The Russian landing ship Novocherkassk burns after being struck by a Ukrainian guided missile in the port of Feodosia in occupied Crimea, December 26, 2023

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EA on WION News and Talk TV: Ukraine War — Reality v. Propaganda and the Narrative of “Stalemate”

Tuesday’s Coverage: Zelenskiy’s Christmas Message, “Our Air Defense Will Only Grow Stronger”

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1516 GMT:

Russian shelling has left 70% of consumers without electricity in the Kherson region in southern Ukraine.

Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said the shelling “badly damaged” infrastructure.

The power engineers are already working. Now they determine the extent of the damage, and then they immediately begin emergency restoration work. It’s difficult to say when they will be completed.

Russian attacks in the past 24 hours, including on a railway station, have killed a police officer and another man and wounded four people (see 1037 GMT).

UPDATE 1345 GMT:

Anti-war Russian journalist and former regional legislator Yekaterina Duntsova has lost her appeal to stand in the Presidential election on March 14.

Duntsova was nominated by 521 participants at a Moscow meeting earlier this month. The Central Electoral Commission unanimously barred her on December 23, on the pretext that her application as a candidate had numerous “mistakes”.

Duntsova is calling for an end to the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and for democratic reforms and the release of political prisoners.

UPDATE 1037 GMT:

A second man has died from Russia’s overnight drone attacks near Odesa city in southern Ukraine (see 0828 GMT).

The man had been taken to the hospital in serious condition.

Another civilian has been killed in the Kherson region in the south this morning, following Tuesday night’s attack on a railway station that slew a policeman and wounded four people (see 0755 GMT).

The 59-year-old man was walking down the street when the Russians shelled the settlement of Novoberyslav.

A drone attack on a hospital injured an employee.

UPDATE 0934 GMT:

The Telegram channel Astra claims 33 Russian sailors are missing, with one person killed and 23 injured, after the Ukraine missile strike on the Russian landing ship Novocherkassk in the port of Feodosia in occupied Crimea on Tuesday.

The fatality was a 64-year-old port security worker. Four of the wounded were civilians.

Russian officials have only acknowledged one death and two injuries, and has not mentioned missing and wounded sailors.

UPDATE 0841 GMT:

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu claims Moscow’s forces have occupied the devastated small town of Mariinka in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.

The town would be only the second seized by Russia since July 2022. The other is Bakhmut, also in the Donetsk region, overrun in May after a year of assaults.

The commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said troops remain in the northern flank of the town, which is in ruins.

Mariinka is about 30 km (19 miles) west of Donetsk city, the center of Russia’s occupation of eastern Ukraine since 2014. The town had a pre-invasion population of about 10,000.

The US-based Institute for the War analyzes:

Russia’s likely capture of Marinka in Donetsk Oblast represents a limited Russian tactical gain and does not portend any operationally significant advance unless Russian forces have dramatically improved their ability to conduct rapid mechanized forward movement, which they show no signs of having done….

Russian forces have advanced roughly over three kilometers in depth into Mariinka since February 24, 2022, and there are no indications that the rate of Russian advance to the next settlements identified as tactical Russian objectives will be any quicker, especially considering the rate of attrition that Russian forces suffered to capture a small settlement directly on the border of territory Russia has controlled since 2014.

UPDATE 0828 GMT:

The Ukraine Air Force says air defenses downed 32 out of 46 Iran-made Shahed attack drones launched by Russia overnight.

A 35-year-old man was killed and at least four injured, including a 6-year-old girl and a 17-year-old, by fallng debris in the Odesa region in southern Ukraine.

Air defenses in Odesa downed 12 drones, but debris hit a house, setting it on fire.

The UAVs were launched from occupied Crimea and Russia’s Krasnodar region.

UPDATE 0755 GMT:

A policeman was killed and four people injured in Russian shelling of a railway station in Kherson city in southern Ukraine on Tuesday evening.

The Russians attacked as a train was preparing to evacuate 140 civilians.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Eroding Russia’s control of the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, Ukraine has destroyed another of Moscow’s warships.

A guided missile struck the landing ship Novocherkask, in port in Feodosia in occupied Crimea. Video showed an initial fire, followed by a large secondary explosion.

The commander of the Ukraine Air Force, Lt. Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk celebrated, “The fleet in Russia is getting smaller and smaller! Thanks to the Air Force pilots and everyone involved for the [fine] work!”

Later, the Air Force marked the destruction, as well as of 13 of 19 attack drones, with a reference to SpongeBob Square Pants:

Russia’s Defense Ministry eventually acknowledged the attack, saying that the Novocherkassk had been damaged but refusing to admit its destruction.

Is Ukraine Winning the Maritime War?

In the initial days of the February 2022 invasion, Russia’s navy took full control of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Moscow blockaded Ukraine’s ports, hoping to break its economy by cutting off exports of grain and other foodstuffs.

But Ukraine sank Russia’s Black Sea flagship, the missile cruiser Moskva, in April 2022. From the summer, the tide was turned with drone and missile strikes far behind frontlines, as well as sabotage by partisan groups. Warships were destroyed in ports in occupied Crimea and inside Russia. Port facilities and even the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol in Crimea were attacked, with dozens of officers killed last September.

In response, much of the Black Sea fleet has been moved out of Crimean ports to those inside Russia. Another two warships reportedly left Feodosia soon after Tuesday’s attack.

The withdrawal has ended Russia’s control of the western Black Sea. Despite Vladimir Putin’s attempt to renew the blockade of Ukrainian ports in July 2023, a corridor has been established for the grain shipments.

The attacks are also threatening Russia’s forces on the ground, in combination with strikes on bridges, oil and ammunition depots, and other supply and logistic positions.

The Novocherkassk is the third large landing ship to be destroyed or heavily damaged since the summer, limiting Russia’s ability to move troops, armor, weapons, and supplies.

Ukraine’s military is hoping that the outcome will be not only to prevent any renewal of Vladimir Putin’s invasion, but also to weaken Moscow’s defenses in southern Ukraine and eventually Crimea.