Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Danish Prime Minister Mette Fredriksen in the cockpit of a Danish F-16 fighter jet, Skrydstrup Airbase, Denmark, August 20, 2023

Some Thoughts on Resolve Over Ukraine

Sunday’s Coverage: Russia Kills 7+, Injures 144 in a Theater and City Square

Map: Institute for Study of War

UPDATE 1642 GMT:

Visiting his fourth European country in three days, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is in Greece to meet Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. He will attend an informal dinner with leaders from western and eastern Balkans and from the European Union.

En route, Zelenskiy posted a thank you to hosts in Denmark, where he received a commitment of 19 F-16 fighter jets.

UPDATE 1303 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy addresses the Danish Parliament in Copenhagen on Monday morning:

All of Russia’s neighbors are under threat if Ukraine does not prevail.

International law will not be resuscitated. Democracies of the world, each of them can become a target – either for missiles, or for mercenaries, or for destabilisation, and I am sure you can fill it.

But Ukraine will prevail. Thank you for all the help provided to Ukraine.

UPDATE 0913 GMT:

Two Russian soldiers explain how, rather than being treated as returning heroes from the Ukraine frontline, they are greeted in Moscow as “murderers”.

UPDATE 0750 GMT:

Hardliners in Russia’s security forces are suggesting that Vladimir Putin replace Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu, declare martial law, and begin a general mobilization, according to “five people familiar with the situation“.

“Special services” officials are also calling for the dismissal of overall commmander of the invasion, Gen. Valery Gerasimov.

UPDATE 0738 GMT:

A Ukrainian drone attack damaged or destroyed two Russian warplanes in the Novgorod region on Saturday, say Russian military observers.

The obesrvers criticized the Defense Ministry for downplaying the severity of the attack by a small and relatively inexpensive quadrocopter. The Ministry insisted on Saturday that a drone was shot down with small arms and that emergency services quickly put out a fire in one warplane.

Photos posted on Sunday show a Tu-22M3 long-range supersonic bomber ablaze. Observers queried why warplanes were not in hangars.

UPDATE 0728 GMT:

The Ukrainian Resistance Center says Russian officials are planning a decade-long ethnic cleansing campaign in the occupied port city of Mariupol in southeast Ukraine.

The Cente, syaing Ukrainian partisans obtained a Russian occupation development, said the occupiers set out a 300,000 increase in Mariupol’s population by 2035 through migration from Russia.

It added that a preferential mortgage program for Russians who move to Mariupol is part of the resettlement plan.

The Russians devastated Mariupol in 12 weeks of bombing, ground assaults, and siege in spring 2022, killing tens of thousands of civilians and displaced hundreds of thousands before defenders surrendered at the end of May. About 50,000 residents were deported to Russia and Russian-occupied territory.

UPDATE 0626 GMT:

The toll from Saturday’s Russian missile attack on Chernihiv in northern Ukraine has risen to seven killed and 156 injured.

A 6-year-old child was slain, and at least 15 other juveniles were among the wounded.

The Russians fired an Iskander-M ballistic missile into the Taras Shevchenko Theater, which was holding an exposition on drones. People in the square were heading to church on a religous holiday.

The roof of the theater collapsed after a fire was extinguished.

Ukraine Presidential aide Oleksiy Kuleba said 66 residential buildings, 10 administrative buildings, and 67 vehicles were damaged.

UPDATE 0610 GMT:

The Russian Defense Ministry said two Ukraine drones were downed through electronic jamming on Monday morning.

One drone fell in the Ruzsky district, west of the capital, and other in Odintsovo, southwest of Moscow.

The capital’s Domodedovo, Vnukovo, Sheremetyevo and Zhukovsky airports briefly restricted arrivals and departures, affecting 45 passenger flights and two cargo planes.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Denmark and the Netherlands have committed up to 61 US-made F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine as soon as pilot training has been completed.

Sunday’s pledges — the first to Kyiv after months of multi-national talks — came during visits by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to both countries.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen gave the first specific confirmation of a timetable. Copenhagen will deliver 19 jets: six around New Year, eight in 2024, and five in 2025.

“Please take this donation as a token of Denmark’s unwavering support for your country’s fight for freedom,” she said to Zelenskiy.

Earlier in the day, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said at a joint press conference on a military airbase in Eindhoven:

Today we can announce that the Netherlands and Denmark commit to the transfer of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine and the Ukrainian air force, including cooperation with the United States and other partners once the conditions for such a transfer have been met….

The military training will start in the very near future, and then it will take of course some time for the planes to get operational with well-trained pilots, but we’ll do everything to make it happen as soon as possible.

Rutte did not announce the number of F-16s, but noted that the Netherlands has 42 in its air force. The Dutch were already replacing the jets with US-made F-35s.

Zelenskiy indicated that all 42 F-16s would be delivered a decision which was “absolutely historic, powerful and inspiring for us”:

Mark Rutte and I reached an agreement on the number of F-16s to be transferred to Ukraine once our pilots and engineers have completed their training. 42 jets. And this is just the beginning.

He later thanked both countries on Twitter:

The path to the announcements was laid on Thursday by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a letter to Danish and Dutch counterparts approving the supply of the F-16s.

Zelenskiy also indicated, after a meeting in Stockholm with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson on Saturday, that discussions have begun on delivery of Swedish Gripen fighter jets to Kyiv.

The President said training of Ukrainian pilots on the jets has begun.

F-16s Operational by the New Year?

Senior Ukraine officials said on Saturday that pilots have begun training on F-16 fighter jets with US instructors inside the country. They pointed to the jets in operation by early 2024.

“The F-16 aircraft was in Ukraine. It landed at our airfields, we conducted joint training with F-16 pilots….A day ago two of my pilots were tested by US instructors,” Air Force Commander Oleksandr Oleshchuk told State TV.

He said that while the total training period is normally 32 months, “for this class of pilots, they will be able to master the F-16 aircraft in four months”.

Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in a separate interview that Ukrainian engineers and technicians are training alongside the pilots. He would not disclose how long the instruction would last, but noted that “a minimal term of training is six months”.

Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov betrayed Moscow’s concern over the development. He snarled that the F-16s will be considered a “nuclear” threat because of their capacity to carry atomic weapons.