Israeli air defenses intercepting Iranian missiles, October 1, 2024 (AP)

EA on Australia’s ABC: Israel’s Invasion of Lebanon

Iran’s Supreme Leader: We Will Deliver “Crushing Blows” After Israel Assassinates Hezbollah’s Nasrallah and Iranian General

EA on WION: What Now For Hezbollah After Israel’s Killing of Hassan Nasrallah?

UPDATE, OCT 4:

In a Friday Prayers sermon at Tehran University, Iran’s Supreme Leader has hailed Tuesday’s missile attacks on Israel and asserted that Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Gaza’s Hamas will not back down despite Israeli assassinations of their leaders.

“The brilliant action of our armed forces a couple of nights ago was completely legal and legitimate,” Ayatollah Khamenei maintained, saying the missile launches were in line with the Qur’an, Iran’s Constitution, and international law.

Speaking predominantly in Arabic, Khamenei called on Muslims from “Afghanistan to Yemen and from Iran to Gaza and Yemen” to be ready to take action. He praised those who had perished: “The resistance in the region will not back down with these martyrdoms, and will win.”

Khamenei last led Friday Prayers in January 2020 after the US assassination of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the leader of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Forces, outside Baghdad International Airport in January 2020.

President Masoud Pezeshkian said the attendance of tens of thousands and the collective presence of senior clerics, politicians, and military officers and politicians was a display of unity and power.

Listing the leaders who had been assassinated by Israel, Khamenei said, “Each of these were considered pillars of the revolution at the national or local level, and their loss was not an easy thing. But the revolution didn’t stop, didn’t retreat, but accelerated.”

He said Israel’s only achievement after spending billions of dollars attacking Gaza and Lebanon was the destruction of schools, while the Israeli ability to exist was now in question.

“Today, even the Zionist criminal gang has gradually come to the conclusion that they will never triumph over Hamas and Hezbollah,” he declared.

ORIGINAL ENTRY, OCT 2: Responding to Israel’s assassinations of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian leaders and commanders, Iran’s regime fired 181 missiles at Israeli territory on Tuesday.

But as with Iran’s other missile and drone assault in April, the barrage had little effect. No Israelis were killed, and there were only two minor injuries — the only fatality was a Palestinian in the West Bank hit by falling debris.

Those missiles that landed were mainly on open ground, causing little significant damage. One rocket struck a school in Gadera in central Israel, severely damaging the building.

Iran State media proclaimed, without any evidence, that 90% of the missiles hit their targets. The Revolutionary Guards insisted that three Israeli military bases in Tel Aviv were hit.

The Israel Defense Forces said it and its allies intercepted “a large number” of missiles, with “isolated impacts” in the center and south of the country. Analysts noted that air defenses were designed to take down missiles threatening populated areas, while allowing those posing little or no threat to land.

“Several people familiar with the matter” said Iran told Arab officials on Monday that it was planning a major attack against Israel. The Israelis immediately warned Tehran that they would respond — including the possibility of attacks on nuclear and oil facilities — regardless of the size of the Iranian assault or whether it caused casualties.

Despite the lack of damage, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — who has arguably rescued his domestic position, amid his “forever war” in Gaza, with a second-front assault on Hezbollah and Lebanon — warned Iran that it had made “a big mistake” and “will pay for it”.

The Revolutionary Guards declared that Israel would face “more crushing attacks” if it responded. The Supreme Leader tweeted in Hebrew, “With God’s help, the blows of the uprising front will become stronger and more painful on the worn and rotting body of the Zionist regime.”

A Replay of April?

In mid-April, following months of Israel’s targeted assassination of Iranian commanders and officials, Tehran fired 146 missiles and 185 drones at the Israelis.

However, Iranian officials gave advance warning through other countries such as Turkey and Switzerland, ensuring that Israel, the US, UK, France, and Jordan could intercept the incoming munitions. Only nine missiles landed, all of them on or near an Israeli base in the sparsely-populated Negev desert. The only casualty was a seriously-injured 9-year-old Bedouin girl.

Israel has not assassinated an Iranian commander in Syria since then. However, it has killed Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, including Hezbollah’s military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut on July 30 and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran the next day.

After deadly pager and walkie-talkie explosions in Lebanon last month, Israel struck a meeting of Hezbollah’s top command in Beirut last Friday. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Abbas Nilforoushan, the Iranian commander overseeing operations in Lebanon, were among the dead.

Hours before Iran’s missile launch, the Israel Defense Forces announced they were carried out “limited” ground operations in southern Lebanon.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu referred to the targeted assassinations as he warned, “The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies….They will understand….Whoever attacks us — we will attack him.”

President Masoud Pezeshkian, who took office in August, followed Ayatollah Khamenei’s lead of “a decisive response to the aggression of the Zionist regime”: “Let Netanyahu know that Iran is not a belligerent, but it stands firmly against any threat … Do not enter into a conflict with Iran.”