Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy greets European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen, Kyiv, May 9, 2023 (AFP)

EA on Ireland’s RTE: Putin’s Bridge — and Ukraine Invasion — Are Falling Down

Tuesday’s Coverage: “100s of Millions Will Pay The Price” — Putin Rips Up Black Sea Grain Deal

Map: Institute for Study of War

UPDATE 1819 GMT:

Russia is threatening to intercept — and possibly attack — any ship travelling to or from a Ukrainian port on the Black Sea, following Vladimir Putin’s shredding of the July 2022 grain deal.

Moscow is using the pretext that the ships, with essential foodstuffs for areas such as Africa, may be carrying military contraband.

UPDATE 1811 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has commented on today’s Russian airstrikes on Odesa in southern Ukraine, destroying grain stores and crippling port facilities (see 1315 GMT).

UPDATE 1713 GMT:

The US has announced another $1.3 billion military package for Ukraine, including air defense capabilities and munitions.

UPDATE 1702 GMT:

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group mercenaries, has finally shown up in Belarus after his mini-rebellion against the Kremlin last month.

Prigozhin was shown in a video telling Wagner fighters, “Welcome lads….Welcome to Belarusian soil.” He said they would take no further part in Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine for now.

He threw another jab at Russian military leaders, whose dismissals he demanded — but failed to obtain — during his fighters’ advance on Moscow:

We fought honourably.

You have done a great deal for Russia. What is going on at the front is a disgrace that we do not need to get involved in.

Prigozhin told the men to behave well towards locals and orders them to train the Belarusian army. Referring to Wagner’s overseas operations, controlling raw material and mineral resources, he said they should collect their strength for a “new journey to Africa”.

“Perhaps we will return to the SMO [Putin’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine] at some point when we are sure that we will not be forced to shame ourselves,” he says.

Under last month’s deal ending the 36-hour rebellion, Prigozhin was supposed to move to Belarus. However, there was uncertainty as he stayed in Russia, including for a June 29 meeting with Putin.

UPDATE 1326 GMT:

Five central European countries — Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia — want European Union permission to extend their bans on imports of Ukrainian grains until the end of 2023, said agriculture ministers after a meeting in Warsaw.

In May, the EU allowed the quintet to ban domestic sales of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seeds, while permitting transit of the cargoes for export elsewhere. The measure is set to end on September 15.

The five countries maintain that the import of Ukrainian grains hurt their farmers.

UPDATE 1315 GMT:

Russia’s airstrikes have caused significant damage to grain storage at the Chornomorsk port in the Odesa region in southern Ukraine.

Ukraine Agriculture Minister Mykola Solsky said, “The night-time attack put a considerable part of the grain export infrastructure in the port of Chornomorsk out of operation.”

The strikes destroyed 60,000 tons of grain at the port that should have been loaded and shipped 60 days ago via the Black Sea Grain Initiative, ripped up by Vladimir Putin on Monday.

UPDATE 1308 GMT:

In an unannounced trip to Kyiv, Irish Taioseach Leo Varadkar has met Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Speaking along Zelenskiy, Varadkar said:

My visits to the sites of these [Russian] atrocities this morning, and my meeting here in Kyiv, has confirmed to me that Russia will not succeed, and Russia cannot be allowed to succeed.

If Russia thinks that targeting civilians and essential infrastructure will discourage Ukraine’s friends, including Ireland, well, it’s wrong.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, we will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes. Ukraine will prevail and Ukraine will be rebuilt.

UPDATE 1128 GMT:

The South African Presidency has confirmed that Vladimir Putin will not attend the August BRICS [Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa] summit in Johannesburg in person.

The Presidency said that, by mutual agreement, Russia’s delegation will be led by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

The Kremlin said Putin’s “full-fledged participation” in the summit will be assured by video conferencing.

Last week South African Vice President Paul Mashatile asked Putin not to come to Johannesburg. Pretoria is obligated to enforce the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Putin, issued in March over Russia’s mass deportations of Ukrainian children.

UPDATE 0800 GMT:

Russia’s 2 a.m. airstrikes on the Odesa region (see 0548 GMT) hit the grain and oil terminal, damaging tanks and equipment, says Ukraine military spokesperson Vladyslav Nazarov.

Odesa Mayor Hennadii Trukhanov posted on Facebook, “We do not recall such a scale of attack since the beginning of a full-scale invasion…. We are grateful to the air defense system. It was a fierce air battle.”

The Ukraine Air Force said six high-precision Onix missiles were directed at the port, where US Agency for International Development head Samatha Power (see 0612 GMT) held a press conference on Tuesday.

An industrial facility was hit, injuring an employee, and warehouses with tobacco and fireworks were struck. Several apartment buildings were damaged by an explosive wave, with at least six residents, including a 9-year-old boy, seeking medical help after being injured by fragments of glass and other objects.

Jamie Wilson of the Guardian says that, soon after the attacks, “it [was] business as usual in central Odesa this morning, with lots of cars and buses and people going off to work”.

UPDATE 0659 GMT:

The Ukraine Air Force says it downed 37 of 63 targets in Russia’s overnight attack, including 23 Iranian-made “kamikaze” drones and 14 cruise missiles.

The Air Force confirmed that the main target was the southern Odesa region (see 0548 GMT) as the Russians aimed at critical infrastructure and military facilities.

UPDATE 0620 GMT:

Turkey and Saudi Arabia are trying to arrange the repatriation of thousands of Ukrainian children who have been forcibly taken to Russia, according to “four people familiar with the negotatiations”.

The Financial Times says officials in Ukraine and Russia are compiling lists for a “mediation process”. Two sources said sanctioned Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich is involved in the talks.

The Ukraine Government has identified more than 19,000 children deported to Russia — many of them placed in orphanages or with Russian families — or Russian-occupied territory. In March, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Vladimir Putin and the Russian “children’s rights commissioner” Maria Belova-Lvova over the abductions.

A diplomat said Saudi Arabia raised the issue of the deported Ukrainian children at a meeting with officials from G20 countries in Copenhagen in June. The other nations approved Riyadh’s mediation.

UPDATE 0612 GMT:

The US Agency for International Development is allocating an additional $250 million for Ukraine’s agricultural sector.

The US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, announced the aid during a visit to Odesa in southern Ukraine with AID Director Samantha Power.

The assistance comes a day after Vladimir Putin ripped up the July 2022 deal lifting Russia’s blockade of 3 Ukrainian Black Sea ports, renewing Moscow’s threat to the transport of grain and foodstuffs.

UPDATE 0559 GMT:

The nephew of Vladimir Putin’s Chechen acolyte Ramzan Kadyrov has been appointed as the new head of French yoghurt maker Danone’s Russian subsidiary.

Yakub Zakriev is listed as the general director after the Russian State seized control of Danone, along with Danish beer manufacturer Carlsberg, on Sunday.

Zakriev was installed as Chechnya’s Deputy Prime minister and Agriculture Minister by his uncle, designated the Chechen leader by Putin in 2007.

Danone is Russia’s largest dairy company, with about 8,000 employees. It was in the process of selling its Russian subsidiary after deciding to end operations in the country because of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Danone was expected to absorb a loss of €1 billion ($1.1 billion) with the sell-off.

UPDATE 0554 GMT:

Russian military training grounds in occupied Crimea are on fire after explosions on Wednesday morning.

The Russain proxy “governor” of Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov said more than 2,000 people will be evacuated from four settlements in the area next to the training grounds.

UPDATE 0548 GMT:

Russia has launched airstrikes on the Odesa region in southern Ukraine for the second consecutive night.

Ukraine’s Air Force said Kalibr missiles were fired from Russian warships in the Black Sea. Odesa Governor Oleg Kiper, citing a “massive attack”, asked residents to stay in shelters.

Video on social media showed a multi-story apartment building with several windows blown out.

Russia also attacked with Iranian-made “kamikaze” drones and Kalibr missiles early Tuesday. An infrastructure facility was set on fire, and an elderly man was injured by debris from downed munitions.

The Kyiv city administration says all drones fired on the capital this morning were intercepted.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: The European Union is planning a fund of up of €20 billion ($22.45 billion) to support Ukraine’s military for the next four years.

The fund will help EU countries cover the costs of purchasing and donating materiel such as ammunition, missiles and tanks, and of training Ukrainian soldiers.

The 27-nation bloc has allocated €4 billion in military support, through the European Peace Facility, during Russia’s 17-month invasion.

EU foreign policy head Josep Borrell said last month, “You have to make Ukraine able to defend. So the European Peace Facility for Ukraine, maybe it has to become a new Ukrainian defense fund.”

The EU’s European External Action Service has recommended security commitments to Ukraine for years to come. They including a “sustained” flow of weapons to Kyiv, continuation of military education and training, the sharing of intelligence, and connection of Ukrainian and EU defense companies.

“Long-term and predictable financial support” will help Kyiv’s reconstruction, laying the path for membership of the EU which “would be in itself a security commitment”.

A EU diplomat said, “The more we can talk about long-term engagements, the more we can send [Vladimir] Putin the message that he cannot count on European fatigue, due to elections or whatever other reason.”

At the NATO Summit last week, the G7 countries — France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan, the UK, and the US — set out a similar political, economic, and military framework.

See also EA on Australia’s ABC: Ukraine, the NATO Summit, and Putin v. Prigozhin