Photo: Karen Minasyan/Getty

EA on TVP World: Ukraine and F16s, Azerbaijan-Armenia, and US-China

In a 30-minute interview, I chat with Times Radio’s James Hanson about the status of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — past, present, and future — and the prospect that failure could topple Vladimir Putin after 23 years atop the Russian system.

I begin by dismantling the misleading notion of “stalemate” — evaluating how far Ukraine has come since surviving the opening weeks of the Russian invasion; assessing the current situation; and pointing out the political and economic as well as the military dimensions.

This is a marathon, not a sprint.

Cautioning against any predictions of Putin’s fall in the near-future, I explain how he has tightened his grip on the Russian system — for now — anticipating and eliminating challengers.

Could this change?

If Russia suffered a catastrophic defeat on the battlefield, if it suffered a setback similar to that of autumn 2022 — when a Ukrainian counter-offensive liberated all of a region — then yes, that could herald not only the end of Putin but of the Russian system as we currently know it.