A Ukrainian soldier amid destroyed buildings in Avdiivka in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine

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Monday’s Coverage: Putin Issues A Threat to Finland and NATO

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1807 GMT:

At a news conference, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has announced the military’s request for an additional 450,000 to 500,000 people to be mobilized into the armed forces.

Zelenskiy said 500 billion hryvnias ($13.5 billion) in financing will be needed to support the mobilization.

Then-Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in the summer that about 1 million people are involved in Ukraine’s security and defense services.

Commenting on the blockade by Republicans in the US Congress of further support to Ukraine (see 0751 GMT), he said, “I’m confident the United States won’t betray us.”

However, the President showed concern at the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House in January 2025:

If the policies of the next president are different, whoever he or she might be, are colder, or more frugal, I think those signals will have a very big impact on the course of the war in Ukraine.

Because that’s how the whole world works. If one strong part falls out, the mechanism starts to fall apart.

Amid the veto by Hungarian Prime Minister and Putin ally Viktor Orbán of a €50 billion European Union fund through 2027, Zelenskiy expressed certainty that US and European financial support would continue.

He said of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s commitment to support Ukraine “until the very end”:

Germany…is second in terms of the amount of support we receive….I want to express words of gratitude to [Scholz] for doing that.

UPDATE 1801 GMT:

The UK Defense Ministry has commented on Russia’s high-cost — and inconclusive so far — assault on Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine.

UPDATE 1752 GMT:

UK military intelligence believes Russia fired one of Vladimir Putin’s “superweapons” at Ukraine last Thursday.

The AS-24 Killjoy air-launched ballistic missile, hailed by Putin as a breakthrough weapon in 2018, was aimed at central Ukraine.

The analysts do not identify the specific “high value” target. However, they assess that the Killjoy has had a “mixed combat debut”: “Many of its launches have likely missed their intended targets, while Ukraine has also succeeded in intercepting attacks by this supposedly ‘undefeatable’ system.”

UPDATE 1324 GMT:

Denmark has followed Finland in stepping up military cooperation with the US.

The Danish Defense Ministry said the Defense Cooperation Agreement will allow for US personnel and materials to be stationed at “specific Danish military installations for both the short and long term”. The US will have access to airbases in Karup, Skrydstrup, and Aalborg.

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said, “We are now strengthening our bilateral defense cooperation, and we do not want to hide the fact that the agreement with the US also marks a breakthrough in Danish defence policy, as it involves US soldiers and US material on Danish soil.”

On Monday, Finland and the US signed a defense pact ensuring swift American military access and aid.

Vladimir Putin responded to the imminent agreement in a weekend interview in which he threatened “problems” with Helsinki and NATO: “We will create the Leningrad Military District and concentrate a certain amount of military units there.”

The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the Finnish Ambassador on Tuesday to repeat the warning that Moscow will “take the necessary measures to counter the aggressive decisions of Finland and its NATO allies”.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken posted:

UPDATE 1316 GMT:

UN Human Rights Commissioner Volker Türk has told the Human Rights Council in Geneva, “There has been extensive failure by the Russian Federation to take adequate measures to protect civilians and protect civilian objects against the effects of their attacks.”

He said his office’s monitoring had established “gross violations of international human rights law, serious violations of international humanitarian law, and war crimes, primarily by the forces of the Russian Federation”.

UPDATE 0856 GMT:

Families of mobilized Russian soldiers have called on Vladimir Putin to end his invasion of Ukraine.

Put’ Domoi (Way Home), a group including the wives and mothers of frontline troops, pressed on Monday for a halt to the “special military operation”. They said Putin was “driving people to the brink”:

We Russians have no hope left under your leadership….Sit at the negotiating table.

Let us live in peace! Or go to the frontline yourself and die there.

The message on Telegram was accompanied by video of a mobilized Russian soldier, “Alexander”, who spoke of Putin’s lengthy press conference on Saturday.

“I watched ‘Direct Line’ with our president…and there’s no hope, no signs that our mobilized boys will return home in the foreseeable future,” he said.

Put’ Domoi asked Putin:

How cynical do you have to be to continue this mayhem and put on a brave face? Will you not stop until you kill all the young people?

Will you be having a good time ringing in the New Year with your close ones and a glass of champagne? Well, not our boys.

UPDATE 0807 GMT:

A Russian court has postponed hearings for imprisoned Russian dissident Alexei Navalny until “his whereabouts are established”, his team said Monday.

Navalny disappeared almost two weeks ago when he was moved out of his penal colony, where he was serving a sentence of more than 30 years, to an unknown location.

The lawyers of Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation sent inquiries to more than 200 pre-trial detention centers across Russia last weekend.

They said Monday, “We are waiting for answers.”

UPDATE 0751 GMT:

The Pentagon said it will spend the last $1.07 billion of authorized military aid for Ukraine by December 30.

Pentagon Comptroller Michael McCord, writing the leaders of the House and Senate Defense Committees, said the remaining funds will be used for the purchase of new weapons and equipment to replace supplies sent to Kyiv.

“Once these funds are allocated, the department will exhaust available funding to help ensure the security of Ukraine,” McCord wrote.

Republicans in Congress have held up further support for Ukraine since October. Initially, the blockade was by a faction of hard-right Republicans and Trumpists in the House; however, mainstream Senators and Representatives have joined them, insisting that priority be given to draconian border measures.

See also EA on BBC: Maintaining Support of Ukraine v. Russia’s Invasion

Ukraine’s top military commander, Gen. Valery Zalushnyi, said this week that forces are limiting their expenditure of ammunition because of the uncertainty.

Alexandra Ustinova, explained that three lines of fortifications are being built: “We will have to switch to a defensive war, and not go on the offensive. And we understand well that, even when money is allocated, the world is running out of ammunition.”

ORIGINAL ENTRY: After an all-out assault of more than two months, Russia’s forces have damaged or destroyed almost every building in the town of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine.

The Russians have tried throughout Vladimir Putin’s 22-month invasion to overrun Avdiivka, about 20 km (12.5 miles) from Donetsk city, the center of Russia’s occupation in the east since 2014.

In October, they launched round-the-clock bombing and artillery shelling, with armored columns tried to enter the town. When that did not work, with the loss of dozens of tanks and more than 100 armored vehicles in a single day, Russia switched to “human wave” attacks.

Despite the “zombie movie” — reminiscent of Russia finally occupying Bakhmut in Donetsk in May after a year-long assault — the Russians are still not in Avdiivka.

The Centre for Information Resilience documents that all 17 educational institutions have been hit, as have nine of 11 medical clinics, all five churches, and the three large supermarkets. Of 26 Soviet-era tower blocks, which housed thousands of Avdiivka’s pre-invasion population of about 32,500, 25 have been struck.

Belén Carrasco Rodriguez, the lead author of the report, summarizes:

The bombardment of the city has been relentless – almost no building in the city center has been left unscathed, with nearly all critical civilian infrastructure like schools, hospitals and supermarkets largely destroyed or damaged.

Russian strategy has involved the indiscriminate shelling of urban areas alongside the use of more precise weaponry to target specific buildings. We’ve seen similar patterns in other frontline cities such as Mariupol and Bakhmut, where we mapped Russian forces’ aggressive encirclement of those cities.

Mayor Vitalii Barabash says 154 residents have been killed. About 1200 civilians remain in the town.