Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump in New York City, September 27, 2024

EA on ABC and BBC: The Trump-Putin Call on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Wednesday’s Coverage: Putin Plays Trump Like A Fiddle

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1822 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has clarified that he did not discuss the possibility of US ownership of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in the south of the country.

The White House said in its readout of Wednesday’s call, “Trump said that the United States could be very helpful in running those plants with its electricity and utility expertise. American ownership of those plants would be the best protection for that infrastructure and support for Ukrainian energy infrastructure.”

Zelensky initially said that Zaporizhzhia, the largest nuclear plant in Europe, was the only facility discussed. He added during a visit to Norway that the discussion was over “how to find the solution from the situation and…take the station from the Russians”.

There are options for the US to be involved in modernizing or developing the plant, but “the issue of property, we did not discuss”.

UPDATE 1525 GMT:

At a summit in Brussels, European Union leaders have agreed after “a quick exchange” with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky:

[We] discussed the situation on the ground in Ukraine and the state of play of the US-led talks. There was a shared view that no real negotiations are taking place at the moment.

They said the EU remains “ready to step up further pressure on Russia,” including new sanctions and tougher enforcement of existing restrictions.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky added during a visit with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, “We need to continue pressure on Russia so that Putin stops manipulations and makes the concrete steps that all the world wants, agreeing first to a limited ceasefire and then expanding it further.”

He explained, “Everybody saw that Ukraine unconditionally agrees to [this process], and we wait until the aggressor accepts this.”

UPDATE 1520 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has responded to the latest Russian drone attacks.

Russian strikes on Ukraine do not stop, despite their propaganda claims. Every day and every night, nearly a hundred or more drones are launched, along with ongoing missile attacks. With each such launch, the Russians expose to the world their true attitude towards peace.

Yet always — even under the most difficult conditions — our people can count on the immediate support of the State Emergency Service personnel, police officers, medics, utility workers, and all those who help to clear the rubble, extinguish fires, restore the destroyed, and most importantly, save and protect lives.

UPDATE 1517 GMT:

UK Ministry of Defense analysts assess that amid Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraie from February 2022, “the Russian armed forces have likely sustained approximately 900,000 casualties (killed and wounded)”.

The analysts find it “likely” that “200,000 to 250,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, Russia’s largest losses since the Second World War”.

Russian President Putin and the Russian military leadership highly likely prioritise their conflict objectives over the lives of Russian soldiers. They are almost certainly prepared to tolerate continuously high casualty rates so long as this does not negatively affect public or elite support for the war, and those losses can be replaced.

UPDATE 1005 GMT:

The European Commission has sent an additional €1 billion in financial assistance (MFA) to Ukraine, to be repaid with proceeds from frozen Russian assets.

“We are helping the country’s economy stay on course and rebuild critical infrastructure damaged by Russian aggression,” announced Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

The Macro-Financial Assistance fund has €18.1 billion ($19.6 billion), the EU’s contribution to a G7-led initiative that aims to provide Ukraine with €45 billion ($48.8 billion) in financial support.

The European Commission has disbursed €4 billion ($4.3 billion) to Ukraine under the MFA since the start of 2024.

UPDATE 0958 GMT:

Russia has issued another ultimatum for any halt to its 37-month, full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The Secretary of the State Security Council, Sergey Shoygu, says Ukraine’s Constitution must be changed as it does not permit territorial changes that would confirm Moscow’s “annexation” of Crimea and four other regions.

“On Ukraine’s part, the main obstacle is the Constitution. Their Constitution prohibits any negotiations regarding changes in territory,” Shoygu told journalists.

The Ukrainian Constitution states that the “territory of Ukraine within its present border is indivisible and inviolable”.

UPDATE 0947 GMT:

At least five civilians have been killed and 26 injured by the latest Russian attacks on Ukraine.

Two people were killed in the Kherson region in southern Ukraine, and one each in the Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions in the east and northeast.

At least 10 civilians, including four children, were injured in a Russian attack on 20 homes and residential blocs in Kropyvnytskyi in the Kirovohrad region in central Ukraine (see 0658 GMT).

Air defenses downed 75 of 171 drones, and 63 were lost to electronic counter-measures.

UPDATE 0727 GMT:

Politico has identified the four “senior members” of the Trump camp who held secret talks with the political opposition in Ukraine, possibly to sound out the replacement of President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The quartet were Donald Trump Jr.; Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner; Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff; and far-right, pro-Kremlin polemicist Tucker Carlson.

Politico posted two weeks ago that the Trumpists spoke with former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and senior members of the party of former President Petro Poroshenko, Zelensky’s immediate predecessor.

The discussions centered on whether Ukraine could soon hold Presidential elections, even though they are prohibited under the martial law declared because of Russia’s invasion.

They took place as Donald Trump labelled Zelenskyy a “dictator without elections” and lied that the President has only “4%” support.

In latest polls, Zelensky has an approval rating of 58% and leads his nearest challenger — Valery Zaluzhny, a former military commander-in-cheif who is now Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain — by more than 20% in any potential vote. Only 10% back Poroshenko, and Tymoshenko has just 5.7%.

The opposition leaders distanced themselves from the Trump initiative. Poroshenko said elections should only happen after peace had been established, with a vote no later than 180 days after the end of the war. Tymoshenko agreed while saying her team “is talking with all our allies who can help in securing a just peace as soon as possible”.

A “Republican foreign policy expert” said of the quarter’s mission:

They see Zelensky as an impediment.

How do you undercut Zelenskyy and make him more compliant? Well, you engage his political adversaries, and you show him that the United States has other Ukrainian partners and other options.

But I think that much of the Trump world, or at least some of the Trump world, is delusional in thinking they can anoint someone in Ukraine to be their partner and to electorally succeed in the short-to-medium term whenever elections take place.

It’s very much a lack of understanding of Ukraine.

UPDATE 0716 GMT:

Ukrainian drones have reportedly struck Russia’s Engels-2 airbase.

Residents reported explosions near the airbase in the Saratov region around 4 a.m.

Governor Roman Busargin said the drone attack was the heaviest during Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with evacuation of those living near the airfield.

Busargin said windows were blown out in a clinical hospital, two kindergartens, and a school.

UPDATE 0705 GMT:

State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce says the US Government did not delete data from investigations of Ukrainian children abducted by Russians.

Last week the Trump Administration terminated funding of the work of the Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab, using tools such as satellite imagery and analysis of open-source technology and biometric data, to identify and locate abducted children.

Bruce insisted, “The data exists, it was not in the State Department’s control. It was the people running that framework, we know who was running the data and the website we know fully that the data exists and [it has] not been deleted and [is] not missing.”

In December, the Lab’s report identified 314 Ukrainian children who had been placed in Russia’s “systematic program of coerced adoption and fostering”. Presenting the findings to the UN Security Council, Executive Director Nathaniel Raymond said the abductions may constitute “crimes against humanity under customary international law”.

See also Ukraine War, Day 1,015: Putin’s Aircraft and Funds Used in Deportations of Children

The documentation has been shared with the International Criminal Court, which has issued arrest warrants against Vladimir Putin and Russia’s “Children’s Rights” Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova, over the deportations of the minors.

UPDATE 0658 GMT:

At least 10 civilians, including four children, have been injured in a Russian attack on Kropyvnytskyi in the Kirovohrad region in central Ukraine.

One victim is in critical condition with surface burns to 90% of their body.

Governor Andrii Raikovych said more than 20 drones were launched in the “largest attack in recent years” on homes and residential buildings in the city.

Railway infrastructure was damaged.

UPDATE 0646 GMT:

The European Union’s executive has approved a €150 billion ($163.5 billion) loans program to buy more weapons in the bloc and from allied countries, rather than from the US.

The US, UK, and Turkey will be excluded from contracts under the program unless they sign a security and defense partnership agreement with the EU.

The plan stipulates that 65% of the costs of equipment funded must come from suppliers in the EU, Norway, or Ukraine. The rest can be spent in non-EU countries with a security agreement.

The European Commission said Russia will remain “a fundamental threat to Europe’s security for the foreseeable future”. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told reporters, “We don’t have a cold war, but we have a hot war on European soil, and the threat is existential. It’s as real as it can get.”

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky reclaimed the diplomatic initiative over Russia’s invasion in an hour-long call with Donald Trump on Wednesday.

Only hours after Trump’s call with Vladimir Putin, Zelensky returned the focus to US-Ukraine discussions with the agreement that “Ukraine and the United States should continue working together to achieve a real end to the war and lasting peace”.

The President confirmed Ukraine’s readiness to implement the halt to attacks on energy infrastructure. He endorsed the US proposal of an unconditional ceasefire on the frontline, which has not been accepted by Putin.

Zelensky raised the possibility of the US bolstering air defenses, and he highlighted agreement on US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia — parallelling those between the Trump Administration and the Kremlin — in the near future: “We instructed our teams to resolve technical issues related to implementing and expanding the partial ceasefire.”

Hailing the “positive, very substantive, and frank conversation”, Zelensky posted:

I thanked President Trump and the American people for their support. I stressed that Ukrainians want peace, which is why Ukraine accepted the proposal for an unconditional ceasefire. I highlighted the importance of President Trump’s concept of peace through strength.

A US Security Guarantee Via Power Plants?

The White House readout echoed Zelensky’s summary of the “fantastic” conversation, with Trump agreeing to “find what was available” for air defense, but it added an important paragraph.

Trump also discussed Ukraine’s electrical supply and nuclear power plants. He said that the United States could be very helpful in running those plants with its electricity and utility expertise. American ownership of those plants would be the best protection for that infrastructure and support for Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

US ownership of the plants could lead to a de facto security guarantee to ensure their protection. It could also put pressure on Russia to end its occupation of the Zaporhizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest, which it overran in southern Ukraine in March 2022.

Speaking to reporters later, Zelensky clarified, “We have received signals from the United States that we are talking about the ceasefire on energy facilities, so not to attack energy infrastructure, and we are also talking about the civilian infrastructure facilities.”

He said he and Trump discussed only the Zaporizhzhia plant; however, Ukrainian officials are drawing up a list of facilities that can be included.

Kremlin in a Bind over Energy Ultimatum?

Meanwhile, the Kremlin appeared to be running into trouble over their ultimata to Ukraine and Putin’s attempt to sway Trump in their call.

Both Trump and Zelensky said the partial ceasefire accepted by Putin is over other infrastructure as well as energy facilities.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov insisted that only the energy sector was covered, leaving Russia free to attack other civilian sites.

Early Wednesday, soon after the Putin-Trump call, the Russians launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles, four S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, and 145 drones on 12 Ukrainian regions.

The Kremlin also reiterated its ultimatum for “the complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence to Kyiv”.

Trump denied that he had spoken about this with Putin: “No, we didn’t talk about aid, actually, we didn’t talk about aid at all. We talked about a lot of things but aid was never discussed.”

Peskov responded, “The need to halt arms supplies to Kyiv was discussed during Putin and Trump’s conversation.”

Having publicly contradicted Trump, he said the the cutoff will be “high on the agenda in negotiations between Russia and the US, but the topic will not be discussed publicly”.