Vladimir Putin greets Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko, Moscow, Russia, March 13, 2025

EA-Times Radio VideoCast: What Happens If Putin Rejects Ukraine-US Ceasefire Proposal?

Thursday’s Coverage: Putin Signals No Ceasefire

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1653 GMT:

A UN investigation has concluded that Russia has committed crimes against humanity, including forced disappearances and torture, in its invasion of Ukraine.

The crimes were “part of a widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population and pursuant to a coordinated state policy”, said the UN’s Independent International Commission of Inquiry.

The investigators cited the large numbers of civilians detained by Russian occupation. Moscow’s authorities “committed additional violations and crimes during these prolonged detentions. Many victims have been missing for months and years, and some died in captivity.”

The most brutal abuses were committed during interrogations, but Russian authorities had also “systematically used sexual violence as a form of torture against male detainees”.

The commission also examined Russian troops executing or wounding captured or surrendering Ukrainian troops: “Testimonies of soldiers who deserted from the Russian armed forces indicate that there is a policy not to take prisoners but to kill them instead.”

UPDATE 1629 GMT:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has posted a thread marking Military Volunteer Day, referring to maneuvers with Europe and the Trump Administration to halt Russia’s 36 1/2-month invasion.

He said of the Ukraine-US proposal for a 30-day interim ceasefire:

Of course, we think about security guarantees….But the first step is necessary. We support our American partners and President Trump in this. We want to trust America and its President. Ukraine is ready to act quickly and constructively. And we have warned that the only side that will try to sabotage everything will not be us.

He said of Vladimir Putin’s response, “He’s putting forward some conditions that clearly show he does not want any ceasefire. He needs war – this has always been obvious, and it is obvious now.”

As Trump recycled Putin’s falsehood that Ukraine’s forces are surrounded in the Kursk region in western Russia, Zelensky emphasized:

Putin is lying about the real situation on the battlefield, he is lying about the casualties, he is lying about the true state of his economy, which has been damaged by his foolish imperial ambitions, and he is doing everything possible to ensure that diplomacy fails.

Putin cannot exit this war because that would leave him with nothing. That is why he is now doing everything he can to sabotage diplomacy by setting extremely difficult and unacceptable conditions right from the starteven before a ceasefire.

Putin will try to drag everyone into endless discussions…wasting days, weeks, and months on meaningless talks while his guns continue to kill people.

Zelensky reminded, “We need peace. Real peace. And we must not let the war drag on,” asking for pressure on Russia.

UPDATE 1424 GMT:

China’s State oil companies are restricting purchases of Russian supplies due to new US sanctions.

The largest, Sinopec, has stopped supplies completely, as has Zhenhua Oil. PetroChina and CNOOC bought reduced volumes.

Seaborne shipments of Russian oil to China fell to 969,000 barrels per day in February, the lowest figure since December 2022.

The US tightened sanctions on January 10 on Russia’s oil, in one of the last acts of the Biden Administration.

A Sinopec official said the company conducting additional sanctions checks and waiting for a “clear picture” of a possible Russian-American agreement over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Sinopec will resume supplies if the talks lead to a relaxation or lifting of US sanctions.

Sinopec is making up the shortfall in Russian imports by shipping from West Africa, the Middle East, and Brazil.

UPDATE 1344 GMT:

Donald Trump has said his envoy Steve Witkoff had “very good and productive discussions” with Vladimir Putin, and insisted that “there is a very good chance that this horrible, bloody war can finally come to an end”.

Trump said he asked the lives of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region “be spared”.

UPDATE 1222 GMT:

The Kremlin has expressed “cautious optimism” after Vladimir Putin met Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff on Thursday night.

Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Witkoff had “presented additional information to the Russian side” and that Putin “passed along information and additional signals for President Trump”.

Trying to lure Trump into public support of Moscow’s position, Peskov said the outcome of the talks would only become after Witkoff had briefed Trump and after Putin had spoke with Trump — however, the spokesman said the Kremlin had not yet set a time for the call.

US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz told Fox TV that the White House also had “some cautious optimism”. Witkoff is “bringing things back for us to evaluate and for President Trump to make decisions on next steps”.

He played down Putin’s refusal of a ceasefire at a news conference on Thursday: “Of course, both sides are going to have their demands, and of course both sides are going to have to make some compromises.”

UPDATE 1023 GMT:

As part of its 18th military aid package to Ukraine, Sweden is providing 18 Archer self-propelled artillery systems and five Arthur radar systems.

Stockholm will also fund Ukrainian weapon and ammunition production, and it is joining the artillery coalition under the Ukraine Defense Contact Group to coordinate and supply Ukraine’s defense forces with modern artillery systems, ammunition, and training.

On Thursday, Finland announced another €200m ($217m) aid package for Ukraine, as it signed a new memorandum of understanding with Kyiv on defense cooperation, including provisions on data sharing, ammunition production, and joint defense projects.

UPDATE 1016 GMT:

European Union diplomats have agreed to extend sanctions for six months against around 2,000 Russians, including Vladimir Putin, senior politicians, and business people.

Following a threat by Hungary to veto the list, three people were removed. Another was removed because of the weakness of the legal case for sanctions.

UPDATE 1002 GMT:

Ukrainian drones have hit two gas compressor stations and a warehouse storing missiles for Russia’s S-300/S-400 air defense systems.

A security official said the gas compressor stations are in Russia’s Tambov and Saratov regions. The missile depot was near the village of Radkovka in the Belgorod region in western Ukraine.

“The [State security service] SBU conducted another successful special operation on enemy territory, causing significant damage to Russia’s budget and reducing its ability to finance and sustain the war,” the official said.

UPDATE 0955 GMT:

The US is preparing to resume delivery of long-range Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs to Ukraine, say “sources familiar with the weapon”.

A stockpile of the GLSDBs, upgraded to more effectively counter Russian jamming, is already in Europe.

The GLSDB’s delivery was announced by the Biden Administration in February 2023, with first supplies arriving in Ukraine in February 2024. Last week, the Trump Administration briefly halted all military aid to Kyiv, lifting the suspension on Tuesday when the US and Ukraine agreed on a proposal for a 30-day interim ceasefire.

The GLSDB has a range of 160 kilometers (100 miles).

UPDATE 0845 GMT:

Classified US intelligence reports assess that Vladimir Putin is still pursuing maximalist objectives for the domination of Ukraine, according to “people familiar with the analysis”.

A secret assessment distributed to policymakers in the Trump Administration, dated March 6, says Putin is determined to control Kyiv through the 36 1/2-month, full-scale invasion.

“Western security officials” said earlier this week that Vladimir Putin has deliberately set “maximalist” demands on territorial concessions, peacekeepers, and Ukraine’s neutrality, knowing they are likely unacceptable to Kyiv and European nations.

One official summarized to the Washington Post, “He has a long-standing desire to restore ‘Mother Russia’.”

UPDATE 0831 GMT:

Russia’s destruction of the Nova Kakhova dam in southern Ukraine in June 2023 set off a “toxic timebomb” of environmental damage, scientists have established.

Russian forces blew up the dam to slow a Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson region.

Lakebed sediments with 83,000 tons of heavy metals were exposed by the demolition. Less than 1% of the highly toxic heavy metals, such as lead, cadmium, and nickel, – are likely to have been released when the reservoir drained. Instead, they leached into rivers, whose waters are widely used to make up for shortages in municipal supplies.

Lead researcher Oleksandra Shumilova, of the Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, summarized:

All these pollutants that were deposited on the bottom can accumulate in different organisms, pass through the food web, and spread from vegetation to animals to humans. Its consequences can be compared to the effects of radiation.

The researchers estimated the dam’s destruction, flooding the region and killed 84 people, killed 20% to 30% of floodplain rodents and the entire juvenile fish stock.

UPDATE 0718 GMT:

Ukraine forces have fallen back farther in the Kursk region in western Russia.

Officials ordered the mandatory evacuation of eight villages near the Kursk border with the Sumy region in northern Ukraine due to “the exacerbation of the operational situation” and “constant shelling by Russia”.

The Russians have regained about 70% of the territory of the 1,300 square km (500 square miles) taken by Ukraine in a cross-border incursion last August. Earlier this week, Moscow’s forces moved back into the city of Sudzha.

Ukraine’s military commander-in-chief, Gen. Oleksandr Syrski, said on Wednesday: “In the most difficult situation, my priority has been and remains saving the lives of Ukrainian soldiers. To this end, the units of the defense forces, if necessary, maneuver to more favourable positions.”

Russia’s gains in Kursk may be coming at the expense of its offensive in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, where its gradual advance has stalled in recent days.

ÒRIGINAL ENTRY: Vladimir Putin effectively dismissed the Ukraine-US proposal for a 30-day interim ceasefire on Thursday.

At a press conference alongside visiting Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko, Putin indicated that Russia’s ultimata to Kyiv over would have to be accepted.

We agree with the proposal for a ceasefire to cease hostilities, but we proceed from the fact that this ceasefire should lead to an enduring peace, and should remove the root causes of this crisis.

The Russian did not spell out “root causes”, but the Kremlin has insisted that its “annexation” of Crimea and four other regions — Donetsk and Luhansk in the east and Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in the south has to be accepted. Ukraine must be “neutral” and “demilitarized”, with no security guarantees from partners. Sanctions must be removed on Moscow.

Russian officials have even indicated that the Zelensky Government must be removed.

Putin said a ceasefire would give Ukraine a chance to rearm and regain momentum at a time when he claims Russia is advancing. He questioned who would oversee the ceasefire.

Then he dangled to Donald Trump the prize of direct contact:

So the idea is good, and we absolutely support it, but there are issues we need to discuss and I think we need to negotiate with our American colleagues and partners, maybe a phone call with President Trump.

Lukashenko added the warning, “If Russia agrees with the United States, Ukraine and Europe will be done for.”

Putin tried to pull back the threat:

If Russia and America agree to cooperate on energy — this is a pun because a pipeline in Russian means also being done for, so this will be to Europe’s benefit, because they will get cheap Russian gas. So they will have a pipeline.

As the audience laughed at the correction, Lukashenko assured, “That’s what I meant.”

“Yes, that’s what I thought you did,” said Putin.

Trump cautiously welcomed Putin’s rejection. He said his Russian friend had “made a very promising statement, but it was not complete”.

We will see if Russia agrees, and if not, it will be a very disappointing moment. I would like to see a ceasefire from Russia. We hope that Russia will do the right thing.

Putin was scheduled to meet Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, in Moscow on Thursday evening.

The Kremlin has demanded that Trump’s envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, have no role in US-Russia talks.

Zelensky: “Now is the Time to Increase Pressure on Putin”

In his nightly video address to the nation, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted Putin’s tactics: “We now have all heard from Putin’s very predictable, very manipulative words in response to the idea of a ceasefire.”

Putin was “afraid to say directly to President Trump that he wants to continue this war”, Zelensky said. The Russian was “framing the idea of a ceasefire with such preconditions that nothing will work out at all, or for as long as possible”.

We are not setting conditions that complicate the process — Russia is. As we have always said, the only one stalling, the only one being unconstructive, is Russia. They need this war. Putin has stolen years of peace and continues this war day after day.

Zelensky concluded, “Now is the time to increase pressure on him. Sanctions must be applied — ones that will work.”