Vladimir Putin at the Obukhov State Plant, St. Petersburg, Russia, January 18, 2023

EA on Times Radio and Australia’s ABC: Putin’s War at Home

EA on Times Radio: Rebellion in Russia; Scotland’s SNP Struggles; A Year After End of Roe v. Wade

Sunday’s Coverage: After Prigozhin’s Mini-Rebellion, What Now For Putin and His Invasion?

Map: Institute for Study of War

UPDATE 2006 GMT:

Igor Girkin, the former commander of Russian proxy forces in eastern Ukraine who is a leading critic of the Kremlin’s conduct of its invasion, was unmoved by Vladimir Putin’s speech: “I haven’t seen anything more pitiful in the performance of a man remotely resembling the President….The confusion continues”.”

UPDATE 1949 GMT:

Vladimir Putin has delivered a 5 1/2-minute speech, his first public appearance since Saturday’s deal to end the rebellion of the Wagner Group.

Putin referred to “colossal threats” facing Russia. He did not mention Wagner head Yevgeny Progozhin by name; however, he said organizers of rebellion had betrayed the Russian people and were “doomed to fail”.

He justified the deal permitting Prigozhin to go to Belarus and guaranteeing amnesty for Wagner’s men.

I made steps to avoid large bloodshed. This needed time including letting those who made a mistake change their mind and see the consequences this will lead to.

Most of the address tried to split Wagner’s mercenaries from their leader. Putin said “the organizers” had also betrayed those drawn into the mutiny: “The majority of Wagner commanders and fighters are patriots. They were used covertly against their brothers-in-arms.”

He thanked the fighters for making the “right decision” in refusing to engage in fratricide and offered them a choice: sign contracts with the Defense Ministry or go to Belarus.

UPDATE 1524 GMT:

In his first public comments since halting his rebellion on Saturday night, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin says the operation showed that there were “serious problems with security on the whole territory” of Russia.

The mercenary leader explained his acceptance of a deal with the Kremlin:

Our decision to turn back had two factors: we didn’t want to spill Russian blood. Secondly, we marched as a demonstration of our protest.

Prigozhin said his men captured Rostov-on-Don and marched on Moscow because they had been targeted with artillery fire by Russian conventional units in Ukraine — the “trigger for us to move out immediately” — and because of Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu’s decree that all combatants sign contracts with the Ministry.

The goal of the march was to not allow the destruction of the Wagner private military company and hold to account the officials who through their unprofessional actions have committed a massive number of errors. Society demanded it.

He emphasized that Wagner fighters will continue their refusal to sign contracts.

Prigozhin acknowledged that Wagner had killed Russian airmen when they downed at least seven warplanes and helicopters: “They regretted that they were required to carry out strikes against aircraft but they were hitting our forces with bombs and rocket strikes.”

UPDATE 1422 GMT:

Russian artillery shelling has killed a 51-year-old woman and a 50-year-old man in Nikopol in south-central Ukraine.

The victims were employees of a private enterprise. A 49-year-old man was moderately wounded.

UPDATE 1130 GMT:

The Ukrainian counter-offensive has liberated a ninth village on the southern front.

Troops moved into Rivnopil, west of the other eight villages recaptured earlier this month near the border of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions.

“Defense forces have brought Rivnopil back under our control. We are moving ahead,” posted Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar on Telegram.

Maliar said earlier on Monday that Ukrainian forces had liberated about 130 square km (50 square miles) in the south.

UPDATE 1007 GMT:

The European Union has agreed to increase the European Peace Facility, used for military aid to Ukraine, by more than 40%.

Responding to a request by foreign policy head Josep Borell, the EU countries raised the EPF’s ceiling by €3.5 billion to more than €12 billion ($13.08 billion).

The EPF has been used to provide about €4.6 billion in military aid to Kyiv.

UPDATE 0948 GMT:

One civilian has been killed and seven, injured, a pregnant woman, by Russian shelling of the Kherson region in southern Ukraine on Monday.

Oleksandr Prokudin, head of the Kherson region military administration, said residential districts of Kherson city were among areas hit by 17 shells. The villages of Antonivka and Burhunka were also struck.

UPDATE 0851 GMT:

Pointing to weekend advances on the eastern front near Bakhmut in Ukraine’s counter-offensive (see Original Entry), UK military intelligence assesses:

There has been little evidence that Russia maintains any significant ground forces operational level reserves which could be used to reinforce against the multiple threats it is facing in widely separated sectors, from Bakhmut to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, over 200 km away.

UPDATE 0837 GMT:

Russian military bloggers suggest that the Kremlin lied this morning when it said Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu had visited Ukraine (see 0614 GMT).

The bloggers note that the images and video released today by the Defense Ministry could be from Shoygu’s trip to the Russian border region of Belgorod last Friday.

UPDATE 0833 GMT:

The Kremlin appears to be walking away from its deal with Yevgeny Prigozhin to end the Wagner Group rebellion.

Citing a “source in the Prosecutor General’s office”, Kommersant and then Russia State outlet RIA said the criminal case against Prigozhin over incitement of armed rebellion, with a potential prison sentence of 20 years, has not been dropped.

The development follows 24 hours of statements by Russian politicians and State TV commentators — either carrying out the Kremlin’s shift or pressing Vladimir Putin to do so — calling for any amnesty deal to be revoked.

Andrey Gurulyov, a member of the Duma’s Defense Committee and former deputy commander of the Southern Military Command, said:

There is a law of the Russian Federation. Our military personnel died, they died from the blows of specific individuals. Who gave the command, who launched the rocket?

Therefore, be that as it may, no matter who runs away and no matter where they are, I believe that the Investigative Committee will thoroughly deal with this issue and make a decision.

UPDATE 0800 GMT:

The European Union’s foreign policy head Josep Borrell says that the Wagner Group rebellion demonstrates how Russia’s military power is “cracking”.

“The monster Putin has created is turning against him,” Borrell asserted.

As he arrival at a summit of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg, he warned:

What is happening in Russia, it is important to understand that this is cracking the Russian military power and affecting its political system. And certainly it is not it’s not a good thing to see that a nuclear power like Russia is going into a phase of political instability.

The most important conclusion is the war against Ukraine launched by Putin and the monster that Putin created with Wagner — the monster is fighting, the monster is acting against his creator. The political system is showing its fragilities and the military power is cracking.

The Luxembourg summit is expected to confirm more military assistance to Ukraine.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, during a visit to Lithuania’s capital Vilnius, said of the mini-rebellion:

The events over the weekend are an internal Russian matter, and yet another demonstration of the big strategic mistake that President Putin made with his illegal annexation of Crimea and the war against Ukraine….

As Russia continues its assault, it is even more important to continue our support to Ukraine.

UPDATE 0726 GMT:

The Ukraine Air Force says it downed two of three Russian Kalibr cruise missiles and 11 of 12 attack drones overnight.

A missile and a drone hit “certain objects” in the Odesa region in southern Ukraine.

Russian forces dropped incendiary shells on the Kherson region in southern Ukraine at dawn on Monday. In Olhivka, one person was injured by the attacks.

UPDATE 0712 GMT:

The Russian leadership has signaled that it will not disband the Wagner Group but will continue to try and use the estimated 25,000 mercenaries in operations.

The head of the Duma Defense Committee, Andrey Kartapolov, said Sunday that Wagner is “the most combat-ready unit in Russia“.

He excused the rebellion of the fighters, saying that they were “following orders of their command” and “did nothing reprehensible”.

UPDATE 0622 GMT:

Australia has announced a A$110 million (US $73.5 million) package of assistance for Ukraine, including vehicles, ammunition, and humanitarian funding.

The package has 70 military vehicles — 28 M113 armored vehicles, 14 special operations vehicles, 28 MAN 40M medium trucks, and 14 trailers — 105mm artillery ammunition; and $10 million for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Australia has now provided A$790 million of aid, including A$610m in military assistance, to Kyiv.

UPDATE 0614 GMT:

Russian State media claims Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu has visited troops in Ukraine.

RIA claimed Ria claimed Shoygu met Col. Gen. Yevgeny Nikiforov, head of the Western Military Command, and reviewed support for troops.

Shoygu’s dismissal was one of the central demands of the rebellion of Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin.

UPDATE 0609 GMT:

The Russian rouble reached a 15-month low against the US dollar on Monday.

The rouble opened at 86.88 and sank to 87.23. It has recovered to 86.37, but is still down 2.1% from Friday.

UPDATE 0600 GMT:

Russian shelling on the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine killed two civilians on Sunday.

Another man was slain in Kherson city in the south.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Amid questions about Vladimir Putin’s authority following the mini-rebellion by Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his international supporters spoke on Sunday about the “real cracks” in the Kremlin.

Zelenskiy discussed “the course of hostilities and the processes taking place in Russia” with US President Joe Biden and “shared Ukrainian” assessments of the attempted coup in Russia” with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

The Ukraine President refrained from detailed commentary on the rebellion, which took control of the city of Rostov-on-Don — the main logistical hub for Putin’s invasion — and rapidly advanced to 200 miles south of Moscow.

However, he made clear, “The world must put pressure on Russia until international order is restored.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken went farther in interviews on American television, describing “a direct challenge to Putin’s authority”.

This raises profound questions. It shows real cracks.

We can’t speculate or know exactly where that’s going to go. We do know that Putin has a lot more to answer for in the weeks and months ahead….

This is an unfolding story and I think we’re in the midst of a moving picture. We haven’t seen the last act.

French President Emmanuel Macron said the developments show “the divisions that exist within the Russian camp, and the fragility of both its military and its auxillary forces”.

Where is Putin?

The rebellion was ended on Saturday, after just over 24 hours, by an agreement — brokered by Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko — between Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Kremlin. Prigozhin would move to Belarus, and his mercenaries would not face any consequences for their challenge to Putin’s authority.

But beyond that, the terms were vague. There was no reference to Prigozhin’s demand for the firing of Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and the commander of the Ukraine invasion, Maj. Gen. Valery Gerasimov. The catalyst for the rebellion — Shoygu’s decree earlier this month that all combatants sign contracts with the Defense Ministry — was not addressed.

There were more questions on Sunday. Russia State TV’s high-profile commentators emphasized Putin’s speech on Saturday night promising punishment over the “internal treason” of the “betrayal”.

The implicit denunciation of the amnesty for Prigozhin and his men could have been a signal that the Kremlin will step away from Saturday’s agreement. It could be polite but clear pressure on the Russian leader from his own propagandists.

But Putin was nowhere to be found yesterday. The Kremlin said that he had spoken again with Belarus’s Lukashenko in the morning, but did not say if they had discussed the rebellion.

Prigozhin was also absent after his triumphant departure, cheered by residents, from Rostov-on-Don on Saturday.

Meanwhile, the big winners of the weekend’s events appeared to be Ukraine and its two-week counter-offensive to liberate territory from Russian invaders.

The Russian military was effectively evicted from the Southern Military Command Headquarters in Rostov-on-Don by Wagner, who took the complex and the city without firing a single shot.

Amid the disarray, Ukraine forces advanced on the eastern front between 600 and 1,000 meters to the north and south of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region.

The counter-offensive also liberated areas near the city of Krasnohorivka in the Donetsk region, said Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Tarnavsky.

Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov summarized after a discussion with US Secretary of State Lloyd Austin, “Things are moving in the right direction. Ukraine will win.”