Ukraine forces in liberated Snihurivka, north of Kherson city, November 10, 2022

Sunday’s Coverage: Russia Switching to Defense in East?

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1751 GMT:

Ukraine head of intelligence Kyrylo Budanov says Russian forces are now in defensive positions on all fronts, except for their 11-month assault on Bakhmut and fighting near Avdiivka and Marinka in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.

Budanov noted that there is now little chance of the Russians taking Vuhledar after a disastrous offensive in January and February, in which Moscow lost about 130 armored units and brigades were decimated.

In a statement on Friday, the head of the Wagner Group mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said Russia needs to switch to defense to “anchor itself in such a way that it is only possible to tear out [our positions] with the claws of the opponent”.

#

Wagner’s fighters hold more than 85% of Bakhmut. However, they have been unable to complete the occupation, and Ukraine has maintained a supply line to the west.

See also EA on Ireland’s RTE: The Ukraine War from Bakhmut to Moscow

UPDATE 1743 GMT:

Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has met Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Zhytomyr, west of Kyiv.

Kallas expressed support for Ukraine’s admission into the European Union and NATO, as well as the supply of more ammunition, arms, and training to Kyiv’s military.

A joint declaration reinforced Kallas’s points:

We underline our firm commitment to bringing to justice those responsible for war crimes and other atrocity crimes committed in connection with Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. We welcome the arrest warrants of the International Criminal Court. We see this as the beginning of the process of accountability and of holding Russian leaders to account for the crimes and atrocities they are ordering, enabling or committing in Ukraine.

UPDATE 1734 GMT:

UN Secretary General António Guterres has told the Security Council that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was causing “massive suffering and devastation to the country and its people”.

He called for urgent “effective responses” as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov of Russia, which holds the Council’s rotating presidency this month, looked on.

Lavrov responded with a rambling harangue of the US and other countries for “destroying globalization”.

UPDATE 1046 GMT:

Darya Trepova, accused of the killing of Russian fighter and military blogger Maxim Fomin (Vladen Tatarsky) on April 2, has been denied bail.

Fomin was slain in the bombing of a cafe in St. Petersburg as he was addressing an audience about his experience on the frontline in Ukraine. Video showed Trepova presenting him with a statuette which contained an explosive.

The Moscow court rejected Trepova’s appeal against being held in prison until at least June 2.

Trepova’s husband has told independent Russian media outlets that he believed his wife was framed and that she did not the statuette was a bomb.

UPDATE 0902 GMT:

Moldova joined the European Union and at least five other European countries in criticism of remarks by China’s Ambassador to France, which refused to recognize Crimea as Ukrainian and put into question the sovereignty of the country.

The Moldovan Foreign Ministry said that the remarks were “absolutely unacceptable” and that it would be seeking clarification from Beijing.

France, which has also challenged Ambassador Lu Shaye’s remarks, said it is discussing the matter with him on Monday.

UPDATE 0736 GMT:

Russian shelling has killed two civilians and injured six in the Kherson region in southern Ukraine.

Two people were wounded in the Donetsk region in the east.

UPDATE 0607 GMT:

China is continuing its balancing act over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, trying to recover ground with European countries after a Chinese diplomats caused an uproar last week.

On Friday, the Chinese Ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, angered Ukraine and its European supporters by refusing to acknowledge Russian-occupied Crimea as Ukrainian territory.

In a TV interview, Lu even put recognition of all of Ukraine in question: “These ex-Soviet Union countries do not have effective status, as we say, under international law because there’s no international accord to concretise their status as a sovereign country.”

The European Union, France, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania all criticized the “unacceptable remarks”. The EU’s foreign policy head Josep Borrell tweeted, “The EU can only suppose these declarations do not represent China’s official policy.”

Latvia summoned the Chinese Chargé d’Affaires Riga to “provide explanations”, with Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs calling for “complete retraction” of Lu’s statement. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said the comments were “false” and “a misinterpretation of history.” And Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis tweeted:

In an interview published on Monday, Fu Cong, China’s Permanent Representative to the EU, reframed Lu’s comments:

The European side should correctly understand the reference to “no upper limit”. Friendship and cooperation among countries are endless and should not be artificially limited. Sino-Russian cooperation is “unlimited”, and the same is true for China and Europe.

With China looking to ease European sanctions and to restart discussions of an investment deal, Fu said in early April — just before Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s visit to Vladimir Putin in Moscow — that Beijing does not side with the Russian invasion. He added that China does not recognize Putin’s annexations of four Ukrainian regions: Donetsk and Luhansk in the east and Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the south.

Fu’s intervention has not settled European dissatisfaction. Before a meeting with EU colleagues in Luxembourg on Monday. Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský referred back to last week’s denial of Crimea as Ukrainian, “It is totally unacceptable.I hope bosses of this ambassador will make these things straight.”

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Calling for “operational silence”, Ukraine’s military officials have denied that their troops crossed the Dnipro River in the Kherson region in the south of the country.

Video posted by Russian military bloggers last weekend showed Ukrainian positions on the east bank of the river and indicated that Ukrainian troops have taken islands in the Dnipro. The bloggers complained that the advance has established stable supply lines with regular conduct of missions in the area, denouncing the slow response of Russian artillery fire.

The development would be a significant shift in Kherson, which had been seized by Russia in the opening days of Vladimir Putin’s invasion in March 2022.

A Ukrainian counter-offensive in the autumn liberated the territory west of the Dnipro, including Kherson city. Since then, the lines have been relatively static, with the Russians bolstering defense positions and digging in east of the river.

On Sunday, the spokesperson of Ukraine’s Southern Military Command, Natalia Humeniuk, said the claims had triggered Russian shelling which destroyed about 30 houses in the town of Beryslav on the western bank.

You need to trust reliable sources….Such are the consequences of a fake story in the conditions of a hybrid war.

Analysts anticipate a major Ukrainian counter-offensive this spring or summer. However, Ukraine’s officials have emphasized the need to control information about the location — in the Donbas area in the east, in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the south, or both — and the timing.