Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev (L) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (File)
In the chessboard of Middle Eastern geopolitics, Azerbaijan occupies a special square.
With its oil pipelines flowing westward, this secular Muslim-majority country has built a relationship with Israel that
is both pragmatic and deeply strategic. Around 40% of Israel’s crude oil imports are sourced from Baku, and in the first half of 2024, those imports rose 28%.
Meanwhile, Israel has equipped Azerbaijan with advanced weapons systems, crucial in the Azerbaijanis’ 2020 victory in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and the purchases are steadily climbing. International relations scholar John Mearsheimer claims, “Azerbaijan won the war because of Israeli arms and Türkiye’s Bayraktar TB2
drones gaining air superiority.”
For Azerbaijan, the relationship provides more than material benefits. It offers a geopolitical counterweight to neighboring Iran, with whom relations have been fraught due to historical and cultural tensions.
Azerbaijan’s relationship with Israel is also shaped by enduring cultural bonds. The thriving Jewish community in Azerbaijan, particularly in Krasnaya Sloboda, is testament to a history of co-existence rarely seen in the region. This shared heritage reinforces the strategic partnership, providing a cultural foundation that complements mutual economic and security interests.
As for Israel, it finds in Azerbaijan a rare ally in the Muslim world – one willing to engage in quiet cooperation that serves those interests.
Navigating The Relationship Amid Israel-Gaza
The October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas on Israel and the subsequent Israeli military campaign in Gaza placed Azerbaijan in a delicate position. While Baku condemned civilian casualties in Gaza, it stopped short of outright criticism of Israel’s actions.
This measured response was Azerbaijan’s balancing act: attempting to placate domestic and regional audiences while preserving its lucrative ties with Israel. Continuing cooperation with the Israelis over surveillance and counter-terrorism cooperation, Azerbaijani officials sought to maintain credibility within the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and to avoid alienation of its majority-Muslim population.
However, the conflict intensified scrutiny of Azerbaijan’s alignment with Israel, and Turkey’s response put additional pressure on Baku. Protests in Istanbul targeted Azerbaijani institutions with Turkish conservatives and Islamists, seeing Baku’s ties with Israel as betraying Islamic solidarity. Meanwhile Iran, already wary of Azerbaijani-Israeli cooperation, ramped up its rhetoric and accused Azerbaijan of enabling Israeli operations near its border.
Azerbaijan deftly navigated these tensions by emphasizing shared regional security goals with Turkey, particularly concerning Tehran. The Aliyev Government repeatedly affirmed support for a two-state solution and an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, while continuing to supply Israel with oil.
Now the overthrow of Syria’s Assad regime presents both challenges and opportunities for Azerbaijan. With the regime’s collapse, Iran’s influence in Syria has diminished. However, a power vacuum in Syria would to instability with various factions vying for control. Azerbaijan may find it advantageous to collaborate with Israel in monitoring these developments, using intelligence-sharing arrangements to assess emerging threats and to create opportunities.
Baku’s Tightrope
The durability of Azerbaijan’s dual-track diplomacy will depend on its ability to reconcile competing pressures. Will it continue to prioritise strategic gains over ideological alignment? Will mounting regional opposition force a recalibration of its foreign policy?
Azerbaijan’s quiet partnership with Israel raises broader questions about the future of Middle Eastern alliances. Can pragmatism prevail over ideology in a region where loyalties are often tested by conflict?
For now, Azerbaijan remains committed to its balancing act, walking a tightrope between solidarity with the Muslim world and an unshakable bond with Israel. Whether this strategy holds or falters will be determined not just by geopolitics but by the very human cost of the conflicts it seeks to navigate.
