Vladimir Putin in a televised address from the Kremlin, November 22, 2024
Ukraine War, Day 1,003: Putin Fires “Experimental” Ballistic Missile on Dnipro
Map: Institute for the Study of War
UPDATE 1744 GMT:
Ukraine can use French long-range SCALP missiles inside Russia “in the logic of self-defense”, says France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot.
Barrot told the BBC, in an interview broadcast on Sunday, “The principle is established. Our messages to [Ukraine] President Zelensky were well-received.”
The Minister did not specify whether French missiles had already been used by Ukraine for strikes.
Earlier this week, both the US and UK lifted months-long bans on the use of their missiles inside Russia. A US-made ATACMS struck a munitions depot in the Bryansk region, and a UK-made Storm Shadow reportedly hit a command headquarters in the Kursk region, injuring Russian and North Korean personnel.
EA on RTE and BBC: US Finally Allows Ukraine’s Strikes Inside Russia
Barrot said to the BBC, “We will support Ukraine as intensely and as long as necessary. Why? Because our security is at stake. Every time the Russian army advances one square kilometer, the threat is one square kilometer closer to Europe.”
UPDATE 1733 GMT:
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has posted on Holomodor Day, which marks the killing of millions of Ukrainians in 1932-1933 by a famine imposed by Soviet leader Joseph Stalin:
How can anyone seek to erase an entire nation? How can anyone take away the very last from people—their last crumbs of food, their last means of survival, their last hope for life? It is beyond comprehension.
Yet there is something we know for certain. They wanted to destroy us. To kill us. To subjugate us. They failed.
They wanted to hide the truth and silence the terrible crimes forever. They failed.
They wanted to confuse us, mislead us, make us doubt—to forget, and in forgetting, to forgive. They failed.
There are pages in our history that are too painful to remember; but cannot be forgotten. The crimes that prove: the cruelty and cynicism of tyrants know no bounds. No words have yet been invented to fully describe the pain that Ukrainians have endured. In 1921, 1922, 1923. In… pic.twitter.com/ovztDcYSX0
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 23, 2024
UPDATE 1347 GMT:
Lithuania will fund production of Ukraine’s long-range drones.
Ukraine Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced the long-term agreement between Ukraine and Lithuania with an initial tranche of €10 million.
“I expressed gratitude to the Republic of Lithuania for its steadfast support during these challenging times and personally thanked [Defense Minister Laurynas] Kasciunas for his leadership,” Umerov wrote.
Umerov and Kasciunas also reportedly discussed plans to equip Ukrainian brigades, provide ammunition, strengthen air defense, and expand defense industry cooperation as “key priorities”.
Sweden also agreed to provide, during Umerov’s visit and talks with Swedish counterpart Pal Jonson.
“For us, this is not just about partnership but also about shared security,” Umerov said.
UPDATE 1338 GMT:
Russia has regained more than 40% of the territory taken by Ukraine in the Kursk region in the west of the country, says a “senior” member of the Ukrainian General Staff.
The source said Russia has deployed around 59,000 troops since Ukraine’s cross-border incursion on August 6.
At most, we controlled about 1,376 square km [531 square miles[, now of course this territory is smaller. The enemy is increasing its counterattacks.
Now we control approximately 800 square km [309 square miles]. We will hold this territory for as long as is militarily appropriate.
UPDATE 1019 GMT:
The UK’s largest bank, HSBC, has stopped processing payments from retail clients in Russia and Belarus.
The bank advised customers to seek alternative options for conducting transactions.
HSBC may be particularly sensitive to US sanctions, as it was fined almost $2 billion by American authorities in 2012 over violations in money laundering controls at its division in Mexico.
After Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the bank began to scale back its presence in Russia. In February 2024, its sagreement to sell the business to Expobank was approved by Vladimir Putin.
ORIGINAL ENTRY: Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called on the international community to “react firmly and decisively” to Russia’s strikes, after Vladimir Putin used an experimental intermediate range ballistic missile for the first time in his 33-month invasion.
In his nightly address to the nation, Zelenskiy said “more details” had been revealed about the Oreshnik IRBM fired on Dnipro in south-central Ukraine on Thursday. He said these would be shared with international media, the world “must understand that the only party that does not want peace is Russia”.
As Ukraine Defense Minister Rustem Umerov meets with partners about advanced air defense, Zelensky summarized:
When a country starts using other nations not only as targets for terror but also as testing grounds for its new missiles through acts of terror, it is undoubtedly an international crime. Russia’s actions mock the calls for restraint by states like China, leaders of the Global South, and others. Each time these voices call for peace, Moscow responds with yet another escalation.
The world must respond firmly and decisively so that Putin fears expanding this war and faces real consequences for his actions. True peace can only be achieved through strength — there is no other way.
Today, more details have been revealed about the new missile that Russia used to strike Dnipro. These details will be shared with international journalists and media because the world must know the truth. It must understand that the only party that does not want peace is Russia.… pic.twitter.com/dmuYRF6G2F
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 22, 2024
Trying to deter international support for Ukraine, Putin declared on Friday that Russia would carry out more tests of the Oreshnik in combat. He proclaimed, “We have enough of such items, such systems ready for use in stock,” but called for “serial production” by Russia’s military industry of the missile.
The commander of Russia’s strategic missile forces commander threatened countries beyond Ukraine.
“Depending on the objectives and the range of this weapon, it can strike targets on the entire territory of Europe, which sets it apart from other types of long-range precision-guided weapons,” Sergey Karakayev said.
Escalation dominance — Russia has control of the escalation ladder in the Ukraine conflict. President Obama talked about it a decade ago; it’s why he refused to send to Ukraine the type of weaponry some officials in the US gov’t wanted.
“Obama has resisted arming Ukraine to date, recognizing that Russia enjoys escalation dominance in the region. Thus, any American move could simply elicit a greater and stronger Russian counterplay.” (Brookings, 2015)
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/obama-the-carpenter-the-presidents-national-security-legacy/
[Editor’s Note: No clue what commenter means through “escalation dominance” but it appears to summarize Putin’s bluster in recent days.]
“The world must respond firmly and decisively so that Putin fears expanding this war and faces real consequences for his actions. True peace can only be achieved through strength — there is no other way.”
********
How can Ukraine and NATO pursue peace through strength when Russia has escalation dominance?