Ukrainian troops on the Zaporizhzhia front in the south of the country

EA on Poland’s TVP World: Will F-16s for Ukraine Make A Difference?

Some Thoughts on Resolve Over Ukraine

Monday’s Coverage: Up to 61 F-16s For Kyiv From Denmark and Netherlands

Map: Institute for Study of War

UPDATE 1648 GMT:

Gen. Sergey Surovikin — a former commander of Vladimir Putin’s invasion — has been removed as Commander-in-Chief of Russia’s Aerospace Forces, according to Alexei Venediktov, the former head of Moscow radio station Echo.

Venediktov said the dismissal was ordered by Vladimir Putin. Surovikin remains an employee of the Defense Ministry.

Journalist Ksenia Sobchak also cites sources that Surovikin was fired by closed decree last Friday.

Surovikin was reportedly interrogated and put under house arrest within days of the rebellion by Wagner Group mercenaries and their advance on Moscow on June 23-24.

See also Ukraine War, Day 506: 13+ Senior Russian Officers Detained, 15 Fired or Suspended After Wagner Group Rebellion — Sources

UPDATE 1609 GMT:

A Moscow court has upheld a 13-year prison sentence on Ukrainian human rights activist Maksym Butkevych.

Amnesty International criticized the denial of Butkevych’s appeal as “a grave miscarriage of justice”. Denis Krivosheev, the deputy regional director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, said:

A court in Moscow has upheld the decision made during a sham trial which was held in secret, against a defendant who had limited contact with the outside world, including his lawyer, and who was apparently forced to incriminate himself on video for a crime which [he] simply could not have committed.

Before Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Butkevych led a Ukrainian NGO helping refugees find protection in the country. After the invasion, he volunteered for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and was put in charge of a platoon. His unit was later captured on the frontline by Russian forces.

UPDATE 1540 GMT:

Speaking at the Ukraine-Balkans summit in Greece, Prime Minister Andrej Plenković has said Croatia will provide Ukraine with a new €30 million ($32.6 million) military aid package.

Plenković also announced a “major international demining conference”, focused on Ukraine, in October.

UPDATE 1432 GMT:

A 71-year-old woman has been killed and a 55-year-old man wounded in Russian shelling of the village of Komyshany in the Kherson region in southern Ukraine on Tuesday morning.

UPDATE 1359 GMT:

At a summit in Athens, Greece, the leaders of 11 Balkan and eastern European countries have issued a joint declaration of “unwavering support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders” in the face of Russia’s aggression.

Ukraine was joined in the statement by Serbia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Greece.

The leaders expressed their “support and appreciation for the earnest efforts by Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy in setting out the principles for peace in line with the UN Charter”.

UPDATE 1354 GMT:

Eight Ukrainian pilots are in Denmark for training on US-made F-16 fighter jets.

The pilots and 65 personnel,to be trained in maintaining and servicing the jets, have arrived at the Danish military airbase in Skrydstrup.

On Sunday, Denmark confirmed that it will deliver 19 F-16s to Ukraine, with the first six sent around New Year.

UPDATE 1228 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says Luxembourg has also joined the G7 Declaration on security guarantees for Ukraine (see 0639 GMT).

Zelenskiy posted, “I thank Luxembourg and its people for their unwavering support for Ukraine, which is based on shared democratic ideals and the common interests of our Euro-Atlantic family.”

UPDATE 1217 GMT:

At the Ukraine-Balkans summit in Greece, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has announced the disbursement of another €1.5 billion ($1.63 billion) in European Union financial assistance to Ukraine.

The EU has now committed €19.2 billion ($20.9 billion) in aid.

UPDATE 0805 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has described an “open, honest, and fruitful meeting” with Aleksandar Vučić, Serbia’s President and a long-time ally of Vladimir Putin.

UPDATE 0737 GMT:

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group mercenaries, has posted his first video address since his 36-hour rebellion and advance on Moscow in late June.

Prigozhin purportedly appeared in Africa in the clip posted on Monday. He stood in a desert area in camouflage and with a rifle in his hands. Armed men and a pickup truck were in the distance behind him.

Under the deal with the Kremlin ending the rebellion, Prigozhin was supposed to relocate in Belarus. Some Wagner fighters have moved to the country, reportedly training Belarusian forces.

Prigozhin said in the video that Wagner, conducting reconnaissance and search activities, is “making Russia even greater on all continents, and Africa even more free”. He asserted that the mercenaries “will fulfil the tasks that were set”.

Wagner-linked social media channels said Prigozhin is recruiting fighters to work in Africa and inviting Russian investors to put money into the Central African Republic, using the “cultural center” Russian House in the capital Bangui.

The US-based Institute for the Study of War evaluates the video as part of Prigozhin’s battle with the Russian Defense Ministry.

If Wagner is able to secure contracts in Africa and deploy its personnel before the Russian MoD can deploy personnel, then Prigozhin and Wagner may retain at least some ability to operate independently in Africa contrary to the MoD’s efforts to eliminate Wagner.

UPDATE 0719 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has hailed “fruitful talks” at the Ukraine-Balkans summit in Athens on Monday.

Bulgarian Defense Minister Teodor Tagarev, at a briefing in Odesa in southern Ukraine, said Sofia will begin transferring 100 Soviet-era armored vehicles to Kyiv in late September or early October.

Zelenskiy said he will meet other Balkan colleagues on Tuesday.

UPDATE 0659 GMT:

UK military intelligence notes the reports that Ukrainian drones damaged or destroyed two Russian warplanes in the Novgorod region, 650 km (403 miles) inside Russia.

Photos posted on Sunday showed a Tu-22M3 long-range supersonic bomber ablaze. Observers queried how a mall and relatively inexpensive quadrocopter inflicted so much damage, and why warplanes were not in hangars.

The UK analysts note that this is at least the third successful attack on airfields of Russia’s Long Range Aviation, and adds, “If true, this adds weight to the assessment that some UAV attacks against Russian military targets are being launched from inside Russian territory.”

UPDATE 0648 GMT:

Ukraine drones have damaged buildings near Moscow.

Russian officials claimed two drones were downed on Tuesday morning over Krasnogorsk, a town outside the capital which hosts the Moscow regional government, and two over the Bryansk region bordering Ukraine. The Defense Ministry said there were no casualties.

Videos and pictures from Krasnogorsk showed broken windows in a high-rise apartment building, debris on a pavement, and a car with a hole in its roof. A Reuters reporter saw minor damage to tiling on a high-rise residential building and shattered window panes in a few of the apartments.

Three of Moscow’s airports again briefly suspended flights.

UPDATE 0639 GMT:

Greece has joined the G7 nations — the US, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Japan, and Canada — in security guarantees for Ukraine.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Athens’ pledge at a press conference after his meeting with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

We will continue this work at the bilateral level to make the format of security guarantees a model for other states that need effective security guarantees. The world will definitely become more stable as a result of such joint security work.

Mitsotakis said Russia’s war crimes during its invasion “must be punished under international law”.

He noted Greece’s support for sanctions against Moscow and of Ukraine’s integration with the European Union.

Greece was Zelenskiy’s fourth European stop in three days, following meetings in Sweden, the Netherlands, and Denmark.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Ukraine’s 2 1/2-month counter-offensive has made a “tactically significant” advance on the southern front in the western Zaporizhzhia region.

Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces in the center of Robotyne, 10 km (6.2 miles) south of Orikhiv, in the direction of the port city of Melitopol.

They also broke through some Russian defenses south of Mala Tokmachka, 9 km southeast of Orikhiv.

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar also reported the advances, with Russian forces unsuccessfully counter-attacking east of Robotyne.

If the Ukrainians establish positions in and near Robotyne, they may begin to operate past the densent Russian minefields, which have inflicted losses and held up armored vehicles. Success would also extend the degradation of Russian forces who have committed much of their effort, resources, and personnel to hold positions in the area.

Malyar added that the counter-offensive has also made a gradual advance on the eastern front, recaptured another 3 square km (1.2 square miles) around the city of Bakhmut. Ukrainian officials also reported success south of Kreminna while continuing to hold back Russia’s counter-attacks.