Vladimir Putin in the Kursk region in western Russia, March 12, 2025

Wednesday’s Coverage: Putin Signals No Ceasefire

In a 13-minute VideoCast, I joined Times Radio on Wednesday to evaluate what could happen in the likely event that Vladimir Putin rejects a Ukraine-US proposal for a 30-day interim ceasefire of Russia’s invasion.

I begin by assessing Putin’s likely tactics:

When Putin rejects the proposal, probably to Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff on Friday in Moscow, he’ll couch it in terms that are flattering to Trump: Trump is the man who can bring peace, he is the man who is a great leader.

He’ll say, “We’re not rejecting peace. We just don’t think this is the way forward for the settlement.”

I put this in the context of Trump’s relationship with the Russian leader: from his desire in 2013 to get a face-to-face encounter by bringing the Miss Universe pageant to Moscow to the 2017 conversation in Germany where Putin explained that Ukraine is part of Greater Russia.

“What Putin will dangle to Trump at the end of this is the photo opportunity,” I summarize.

So what does this mean for the “adults in the room” in the Trump Administration who are trying to give some support to defense of Ukraine?

If Putin rejects the ceasefire, do they tell Trump that the Russians are trying to play him? Do they say it’s too risky and play to Trump’s ego?

That’s the uncertainty.

When you can get American officials who are not playing to Trump’s ego and are not scared what he will do to them, then you get some measure of diplomacy to deal with this Russian invasion. When you have Trump officials who feel he is watching them or even seeking retribution upon them, then they rein themselves in.