Monday’s Coverage: Putin’s Ally Lukashenko “Wins” 86.8% in Belarus “Election”


Map: Institute for the Study of War


UPDATE 2204 GMT:

NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary-General James Appathurai says Russia’s sabotage operations in Europe included threats to assassinate weapons industry leaders, notably German manufacturer Rheinmetall’s CEO Armin Papperger.

Addressing the European Parliament, Appathurai confirmed the threats against Papperger, discovered in July 2024 by US and German intelligence.

He said the campaign included “derailment of trains, acts of arson, attacks on politicians’ property, threats to plot to assassinate industry leaders like, publicly, the head of Rheinmetall, but there were other plots as well”.

Appathurai said the West sometimes succeeded in stopping Russia from committing acts of sabotage by setting red lines at the highest level. He cited the interception of incendiary devices destined for DHL flights, detected in a German warehouse.

Appathurai said NATO assesses the current level of sabotage as a “record high”. Members understand that they “need to be more robust” in responding to recurring incidents, particularly in the Baltic Sea where undersea cables have been damaged.


UPDATE 2152 GMT:

Vladimir Putin has rejected any negotiations with Ukraine, on the pretext that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is “illegitimate” and has no right to sign any documents.

Putin told State TV:

Negotiations can be held with anyone. But due to his illegitimacy, he has no right to sign anything. If he wants to take part in talks, I will delegate people who will conduct such talks. But the issue is the ultimate signing of the documents.

Zelensky responded:


UPDATE 2137 GMT:

Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) has launched a criminal investigation into potential abuse of power by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.

The inquiry stems from Umerov overruling the Defense Procurement Agency’s supervisory board to dismiss director Maryna Bezrukova.

Last Thursday, the supervisory board voted unanimously to extend Bezrukova’s contract for another year. But on Friday, Umerov intervened, appointing State Logistics Operator manager Rustem Zhmadilov.

The supervisory board has the legal authority over hiring and firing of DPA staff. However, the Defense Ministry recently amended the DPA’s charter to allow it to reverse board decisions.

Umerov also dismissed two supervisory board members, Taras Chmut and Yuriy Dzhyhyr.

The Anti-Corruption Action Center filed a complaint with NABU to open an investigation against Umerov.


UPDATE 1143 GMT:

At least four civilians have been killed and at least 24 injured by Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day.

Two people were slain in the Donetsk region in the east, and two in Kherson in the south. Casualties were also reported in the Dnipropetrovsk region in south-central Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia in the south, Odesa in the southwest, Sumy in the north, and Kharkiv in the northeast.

Air defenses downed 65 of 100 drones launched by the Russians overnight on 14 regions. Another 28 decoy drones were lost to electronic counter-measures, and two flew toward Russia and Belarus.


UPDATE 1133 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has suggested a resolution to Russia’s invasion in which Kyiv obtains security guarantees similar to those Israel receives from the US.

“This is not NATO, but it’s on the way to NATO,” Zelensky said. “Israel receives technology, air defense, money.”

The President has been seeking an invitation to NATO as part of the foundation for negotiations to end the 35-month invasion. However, Germany and the Biden Administration in the US — as well as Vladimir Putin’s allies in Hungary and Slovakia — were unwilling to act, and the NATO ministers’ meeting in December ended with no decision.

Zelensky denounced Ukraine’s relinquishing of nuclear weapons, in the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, in return for security guarantees from the US, UK, and Russia.

“In my opinion, it should not have been done, based on the fact that we were attacked,” he told the Italian newspaper Il Foglio.

“It was necessary to exchange for real security guarantees, and at the time, that was only NATO. And to be honest, today, it is only NATO,” he emphasized.

If I were to exchange nuclear weapons, I would exchange them for something very strong that can actually stop any aggressor, regardless of its greatness, its territory, its army. And this would be a strong army and…a security bloc.

Therefore, I believe that it was stupid, absolutely stupid, and illogical.


ORIGINAL ENTRY: The Trump Administration’s freeze on US foreign aid is threatening non-governmental organizations supporting Ukraine’s resistance of Russia’s 35-month invasion.

New Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued the order last Friday for a 90-day freeze and a halt to all programs, except those in Israel and Egypt. It follows Donald Trump’s executive order for the cutoff.

While the command does not affect military assistance for Ukraine, it threatens humanitarian aid and initiatives for economic, financial, and social stability.

“Most of the projects have received an order to stop,” confirmed a staffer at the US Agency for International Development’s mission in Ukraine. Organizations in Ukraine that support veterans, local media, counselling, health care, and cultural events are among those affected.

“We don’t know if it will be completely cancelled or reduced,” the staffer said. He said his organization was supposed to provide several million dollars to half a dozen Ukrainian NGOs, some of which are now at of risk closing.

“Honestly, we still don’t fully understand the scope of the impact this decision will have on the civic sector and everyone affected,” said Olha Kucher, head of the services department at Veteran Hub, an NGO that provides legal help and psychosocial support for Ukrainian soldiers, war veterans, and their families.

Kucher confirmed that Veteran Hub had to pause the work of its branch in Vinnytsia in central Ukraine.

Maria Vorotylo, a soldier’s wife receiving help from Veteran Hub, wrote that the closure was “a very severe blow”. The NGO was “one of the threads that keep many people in good mental health now”.

Trump Suspends Program for Ukraine Refugees

The Trump Administration has suspended the refugee program for Ukrainians, the Citizenship and Immigration Services announced on its website.

The “Uniting for Ukraine” program was halted pursuant to Trump’s executive order on border security.

Uniting for Ukraine allowed Ukrainians to stay in the US for up to two years, working and receiving health insurance. Applicants were obligated to have a sponsor in the US who would financially support them during their stay.

As of the end of 2024, the US had accepted over 200,000 Ukrainians.