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Ukraine War, Day 1,014: NATO Unlikely to Issue Invitation to Kyiv
Rebels Consolidate Liberation of Syria’s Aleppo and Advance in Hama
I joined Dublin NewsTalk’s Pat Kenny Show on Tuesday for an 16-minute analysis of the latest developments in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the rebel advance in Syria.
I also chat at the end about US President Joe Biden’s pardon of his son Hunter.
We discuss Ukraine’s appeal for an invitation to join NATO, and how it is linked to possible talks to end Russia’s 33-month invasion.
EA-Times Radio Special: Ukraine, NATO, and A “German Parallel” to End Russia’s Invasion?
I review Putin’s failed gamble with his invasion, bringing countries like Sweden and Finland into NATO, and whether the mass protests of Georgia 2024 might replicate Ukraine 2014.
I consider why the rebel takeover of Syria’s largest city Aleppo and other areas is far more than a “setback” for Vladimir Putin: “Because Russia, Irna, and Hezbollah each have their problems elsewhere, the Assad regime might not fall but it has no assured control of much of the country.”
I discuss the nature of a diverse anti-Assad movement, from the Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham to Turkish-backed factions to secular units.
And I explain why as an analyst, I disagree for legal and political reasons with Biden’s pardon — but why as a father, I sympathize with why he did it.
[Editor’s Note: The Pentagon has said the Congressman’s claim is ludicrous.]
Iranian UFO “mothership” off coast of New Jersey, US congressman says: https://www.intellinews.com/iranian-ufo-mothership-off-coast-of-new-jersey-us-congressman-says-358106/
“Iran has positioned a “mothership” off the East Coast of America to launch drones over New Jersey, a US congressman claims, as reports of “car-sized” flying objects over the Garden State have poured into local TV stations and flooded social media since November.”
It comes as Iran claims it has produced drones that will amaze the world: https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/12/11/738935/Iran-new-drone-surprise-world-IRGC-Navy-Defense-Ministry
They are hardly going to say, “Yes, the Iranians and Chinese are flying drones which we cannot down over U.S territory”, now are they?
Might be extraterrestrials. Trump has promised to declassify files on UFOs and aliens.
The West fought the Cold War from a position of economic strength, with massive rebuilding investment. Prosperous and thriving Western European economies resulted from it. West Germany’s economy averaged 8% growth in the 1950s. Western Europe’s success relative to the East was fostered by the help of the US which emerged from WW2 largely unscathed and comprising about 46% of the world’s GDP. Today’s US economy is about 22% of the world’s GDP, and the EU economies are weak and no longer have the heavy industries and the low-cost Russian oil and gas to run what they still have. Volkswagen is closing factories in Germany, which it never did during the Cold War. If conditions in Germany continue to deteriorate, a rapprochement with Russia would not surprise me.
Professor Lucas assumes that Russia won’t succeed in rebuilding Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine. He may be right. But I think the prospects of successfully rebuilding these territories are largely predicated on the future of the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The future of the European Union appears bleak – at the moment. Will the EU have to abandon the post 1992 political apparatus and go back to the early EC/EEC models to placate Hungary, Slovakia, Georgia, and Serbia (if Serbia and Georgia join the EU)? Washington and Brussels may not get the kind of cohesion they want to fight the new cold war, against a strong and cohesive Eurasian block flush with important natural resources and heavy industries. And that leads to my next point:
Geopolitical power appears to be moving eastward. If the US political system continues to deteriorate, and the US economy continues to deindustrialize and weaken , a new generation of Willy Brandts may appear on the scene in Europe, looking eastward.