Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy with US Vice President Kamala Harris at the Munich Securty Conference, February 17, 2024

Wednesday’s Coverage: Zelenskiy Sets Out His “Victory Plan”

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1123 GMT:

A UN agency says Russia’s airstrikes on Ukraine’s energy grid probably violate international humanitarian law.

The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission assessed nine waves of strikes between March and August 2024. It concluded:

There are reasonable grounds to believe that multiple aspects of the military campaign to damage or destroy Ukraine’s civilian electricity and heat-producing and transmission infrastructure have violated foundational principles of international humanitarian law.

HRMMU visited seven power plants damaged or destroyed by Russia’s attacks and 28 communities affected by the strikes. It cited risks to Ukraine’s water supply, sewage and sanitation, provision of heating and hot water, public health, education, and the wider economy.

The report noted that almost 95% of Kyiv’s residents rely on centralised basement heating systems whose output requires electric pumps to reach the upper floors of the building: “Without emergency electricity supply, millions of urban residents could be left without heat.”

Ukrainians should expect power outages of between four and 18 hours a day this winter, experts assess.

The International Energy Agency said the winter will be the “sternest test yet” of the grid as it laid out a 10-point plan to safeguard energy security.

The IEA warned of problems for neighboring Moldova’s electricity supply after Ukraine stops allowing the transit of Russian gas at the end of 2024.

The agency’s report noted that in 2022 and 2023 “about half of Ukraine’s power generation capacity was either occupied by Russian forces, destroyed or damaged, and approximately half of the large network substations were damaged by missiles and drones”.

Having lost more than two-thirds of its electricity production capacity during Vladimir Putin’s invasion, Ukraine faced a “yawning gap between available electricity supply and peak demand”. The IEA urged European countries to expedite deliveries of equipment and parts to rebuild the damaged facilities, and to implement measures to protect them from drones.

This summer Ukraine’s capacity for power generation fell more than two gigawatts below the peak demand of 12 gigawatts. The IEA predicts that the country’s peak demand in winter could increase to nearly 19 gigawatts.

“Strains that are bearable in the summer months may become unbearable when temperatures start to fall and supplies of heat and water falter,” it explained.

The cost of necessary repairs and upgrades to the grid is estimated at $30 billion.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is visiting Kyiv on Friday, said a fuel power plant is being dismantled in Lithuania and will be rebuilt in Ukraine: “We aim to restore 2.5 gw of capacity, which is 15% of Ukraine’s needs.”

Von der Leyen added that €160 million from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets will be allocated to meet Ukraine’s urgent humanitarian needs for this winter.

UPDATE 0834 GMT:

A Russian man has been condemned to five years in prison because of a comment he made in an interview on the street.

Yuri Kokhovets, 38, told US Government-funded news outlet Radio Liberty in July 2022 that Russian soldiers had shot civilians in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha “for no reason at all” in March.

He was sentenced to five years of correctional labor in April 2024 for spreading “false information about the Russian army” but prosecutors appealed, asking for a tougher sentence.

UPDATE 0713 GMT:

Artillery shells sold by Indian arms makers have been diverted by European customers to Ukraine, and India’s Modi Government has not intervened to stop the trade despite Russian protests.

The transfer has occurred for more than a year. Eleven Indian and European government and defense industry officials spoke about the diversion, which was confirmed commercially-available customs data.

Among the European countries sending Indian munitions to Ukraine are Italy and the Czech Republic, which is leading the European Union initiative to supply Kyiv with artillery shells, said multiple sources.

The Kremlin has raised the issue on at least two occasions, including during a July meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, said three Indian officials.

Indian arms export regulations limit the use of weaponry to the declared purchaser, with the risk of future sales being terminated if unauthorised transfers occur. In January, Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal told a news conference that India had not sent or sold artillery shells to Ukraine.

Two Indian Government and two defence industry sources said Delhi produces a very small amount of the ammunition used by Ukraine. One official estimated that it was under 1% of the total arms imported by Kyiv during Vladimir Putin’s invasion.

UPDATE 0638 GMT:

Five civilians have been killed and at least 31 injured by Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day.

In the Kharkiv region in the northeast, a 55-year-old woman was killed and seven people injured.

In the Zaporizhzhia region in the south, a guided bomb attack killed a 74-year-old woman and injured two other women.

In the Dnipropetrovsk region in south-central Ukraine, drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol killed a 42-year-old man and injuring four people, including a 9-year-old boy.

The attacks damaged five high-rise buildings, two educational institutions two administrative buildings, a post office, and seven shops.

Air defenses downed all 42 Iran-type dronesand one of four missiles launched by Russia overnight.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says Ukraine’s “Victory Plan” is complete and ready for presentation, including at the UN General Assembly in New York next week.

Zelenskiy has given few details of the Plan, but has said it includes Ukraine’s 45-day incursion into Russia’s Kursk region; Ukraine’s participation in global security infrastructure; pressure on Russia to end the war through diplomatic means; and economic aspects.

US officials have encouraged the presentation of the approach. The US Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said, “We think it lays out a strategy and a plan that can work.”

In his nightly address to the nation, Zelenskiy said:

I can now say that our Victory Plan is fully prepared – all points, key focuses, and necessary detailed annexes have been clearly defined. Everything has been thoroughly worked through. The most important thing now is having the determination to implement it.

There is no alternative to peace — no freezing of the war, or any other manipulations that would simply shift Russian aggression to another stage. We need reliable and lasting security for Ukraine, and, by extension, for all of Europe. That’s what we’re working towards.

Referring to “a lot of work with our foreign affairs team” for meetings with partners and negotiations, Zelenskiy also spoke of the necessity of adequately equipping and training brigades and fulfilment of promises over air defense.

Zelenskiy to Meet Harris in New York, Possibly Trump

Zelenskiy will meet US Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for President, in Washington, say “three sources familiar with the arrangements”.

The Ukrainian President will also present the Victory Plan to US counterpart Joe Biden in New York.

Donald Trump, the Republican nominee for President, said he may meet Zelenskiy.

“Probably, yes,” Trump answered when asked by a reporter if he plans to see the Ukrainian President. He did not provide additional details.

Harris has pledged ongoing support for Ukraine against Russia’s 31-month invasion, warning of the threat of Vladimir Putin to Europe.

Trump blackmailed the Zelenskiy Government in 2019, freezing military aid until Kyiv spread disinformation about Biden, then campaigning for the Presidency.

In the current campaign, Trump — a long-time admirer of Putin — has echoed the Kremlin’s rhetoric of “peace talks” that will Russia’s annexation of more than 20% of Ukraine.