Iran’s Supreme Leader votes in managed elections, Tehran, March 1, 2024
Iran’s regime suffered a record low turnout in Friday’s managed elections for Parliament and the Assembly of Experts.
Unofficial reports in Iranian media put participation at around 40%, despite the Supreme Leader urging voters to show up as a message to “enemies”.
The turnout broke the mark of 42.5% set in the 2020 elections for the Majlis and the Assembly of Experts, which selects and nominally supervises the Supreme Leader. In 2016, participation was 62%.
Many Iranians have been disillusioned by the regime’s repression since 2009, when it cracked down on protests by millions of people over the disputed Presidential election. The leaders of the Green Movement opposition — Mir Hossein Mousavi, who may have gained the most votes in the election before it was manipulated; fellow candidate and former Speaker of Parliament Mehdi Karroubi; and Mousavi’s wife, academic and artist Zahra Rahnavard — have been under house arrest since February 2011.
The discontent has been compounded this year by mass disqualification of candidates by the Guardian Council, half of whose 12 members are appointed by the Supreme Leader. Among those banned was Hassan Rouhani, the centrist President from 2013 to 2021.
Mohammad Khatami, reformist President from 1997 to 2005, was among those who did not vote. Women’s rights activist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, a political prisoner, called the ballot a “sham”.
The Hamshahri newspaper tried to maintain the turnout was “a 25-million slap” to calls for a boycott, but the headline pro-reform Ham Mihan noted “The Silent Majority” who stayed away.
Amid the managed vote, President Ebrahim Raisi was re-elected to the Assembly of Experts with 82.5% of the vote in his constituency.
In Face Of Record-Low Election Turnout, Iranian Cleric Says Believers Matter, Not Majority
https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-election-turnout-cleric-alamolhoda-believers-majority/32870530.html
More information on reformist participation in the elections:https://www.sharghdaily.com/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA-6/921429-%DA%86%D9%86%D8%AF-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%85%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%87-%D8%B1%D9%88-%D8%B9%D9%84%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%B1%D9%88%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3-%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A2%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%86%D8%AF
“According to Shargh Network, out of 165 candidates who were nominated by some reformist and moderate parties in different parts of the country, 40 people entered the parliament in the first round and four candidates went to the second round of the election.”
[Editor’s Note: Not an “interesting admission” but a solid report from March 3 on the managed election….
“Turnout in Iran’s parliamentary election fell to historic lows, according to preliminary results from a race that underscored how hardliners have consolidated power in the Islamic republic.
Overall turnout in the election, which included Tehran and more than a dozen other constituencies, dropped to as low as 41 per cent, according to state news agency IRNA, continuing a trend of disengagement in elections….Local media reports put turnout in Tehran at about 24 per cent….
The rate of participation is a setback for Iranian authorities, who have traditionally pointed to high voter turnout as proof of the Islamic republic’s legitimacy.
Despite the regime appealing for people to go to the polls, many voters refused to cast their ballots after leading pro-reform and moderate figures were purged in a pre-election vetting process.
Disillusionment has also been fuelled by soaring costs of living, inflation above 40 per cent, and a steep depreciation of the national currency over the past two years.”]
Interesting admission by the FT: https://www.ft.com/content/c2e621aa-d5c3-498b-9e00-c114b2d31776
“Moderate candidates in Tehran were entirely beaten by their hardline rivals. Around 30 moderate figures, including a few prominent reformists such as Masoud Pezeshkian, managed to enter the 290-seat parliament nationally”
[Editor’s Note: A series of Iran regime lines trying to wish away the historic non-participation in its managed elections….]
“The rate of participation is a setback for Iranian authorities, who have traditionally pointed to high voter turnout as proof of the Islamic republic’s legitimacy.”
It would have been better had it been 50%. but at 41%, the “boycott” clearly failed.
“Despite the regime appealing for people to go to the polls, many voters refused to cast their ballots after leading pro-reform and moderate figures were purged in a pre-election vetting process.”
That is an assertion. Not showing up at the polls is not “refusal”. It most likely is a lack of interest/apathy…that is the general way low turnouts are interpreted elsewhere. There is also little evidence that the “purging” of moderate/reformist candidates (most of whom didn’t even register) led people not to show up.
“Disillusionment has also been fuelled by soaring costs of living, inflation above 40 per cent, and a steep depreciation of the national currency over the past two years.”
Both rising inflation and the steep depreciation of the currency happened during Rouhani’s second term. Inflation has recently begun to fall.
In 1990, turnout for the Assembly of Experts elections was just 37%: https://irandataportal.syr.edu/1990-assembly-of-experts-election
In local elections held in 2003, turnout was less than 30%: https://www.rferl.org/a/1342728.html
But in 1997and 2009, we saw turnouts of >80%.
Iranian MP Reveals Elections Fraud and Vote-Buying in Recent Polls
https://iranwire.com/en/news/126176-iranian-mp-reveals-elections-fraud-and-vote-buying-in-recent-polls/
IRGC Backs Iran Majles Speaker Against New Hardline Rivals
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202403072701
“Gholamreza Sadeghian in an article featured in the most prominent place on the daily’s Wednesday’s edition particularly addressed Hamid Rasaei, a firebrand headliner, and said he and his likeminded newly elected lawmakers are neither devoted Muslims, nor have any particular expertise that would make them fit for membership in the Majles (parliament.
That’s what happens when thieves, murderers, and rapists become the governing body. If they had any civility they wouldn’t be thieves, murderers and rapists.
Growing ‘Despondency’ And Hard-Liners’ Dominance: Key Takeaways From Iran’s Elections
https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-elections-key-takeaways-khamenei-raisi/32850541.html
Here is a video from khamenei that he rants about how “shameful” it is in countries that have high claims about their system and yet at election time they have only 35-40% participation, and how it is sign of their failure.
The internet archive comes back to bite khamenei in the ass.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPJP4KBrRDU&t=28s.
The turnout in Iran was higher than a recent by-election in the UK and nearly double that of Super Tuesday in the United States.
Record-Low Voter Turnout Signals Shift in Iranian Politics Amid Rising Dissent
https://iranwire.com/en/politics/126087-record-low-voter-turnout-signals-shift-in-iranian-politics-amid-rising-dissent/
Elections In Iran Shift To Tribes Over Parties, Newspapers Say
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202403058721
For all the talk of managed elections, the main principlist list , the Coalition Council, won only 85 of 245 seats outright. Independents and reformists won 70 seats.
No, again, khar khodeti (we are not chumps).
The parliament is a useless assembly in the mullah state. This whole engineering of election was to control the majlis khobregan, something that khamenei needs if he is to influence who the next leader is going to be. And that groups is stacked with his supporters now.
What Do Official Statistics Reveal About Iran’s Elections?
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202403046568
In these “managed elections”, reformists have won 32 seats with many more races undeclared: https://www.irna.ir/news/85404985
In East Azerbaijan, and a couple of smaller provinces, they have done especially well. 25 independents have also been elected. They can serve as a vocal minority.
There will be a second round in May and it is looking like perhaps two thirds of Tehran’s seats will be decided then
No official turnout figures have been released. It is actually impossible to do so until and unless all of the votes are counted as many mobile ballot boxes were used. There were also technical problems due to floods in some provinces.
In Khatami’s hometown of Ardakan Mostafa Pourdehgan,, a reformist, was elected
In Saqqez, hometown of Mahsa Amini, a reformist, Mohsen Beigari, was elected and the current conservative MP voted out.
In Tabriz, presidential candidate Masoud Pezeskhian, a reformist, was re-elected
In Gachsaran, popular reformist MP, Gholamreza Tajerdoon, was easiiy re-elected
In Rasht, Rouhani’s chief of staff, Mohammad Bagher Nobakht, failed to get elected
In Sari, reformist former MP, Ali Asghar Yousefnejad, failed to get elected.
In Tehran, the results so far indicate that the Coalition Council, led by Qalibaf, is struggling – facing competition from other lists – but many more votes have to be counted.
In Kerman – which definitely had real competition for both the parliament and assembly of experts – there was a high turnout. One reformist was elected in Hashemi Rafsanjani’s hometown.
Now it is being claimed that the 40.6% unofficial turnout is “official”: https://www.wionews.com/videos/iran-elections-2024-officials-claim-voter-turnout-was-a-record-low-of-406-695885
The Interior Ministry and Guardians Council have not said provided any figures so far. The 40.6% claim was first reported on X by Fereshteh Sadeghi, a journalist/observer: https://twitter.com/fresh_sadegh/status/1763669379391140211
It is true that turnout can be estimated as voters show up and are given ballots, but not all polling stations (especially mobile ones) report this to the Interior Ministry during the day, only once votes are counted. It could be correct but we have not received any official results so far.
Preliminary results from Tehran show that SHANA (the Coalition Council) is in trouble: https://www.irna.ir/news/85405479
Principlists close to AMNA and “Morning Iran” are doing much better than expected. These are supportive of Raisi but against Qalibaf.
The principlists of the “Unity Council”, more critical of Raisi, are doing badly.
Fraud, Sanctions and Rigging the System: Iran’s Electoral Realities
https://iranwire.com/en/politics/125957-fraud-sanctions-and-rigging-the-system-irans-electoral-realities/
Record low is understatement. It has been so bad that their head is spinning and are lost for words. They keep rewriting their claim
Yesterday, the in regional reports they said tehran was in single to 10%, and populous provinces like khorasan(religious areas) 20-25%
But somebody yanked the leash of those authorities and ordered not to publicize the results.
Here are some samples of citizens reports:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDnGjkSsH2M
The headline in Hammihan newspaper in first version read “silent majority” referring to missing voters, then changed to “absents and presents”
https://www.radiofarda.com/a/election-iran-participation/32845045.html
I hear khatami did not vote either…
https://www.radiofarda.com/a/khatami-did-not-vote-in-the-iranian-elections/32845021.html