Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament, Jerusalem, September 30, 2024
(Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
EA on Chasing Shadows Podcast: Netanyahu’s “Forever Wars” From Gaza to Lebanon
Are Iran’s Missiles on Israel Just Another “Demonstration” Attack?
UPDATE, OCT 3:
I spoke with Thomas Oriti on Australia’s ABC Radio early Wednesday about the latest developments, including fighting in southern Lebanon after the start of Israel’s ground invasion.
This will be a reminder, at least to the Israeli public, that this supposedly “limited” operation will not be cost-free even if Hezbollah has been weakened as an organization.
I analyze the capacities of a “crippled” Hezbollah and the warnings to Israel of its history of invasions of Lebanon. And I continue to put the context of Iran’s “demonstration” missile strikes on Israel in the context of Benjamin Netanyahu’s “forever wars” in Lebanon and Gaza.
Listen to Discussion
ORIGINAL ENTRY, OCT 2: I joined international outlets on Wednesday to analyze Iran’s “demonstration” missile strikes — their second set in six months — on Israel
The takeaway? It’s not that a direct Israel-Iran confrontation is imminent. Instead, it is that the big winner from Tehran’s need to display “strength” — in the wake of Israeli assassinations of senior Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian officials and commanders — is Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Under domestic pressure only weeks ago over his “open-ended” war without a resolution in Gaza, Netanyahu now has space not only to avoid a ceasefire but to expand military operations in both Gaza and Lebanon.
Listen to RTE Radio 1 from 4:46
I explain to Claire Byrne the dynamics of Iran’s demonstration and Netanyahu’s response.
I agree this puts everyone in a challenging position but that position hasn’t changed very much.
In a strange way, what we saw last night was that Iran was still observing the lines set by the international community, signalling the attacks in advance.
The problem is that, while the international community will tell Israel and Iran to avoid confrontation, the US in particular has tied its hands behind its back over Lebanon and Gaza.
I explain how — “not being pro-Israel or anti-Israel but pro-human” — Netanyahu and his inner circles “continue to put two fingers up to the international community”.
Watch Times Now from 2:40
Alongside retired Israeli Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser, I explain why Iran notified Arab countries in advance that the attack on Israel was coming the following night.
U.S sends THAAD missile system to Israel: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/10/13/biden-thaad-missile-defense-israel/
The depolyment of the system undermines claims that Israel was successful in intercepting Iranian missiles and needs additional help. The Israelis may also have few stocks of Arrow interceptor missiles remaining and that Iran succeeded in saturating their arsenal over the course of two waves of attacks this year.
Israeli official: No decision on Iran attack; Israel, US in tune on strategic challenges: https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-official-no-decision-on-iran-attack-israel-us-in-tune-on-strategic-challenges/
“The security cabinet met Thursday night to discuss a potential Israeli response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack on the country last week. Still, no major decision was made, as coordination on the matter continues between Jerusalem and Washington, an Israeli official said…… US defense officialsl confirmed that some Gulfstates have informally requested that Israel not use their airspace for an attack and that the US bases they host not be used for such action. They are also lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran’s oil sites because they are concerned their own oil facilities could come under fire from Tehran’s proxies if the conflict escalates, the report said.”
U.S offers to join Israeli in counterstrikes against Iran: https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/israel-not-briefed-us-military-officials-plans-retaliation-iran-rcna174443
“Senior U.S. military officials have discussed conducting very limited strikes against Iranian targets, the two officials said. Strikes inside Iran have been discussed, as have strikes on targets outside Iran, though strikes of any kind are less likely than intelligence sharing, the officials said…….The U.S. could target Iranian assets at sea, the officials said, or try to disrupt Iran’s military assistance to proxies in the region by hitting Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps sites that support militia groups in Yemen or Syria. A U.S. strike on an Iranian target could be considered defensive if it eliminates a possible threat to the U.S. or allies, like previous American strikes on Iran-linked targets inside Yemen, Iraq, and Syria.”
Iran exports over $23 billion crude oil in H1: https://en.mehrnews.com/news/222496/Iran-exports-over-23-billion-crude-oil-in-H1-IRICA
If Israel attack refineries and loading platforms, it may cause damage, and disrupt exports, but the price of oil will spike and offset any losses.
Iranian Missiles Overwhelmed Israeli Defenses at Some Sites, Analysts Say: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-missiles-israel-overwhelm-defence-a7cbd9af
“While damage was limited, Tuesday’s strike suggests Iran could cause serious pain if it hits Israel’s civilian infrastructure”
Full satellite imagery shows that 32 Iranian missiles hit Nevatim according to arms control expert, Jeffrey Lewis: https://x.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1841985294368964944
Most of the impacts, however, did not hit aircraft hangers although at least 2 did. Runways and taxiways were also damaged.
Thus, the attack was indeed a demonstration for political effect – the editor is right in that respect – but the Iranians appear to have been trying to cause real destruction. The relative imprecision of the missiles used and the lack of potency (only 500 kg warheads) may jave spared the Israelis this time around.
[Editor’s Note: A low-information article, with few facts on Israel’s system of interceptors….]
How Iran may have breached the world’s best air defences: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/02/how-iran-could-breach-israel-air-defences-missiles
Seems like Israel is low on interceptors
Israeli air base hangar hit in Iranian missile strike : https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/03/pictured-israel-nevatim-air-base-damage-iranian-missiles/
“”Iranian missiles hit a hangar and caused craters at Israel’s Nevatim air base, according to satellite imagery. The image, published by Planet Labs, suggests Israel remains vulnerable to aerial attack from Iran, despite its state-of-the-art air defence systems and protection from the US military. The satellite image shows four potential impacts at the base in southern Israel, one of four military facilities the Iranians claimed to have targeted.”
Note: The image shows just a corner of the base rather than its entirety.
thanks for info.
Satellite images appear to show damage to Israeli air base after Iranian attack : https://apnews.com/live/israel-lebanon-ground-operation-updates#00000192-4edb-d827-a9bb-cfdb08220000
“Satellite images of an aircraft hangar at a key Israeli military air base taken after a massive barrage of Iranian missiles appear to show a large hole in the roof. Images of the Nevatim air base in southern Israel on Wednesday show the damage to the roof in a row of buildings near the main runway. Large pieces of debris can be seen spread around the building.”
Flare-Up in Israel-Iran Conflict Leaves Harris Unable to Avoid the Subject: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/02/us/politics/israel-iran-war-harris-policy.html
“Missiles over Tel Aviv fed Donald Trump’s narrative of a world in chaos and vaporized any hopes of an end to the war. In the near term, that poses political problems for Democrats………..Now, all Ms. Harris can do is pray that the widening war in the Middle East does not overwhelm her candidacy and confirm in the minds of the last few undecided voters the idea that her opponent Donald Trump is promoting: that the world is out of control thanks to the weak leadership of the Biden-Harris administration.”
“The problem is that, while the international community will tell Israel and Iran to avoid confrontation, the US in particular has tied its hands behind its back over Lebanon and Gaza.”
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This is what Secretary Austin was afraid of. Word has it that he is very angry at Netanyahu. Austin seems to be receptive to Pezeshkian’s rapprochement. If the Ayatollah overruled Pezeshkian and ordered the missile strikes on Israel, how long will he last as Iran’s president? If Washington doesn’t want war, what is its strategy? It seems Biden is making the case for the hardliners in Tehran and, deliberately or not deliberately, marginalizing the moderates.
The video is not accessible in the US. Not sure why.
You are great Scott and you have my very highest respect! One question I have is can a “Lame Duck” President Joe Biden try to stop PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s “Mission Creep” to a very possible Regional war (I personally think he is doing it to delay his own criminal prosecution and delay investigations into how his irresponsibility helped lead to October 7, 2023, but please correct me if you think I am wrong) by threatening Netanyahu to cut off All funding for Israel’s military offense (but still provide for Israel’s defense, the Iron Dome) until Netanyahu agrees to a reasonable cease fire, is open to serious diplomacy, and puts the return of the Hamas hostages first? Biden does not have to answer to the US voters while VP Kamala Harris can take whatever position that is best for her to have the best possible chance of winning, even if she has to openly disagree with Biden (saying something like “we have only one President at a time, it is the President who makes the final decisions, not the VP”). I am not a foreign affairs expert, you are, so I was wondering what you think about my possible solution to stop a possible Middle East Regional War and to hopefully free the hostages. Thank you! Mitch Dworkin