Ukraine Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Brussels, Belgium, November 13, 2024

Wednesday’s Coverage: Russia Kills Mother and Her 3 Children in Kryvyi Rih

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1515 GMT:

At least two civilians have been killed and at least 28 injured by Russian attacks across Ukraine in the past 24 hours.

The fatalities were in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, where eight people were wounded.

Air defenses downed 21 of 59 drones launched by Russia overnight. The other 38 drones were lost to electronic counter-measures.

UPDATE 0724 GMT:

Ukraine’s European allies have begun discussions of an end to Russia’s invasion through “land for security”, in which Kyiv would give up some territory in return for firm security guarantees.

The discussions are summarized by the Washington Post, citing “10 current and former diplomats from European and NATO countries”. One Western official says the deal is “certainly not fringe anymore”.

The sources reinforce reports of a settlement with Russia occupying around 27% of Ukraine, and the rest of the country on a path to join NATO and the European Union.

EA-Times Radio Special: Ukraine, NATO, and A “German Parallel” to End Russia’s Invasion?

The discussions have accelerated with the imminent return to the White House of Donald Trump, who is threatening to end US aid to Ukraine.

Publicly, European leaders are making no reference to a settlement accepting Russian occupation of Crimea and part of four Ukrainian regions in the east and south of the country.

French President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday, alongside NATO head Mark Rutte, “Let me be clear. When the moment comes, nothing must be decided on Ukraine without the Ukrainians, nor on Europe without the Europeans.”

In a 25-minute phone call with Trump last week, Macron made clear
that any negotiations must involve meaningful concessions from Moscow, according to “people familiar with the call”.

But a “European Union diplomat” said the prospect of a negotiated settlement was slowly gaining traction.

Ukrainian Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said Wednesday that pushing Kyiv to negotiate on unfavorable terms was forcing “Ukraine to give up its resistance”.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Facing the threat of Donald Trump in the White House from January, Ukraine Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken have conferred in Brussels, Belgium.

Sybiha said on Wednesday of forthcoming military aid, “We have a clear picture – a clear timeframe, clear volumes – of what will be delivered to Ukraine by the end of the year. This helps us strategically to plan our actions on the battlefield.” The support will include weapons and funds for arms production deals.

The Biden Administration has said it will disburse around $9 billion in authorized aid before the inauguration of Trump, who has threatened to cut off assistance against Russia’s 32 1/2-month invasion.

Blinken said, “President Biden has committed to making sure that every dollar we have at our disposal will be pushed out the door between now and January 20.”

Sybiha also said he was “cautiously optimistic” after discussing with Blinken the possibility of conducting strikes with long-range missiles inside Russia, and Ukraine’s integration into organizations such as NATO and the European Union.

The US has blocked the long-range strikes for months, even with British and French missiles, and stood against an invitation to Ukraine in the near term to join NATO.

Blinken said that NATO’s 32 members must focus efforts on “ensuring that Ukraine has the money, munitions, and mobilized forces to fight effectively in 2025 or to be able to negotiate a peace from a position of strength”.

Without giving details, Blinken said the US will “adapt and adjust” with its dispatch of military aid: “We’re counting on European partners and others to strongly support Ukraine’s mobilization.

Sybiga emphasized the need for more air defense systems: “Russia is using Iranian drones, North Korean ballistic missiles and troops to attack Ukraine. Ukraine’s defense cannot be put on hold.”

He also referred to around 11,000 North Korean troops deployed to prop up the Russian invasion:

Blinken said he had discussed with NATO head Mark Rutte how Pyongyang’s troops had been “injected into the battle, and now, quite literally, in combat”. The Secretary of State said it was “a profound and incredibly dangerous development” that “demands, and will Tooltip Textget, a firm response”.