Moldova’s Prime Minister Dorin Recean addresses the UN General Assembly in New York, September 27, 2024 (Jeenah Moon/Bloomberg/Getty)
Friday’s Coverage: Europe’s Gas Supplies “Stable” Despite Russian Cutoff
Map: Institute for the Study of War
UPDATE 1524 GMT:
At least five people, including two 2-year-old children, have been injured by a Russian strike on a multi-story residential building in the village of Svesa in the Sumy region in northern Ukraine.
UPDATE 1222 GMT:
Two civilians were killed and 21 injured by Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day.
In the Chernihiv region in the north, a 72-year-old man was killed and four people injured by three Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Two houses were destroyed and 10 damaged.
In the Zaporizhzhia region in the south, a man was killed and his wife hospitalized in an attack by Grad multiple rocket launchers.
In the Kherson region in the south, eight civilians were injured in attacks on 40 settlements, including Kherson city.
UPDATE 1210 GMT:
Slovakia’s State-controlled SEPS will continue providing electricity to Ukraine as part of an emergency assistance contract, despite threats from Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to cut the supply.
Fico said on December 27 that his government would consider the cutoff because of the impending halt to transit of Russian gas across Ukraine on January 1.
But SEPS assured that it would cooperate with Ukraine’s State-owned energy company Ukrenergo under a contract extended last spring for another 12 months. The Slovak company can supply Ukraine with up to 150 megawatts of electricity on an emergency basis.
On Friday, Fico threatened to reduce aid to Ukrainian refugees.
European and Ukrainian officials have noted that the Fico Government, unlike countries such as Hungary and the Czech Republic, failed to arrange alternative supplies to the Russian gas sent via Ukraine.
UPDATE 0940 GMT:
A woman injured by falling drone debris during a Russian attack on the Kyiv region on Friday has died in hospital.
One civilian was slain and four others, including a 16-year-old, were injured by the initial assault on the region.
UPDATE 0738 GMT:
Air defenses downed 34 of 81 drones launched by Russia overnight. The other 47, all decoys, were lost to electronic counter-measures.
Debris from falling drones damaged private houses in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions in northern Ukraine.
UPDATE 0714 GMT:
Russia’s Ambassador to the UN has rejected the offer of the incoming Trump Administration to broker an end to Moscow’s 34-month invasion of Ukraine.
The Trump team is reportedly considering a plan to delay Ukraine’s NATO membership by at least 20 years. In return, Kyiv would be assured of Western arms supplies and European troops would be deployed to monitor a ceasefire.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has already pushed aside the proposal.
Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya followed up on Friday by denouncing the “unformed, vague signals”: “President Putin last outlined our conditions for ending the conflict on December 19. So far, nothing from the incoming U.S. administration suggests anything of interest to us.”
ORIGINAL ENTRY: Moldova’s Prime Minister Dorin Recean has warned of a “security crisis” after a cutoff of Russian gas supplies.
Russia’s State energy company Gazprom terminated deliveries to Moldova on January 1, at the same time that transit of Russian gas across neighboring Ukraine was halted.
Kyiv decided not to renew a decades-long arrangement with Gazprom because of Moscow’s 34-month invasion of Ukraine.
Russia then stopped supply to Moldova, using the pretext of large debts. Moldovan officials say the claim is false.
Ironically, the area most affected is Trasnistria, occupied by Russian forces since 1992. Sergei Obolonik, First Deputy Prime Minister of the region, spoke of a “grave” crisis:
All industrial enterprises are idle, with the exception of those engaged in food production – that is, directly ensuring food security for Transnistria.
The problem is so extensive that if it is not resolved for a long time, we will already have irreversible changes – that is, enterprises will lose their ability to start up.
Shortages immmediately cut supply to nearly 75,000 households and leaving another 116,000 with reduced volumes. Later, authorities imposed rolling blackouts.
Moldova’s Prime Minister Recean said in a statement:
By jeopardizing the future of the protectorate it has backed for three decades in an effort to destabilize Moldova, Russia is revealing the inevitable outcome for all its allies — betrayal and isolation.
We treat this as a security crisis aimed at enabling the return of pro-Russian forces to power in Moldova and weaponizing our territory against Ukraine, with whom we share a 1,200-km border.
Transnistria rejected the Moldovan Government’s offer of gas via European platforms, said Vadim Cheban, head of the state energy company Moldovagaz.
Instead, the Transnistrian authorities expected a resumption of Gazprom’s deliveries.
The Russian proxy leader of the region, Vadim Krasnoselsky, proclaimed, “Fortunately, our region is rich in timber, and supplies are still available, with solid fuel distribution points open in every district.”
Think back to 1999, when NATO attacked Yugoslavia without UNSC authorization, bringing itself and Russia to the brink of war (Pristina Airport incident). Do you remember the fights in the Duma? And, like Maidan, the Rose Revolution was used as a battering ram against Russia, resulting a 3-day war and Georgia’s defeat. All of that was discussed. And, if true, that NATO wanted Georgia to open a second front in the Ukraine-Russia war, using that now ousted president/French agent, we’re seeing continued use of that playbook.
This Ukraine-Russia war — said to be the biggest war in Europe since WWII — is the result of decades of misguided and ill-advised policies, not to mention extreme arrogance. Furthermore, it should be noted that NATO’s attack on Yugoslavia was the final nail in the political coffin of Boris Yeltsin. The rise of Vladimir Putin was no accident. The flouting of Russia’s security concerns with NATO expansion, the colour revolutions, destruction of decades of nuclear arms control, has resulted in a Europe/West that is less secure, less politically and economically stable than it was in 1992. Former US ambassador to the USSR John Matlock, George Kennan (and others) voiced their concerns about this trajectory for years, but they were ignored.
You may remember the song ‘Wind of Change’ by The Scorpions (1990-1991). It was a hit song in the US when I was in junior high — and for good reason: people believed it. The song is still played on US radio stations today. All that “future’s in the air” hope and optimism gone.
[Editor’s Note: I can’t think of an academic at the University of Birmingham who would have said that — particularly in line of Russia’s actions in Ukraine and beyond since 2014, let alone February 2022.
Commenter might want to rethink that quote.]
Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya followed up on Friday by denouncing the “unformed, vague signals”: “President Putin last outlined our conditions for ending the conflict on December 19. So far, nothing from the incoming U.S. administration suggests anything of interest to us.”
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Russia wants US recognition of its legitimate security interests and mutual respect — the two things that Russia never got after the Cold War ended. Will the Trump team be another US administration that just doesn’t get it?
As the fine academics at the University of Birmingham used to say, “When it comes to peace in Europe, all roads lead to Moscow.”