Saturday’s Coverage: International Coalition — We Must Bolster Kyiv’s Air Defenses

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1547 GMT:

In its latest maneuver over the status of Ukraine, China has signalled that it does not recognize Russian-occupied Crimea as Ukrainian territory.

The message came through the Chinese Ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, in a TV interview late Friday. Asked if Crimea is part of Ukraine under international law, Lu responded that the answer depends on one’s position:

Even these ex-Soviet Union countries do not have effective status, as we say, under international law because there’s no international accord to concretise their status as a sovereign country.

Last month — just before Chinese leader Xi Jinping met Vladimir Putin — Fu Cong, the Permanent Representative to the European Union, said Beijing does not recognize Putin’s annexations of four Ukrainian regions: Donetsk and Luhansk in the east and Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the south.

See also Ukraine War, Day 408: China and Europe Send Messages to Russia

France, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania all criticized Lu Shaye’s remarks on Crimea and on Ukrainian sovereignty.

European Union foreign policy head Josep Borrell tweeted:

UPDATE 1540 GMT:

Images of the ongoing Russian assault on Bakhmut in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine….

UPDATE 0648 GMT:

Russia has struck the Kharkiv region in northeast Ukraine with five S-300 missiles overnight.

Governor Oleg Syniehubov said a “civilian infrastructure object” was hit and set ablaze in Kharkiv. In the village of Kotliary, residences were damaged, with rescuers and emergency services despatched to the site.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Comments by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group mercenaries, are feeding analysis that Russia may switch from offense to defense in eastern Ukraine.

For months, the focal point in the Donetsk region has been the Russian attempt since May 2022 to overrun Bakhmut. Wagner’s fighters hold more than 85% of the city. However, they have been unable to complete the occupation, and Ukraine has maintained a supply line to the west.

See also EA on Ireland’s RTE: The Ukraine War from Bakhmut to Moscow

In a statement on Friday, Prigozhin did not emphasize Bakhmut and the Russian offensive in the surrounding area. Instead, he said Russia needs to “anchor itself in such a way that it is only possible to tear out [Russian forces from positions] with the claws of the opponent”.

Prigozhin and some far-right paramilitary groups are also rejecting Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric of the “de-Nazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine. The Rusich faction said Russia is fighting Ukraine to avenge Donbas, for living space, and for combat experience rather than Putin’s goals of defeating “Nazism” and “fascism”.

Some ultra-nationalists said the Russian Defense Ministry’s efforts to recruit another 400,000 troops is to ensure the defense of existing frontlines, efficiently freezing them. Commanders are reportedly transferring conscripts to Russian-occupied Crimea.

However, the Institute for the Study of War notes that Russia’s attempts to seize territory in Donetsk, including the town of Avdiivka and the disastrous assault on the town of Vuhledar, have not ceased.

The ISW concludes, “Putin’s continued insistence on Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine suggests that the group that wants to freeze the war along the current front lines has not fully persuaded [him].”

Ukraine Forces Advance in South

Ukraine forces have crossed the Dnipro River in the Kherson region in the south.

Video from Russian military bloggers on Saturday confirmed Ukrainian positions on the east bank of the river. The footage also indicated that Ukrainian troops have taken islands in the Dnipro.

The military bloggers expressed concern that the advance has established stable supply lines with regular conduct of missions in the area. They complained about the slow response of Russian artillery fire, citing over-centralization of the Russian military command.

Russia seized the Kherson region in the opening weeks of the invasions in March. Ukraine liberated the area west of the Dnipro, including Kherson city, in the autumn.