Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky with Donald Trump, Trump Tower, New York City, September 27, 2024 (Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP)

Monday’s Coverage: Zelensky — Security Guarantees Must Precede Negotiations

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1825 GMT:

In an hour-long interview with The Guardian, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has said, “There are voices which say that Europe could offer security guarantees without the Americans, and I always say no. Security guarantees without America are not real security guarantees.”

UPDATE 1244 GMT:

At least three civilians were killed and at least 23 injured by Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day.

Two people were slain in the Kherson region in southern Ukraine, and one in the neighboring Zaporizhzhia region. Casualties were also reported in the Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk regions.

Air defenses downed 57 of 124 drones launched by Russia overnight on 11 regions, and another 64 were lost to electronic counter-measures.

The Russians also fired up to 19 cruise, ballistic, and guided missiles from aerial, ground, and sea-based platforms, targeting gas production facilities.

The Naftogaz facilities were damaged in the Poltava region in central Ukraine.

UPDATE 1211 GMT:

Ukraine’s General Staff has confirmed its responsibility for the overnight drone strike on the Saratov oil refinery in southwest Russia, around 1,500 km (930 miles) from the border.

“The refinery mainly produces gasoline, fuel oil, and diesel fuel. In total, more than 20 types of oil products,” the General Staff said, emphasizing that the facility supplies Russian occupation forces in Ukraine.

The full extent of damage is being determined, the General Staff added.

UPDATE 0843 GMT:

Ukraine has carried out an overnight drone strike on the Saratov oil refinery in southwest Russia.

Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, said the target is crucial in supplying fuel to the Russian military: “The Saratov Oil Refinery is one of the key facilities in Russia’s fuel infrastructure. Its refining capacity reaches 7 million tons of oil annually.”

Saratov Governor Roman Busargin confirmed that drones struck an industrial facility in the region but did not say if it was the oil refinery.

UPDATE 0839 GMT:

Russia launched airstrikes on Ukraine’s power grid overnight, forcing implementaton of emergency outages.

“At night, Russia attacked gas infrastructure. As of this morning, the energy sector is still under attack,” Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko said.

The production facilities of the Naftogaz Group in the Poltava region in central Ukraine were damaged.

“We are grateful to all our colleagues who continue to produce, store, and supply gas to all categories of consumers in this extremely difficult time,” said Naftogaz CEO Roman Chumak.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Donald Trump has proclaimed that Ukraine “may be Russian someday”, amid Moscow’s 35 1/2-month invasion.

In an interview with Fox TV broadcast Monday, Trump also demanded the handover by Kyiv of $500 billion of rare earth minerals.

Rambling on a series of topics, Trump said, “They may make a deal, they may not make a deal. They may be Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday.”

He then portrayed Ukraine agreeing to the transfer of the minerals in return for past US assistance:

We are going to have all this money in there, and I say I want it back. And I told them that I want the equivalent, like $500bn worth of rare earth. And they have essentially agreed to do that, so at least we don’t feel stupid.

Since last autumn, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has spoken of supplying minerals to the US in return for future aid. He told Reuters in an interview broadcast last weekend, “If we are talking about a deal, then let’s do a deal, we are only for it. Protecting Ukraine also means protecting these resources.”

See also Ukraine War, Day 1,081: Zelensky — I’m Ready for Deal with Trump on Rare Earth Minerals

Earlier in the day, Zelensky indicated that he would meet high-level American officials at the Munich Security Conference this weekend. Further talks may follow in Kyiv.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice President J.D. Vance, and Trump’s envoy Keith Kellogg are attending the conference. Zelensky spokesperson Sergiy Nikiforov told AFP that the President will meet with Vance on Friday. Trump said he will dispatch Kellogg to Ukraine for discussions.

In his nightly video address to the nation, Zelensky spoke of preparations for talks with both European and American partners.

It is crucial that we all work together to bring about real peace and effective security guarantees—the security of our people, our state, our economic relations, and, importantly, our resource resilience — not just for Ukraine, but for the entire free world.

US Envoy Kellogg: Weapons Aid to Continue

Kellogg struck a different note from Trump on Monday, noting that US weapons deliveries approved under the Biden Administration are continuing: “There’s not necessarily any need in the next 24 hours to [do] it any different.”

“Two people with knowledge of the matter” said the Trump Administration will push European countries to buy more American weapons for Ukraine, ahead of potential negotiations with Reuters. They said Kellogg will discuss the plan with the Europeans during the Munich Security Conference.

Kellogg would not confirm the plan in his interview with Reuters, but he hinted, “The US always likes selling weapons made in America because it strengthens our economy. There are a lot of options out there. Everything is in play right now.”

On Sunday, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said, “I think an underlying principle here is that the Europeans have to own this conflict going forward.”

In contrast to Trump’s previous declarations of “ending the war” in Ukraine “within 24 hours”, Kellogg spoke cautiously about negotiations:

“I wouldn’t say we’re at the beginning of the [process] because we’ve been thinking through it,” the envoy said. He explained that US officials in Munich would “deliver our expectations to the allies….More importantly, we want to hear from them.”