro-India channel:
Indian warplanes did not cross into Pakistani airspace. Would they do so in the next attack? And would Pakistan respond by going into Indian airspace?
The hope is that for the sake of the people of Kashmir, of India, and of Pakistan, everybody takes a step back.
If you have an escalation of this violence, there will be no winners.
