Leaders at a summit on Ukraine’s security, Paris, France, March 27, 2025

Thursday’s Coverage: Kyiv and US Agree Black Sea Ceasefire…But Russia Issues Demands

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1356 GMT:

North Korea has sent an additional 3,000 troops to bolster Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, says South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The soldiers were sent between January and February, covering North Korean losses from their initial deployment last autumn.

Pyongyang sent around 12,000 troops, reinforcing Russian forces trying to regain Ukraine-controlled parts of Kursk in western Russia.

Around 4,000 have been killed or wounded, say South Korean, Ukrainian, and US intelligence services.

Russia’s Secretary of the State Security Council, Sergey Shoygu, met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang last week.

UPDATE 1343 GMT:

Russia’s lead negotiator in talks with the US, Georgii Karasin, says the discussions in Saudi Arabia were “not very productive”.

He declared that any expectation of breakthroughs is “naïve”.

The two sides discussed Russia’s access to ports for agricultural exports and reconnecting Rosselkhozbank to the Swift global transactions system.

UPDATE 1230 GMT:

The US State Department is restoring short-term funding to a program documenting the abduction and forced deportation of Ukrainian children by Russia.

A spokesperson said the restoration would allow Yale University’s Humanitarian Research Lab to transfer essential data to authorities, including for the investigation of possible war crimes.

However, the Department made clear that it is not reversing the Trump Administration’s termination of the program.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed, “The program is not funded. It was part of the reductions that were made”.

The initiative uses biometric data and satellite imagery to track the seizures of the children. Officials have confirmed that at least 19,500 Ukrainian juveniles have been deported, and only about 1,200 returned.

UPDATE 1219 GMT:

At least four civilians were killed and 22 injured by Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day.

Three of the fatalities and 12 of the wounded were in the Kherson region in southern Ukraine.

The other fatality was in the Donetsk region in the east. Casualties were also recorded in the Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Air defenses downed 89 of 163 drones launched by Russia overnight. Another 51 were lost to electronic counter-measures.

UPDATE 0755 GMT:

Vladimir Putin has demanded the removal of the Zelensky Government before agreeing to any halt of Russia’s 37-month full-scale invasion.

Putin said in an address on Thursday, “It is still not clear with whom to sign certain documents, and it is still not clear what power they have, because tomorrow other leaders will come…through elections.”

He insisted on the installation of a temporary government, under the supervision of the UN and several nations, which would hold the elections.

Ukraine’s Constitution prohibits a vote during martial law, which was introduced in February 2022 at the outset of Putin’s invasion.

UPDATE 0742 GMT:

The Trump Administration has presented yet another proposal to take control of rare earth minerals in Ukraine.

Under the new plan, the Administration will have first rights to purchase resources, recouping all the aid given to Ukraine during Russia’s full-scale invasion — plus 4% annual interest — before any access by Kyiv to profits.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Adminisration hoped to “go to full discussions and perhaps even get signatures next week”.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky noted to reporters that the Administration is “constantly” changing the terms of the proposed deal, but does not want Washington to think that he opposes it.

At the end of February, an agreement was ready for signature under which the US and Ukraine would have 50-50 control of mineral revenues. However, it was scuttled when US Vice President J.D. Vance ambushed Zelensky in a White House encounter, leading to the cancellation of the signing ceremony and eviction of the Ukrainian delegation.

UPDATE 0738 GMT:

A woman and a man have been killed by Russian shelling of a transport station in Kherson city in southern Ukraine.

The attack disrupted railway infrastructure and power supplies disrupted.

A senior Ukrainian official noted Moscow’s effective violation of its commitment not to attack energy infrastructure: “There has been shelling, seemingly not aimed at the energy sector, but the energy sector was affected.”

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Europe’s leaders have implicitly urged the Trump Administration not to lift sanctions on Russia until Moscow ends its 37-month invasion of Ukraine.

In a summit in Paris on Thursday, 31 leaders agreed that the restrictions should not be removed until “peace has clearly been established” in Ukraine.

Amid negotiations with Kyiv and with Moscow, Trump officials have indicated that they might ease the sanctions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s envoy to Russia, real estate developer Steve Witkoff, have hailed “economic opportunities” even though Russia has made no concessions over its seizure of around 25% of Ukraine and is demanding that the rest of the country is kept demilitarized, weak, and “neutral”.

Earlier this week, Russia rejected a Ukraine-US agreement to end attacks in the Black Sea, demanding that sanctions be removed on bank transactions for food and fertilizer exports and that Russian financial institutions be reconnected to the Swift global transactions system.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky told the summit that it is important for countries to speak with a “common voice” as they “push Russia”: “Everybody understood and understands that Russia, today, doesn’t want any kind of peace.”

Afterwards, French President Emmuanuel Macron told reporters:

Ukraine had the courage to accept an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.

Since that Ukrainian announcement, there has been no Russian response. There have just been new conditions posed for a much more limited and hypothetical ceasefire.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer cited “complete clarity” among leaders on the importance of not lifting sanctions. Instead, they had discussed how restrictions could be tightened “to support the US initiative to bring Russia to the table”.

It means increasing the economic pressure on Russia, accelerating new tougher sanctions bearing down on Russia’s energy revenues and working together to make this pressure count.

It’s clear the Russians are filibustering. They are playing games and then playing for time. It is a classic from the Putin playbook.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz agreed that lifting sanctions on Russia would be a grave mistake and “makes no sense” as long as peace had “not actually been achieved – and unfortunately we are still a long way from that”.

No Agreement on Troops for Security Guarantee

The leaders still could not establish a common line on the deployment of troops inside Ukraine to protect any ceasefire.

Zelensky summarized “many questions” and “few answers” on “the actions of this contingent, its responsibilities – what it can do, how it can be used, who will be in charge of it”.

Macron said of “a British-French proposition, desired by Ukraine”: “It does not have unanimity, but we do not need unanimity to do this.”

“Several” European allies were prepared to deploy to Ukraine, the French President said, but some did not “have the necessary capacity” and others were reluctant to put troops on the ground due to the “political context”.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni illustrated Macron’s point, reiterating her refusal to send troops. She said it was “important to continue working with the US” and hoped an American delegation would attend the next coalition summit.

Macron said an Anglo-French delegation will soon travel to Ukraine to discuss Kyiv’s needs. The discussion would include a “strong Ukrainian army…that is well equipped for the day after”.

The UK’s Starmer confirmed the forthcoming visit by French, British, and German army chiefs to Kyiv to assist support of planning, a new defense contact group “to marshal more military aid and keep Ukraine in the fight”.