US President Joe Biden and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy embrace after their visit to the Wall of Remembrance in Kyiv, February 20, 2023 (Gleb Garanich/Reuters)

EA on India’s NDTV: Biden in Kyiv and the Next Phase of Ukraine War

Monday’s Coverage: Biden in Kyiv Amid Discussion of F-16 Supply

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1848 GMT:

After meeting Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said Italy “would not waver” in its support for the “extraordinary nation” of Ukraine, heroic in defending its “freedom, identity and sovereignty”.

Italy will give every possible assistance to create the conditions for negotiation, but until then it will give every kind of military, financial and civil support. Those who support Ukraine, even militarily, are those who work for peace.

But, as expected, she said Italy will not unilaterally send fighter jets to Kyiv: “It is a decision to be made with international partners.”

UPDATE 1840 GMT:

US President Joe Biden has met Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda and given a speech in the gardens of Warsaw’s Royal Castle.

Autocrats only understand one word: no.

No, you will not take my country. No, you will not take my freedom. No, you will not take my future.

I’ll repeat tonight what I said last year at the same place. A dictator bent on rebuilding an empire will never be able to ease the people’s love of liberties. Brutality will never grind down the will of the free. Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia, never.

Biden emphasized, “This war is never a necessity. It’s a tragedy. President Putin chose this war. Every day the war continues is his choice. He could end the war with a word.”

Responding to those calling for negotiations rather than assistance to Kyiv, Biden explained:

It’s simple. Russia stops invading Ukraine, it would end the war. If Ukraine stopped defending itself against Russia, it would be the end of Ukraine. That’s why together, we’re making sure Ukraine can defend itself.

Duda issued his own appeal:

I call on all European states, NATO states, to show solidarity with Ukraine, to provide military support to Ukraine, so that they have something to fight with. Do not be afraid to provide this support.

UPDATE 1315 GMT:

The toll from this morning’s Russian attack on a market and bus stop in Kherson city in southern Ukraine has been raised to six killed and 12 wounded.

UPDATE 1158 GMT:

Ukraine’s electricity grid has been stabilized after more than three months of Russian missile and drone attacks on energy infrastructure and civilian sites, says State provider Ukrenergo.

On Monday night, streets and parks across the capital Kyiv were lit for the first time since November.

From late December through January, most Ukrainians had electricity for between four to eight hours a day.

Ukrenergo said, “Due to favourable weather conditions and the gradual increase in daylight hours, power plants that rely on renewable energy sources and operate mainly during the day have increased their output.”

The company said blackouts and cuts are still possible if consumption increased, notably in the Odesa and Lviv regions where repair work continues to “eliminate restrictions”.

Russia has carried out 16 waves of missile and drone strikes, with diminishing effect, since October 10. Attacks last Friday failed to cause any significant damage to energy installations.

See also Ukraine War, Day 361: Zelenskiy — “Another Confirmation of Our Resilience”

UPDATE 1112 GMT:

Near the end of his 105-minute speech, Vladimir Putin said he is suspending Russia’s participation in the New Start nuclear treaty with the US.

New Start, signed in April 2010 and coming into force in February 2011, limits strategic offensive weapons.

Putin said Russia will carry out new nuclear tests if US does so.

UPDATE 1024 GMT:

An image of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during Vladimir Putin’s speech….

The head of Russia’s Central Bank did not appear very impressed:

UPDATE 1016 GMT:

Russian State websites have suffered outages during Vladimir Putin’s speech.

The All-Russia State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK) website and the Smotrim live-streaming platform were offline for parts of the address.

The VGTRK site posted a message that “technical works were being carried out”.

The RIA Novosti news agency said the sites suffered a distributed denial of service attack.

UPDATE 0955 GMT:

Vladimir Putin has woven a fantasy about sanctions on Russia hurting the “West” rather than Moscow.

They provoked a growth of prices in their own countries, the closures of factories, the collapse of energy sector, and they are telling their citizens that is the Russians who are to blame.

He provided no support for the claims.

UPDATE 0951 GMT:

Mark Galeotti, a leading analyst of Russia, notes:

UPDATE 0947 GMT:

Commentators on Russian State TV were distressed by US President Joe Biden’s visit to Kyiv.

Perhaps we could have whacked Biden. But it would have been too much.

UPDATE 0937 GMT:

Putin is trying to salvage legitimacy for his invasion by referring to the sham referenda in four Ukrainian regions which he “annexed” in September.

I would like to express a special gratitude to the citizens of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. You yourself determined your future. You made your choice despite the threats of terror of the Nazis….You made the choice to be together with Russia. To be together with your motherland.

UPDATE 0916 GMT:

As expected, Vladimir Putin is playing the victim in his address to the Russian Parliament.

He has claimed, with no evidence, that he invaded Ukraine because the West and NATO were publicly discussing the supply of nuclear weapons to Kyiv. The West, he said, is “playing a dirty game” with its “centuries of colonialism and dictatorship” and deceiving people with “total unprincipled lies” about the situation in eastern Ukraine.

Putin tipped off his concern that Ukraine will be able to liberate more territory, saying that Sevastopol in Russian-occupied Crimea will be the next objective after the Donbas in the east.

He portrayed Ukrainians as the helpless hostages of the “West”, which uses terrorists, Nazis, and “even the devil himself” to fight Russia.

Then he deviated into a diatribe against Western culture: “Even paedophilia is announced as a normal thing”. And the Anglican church is considering gender-neutral terms for God.

UPDATE 0902 GMT:

The latest Russian attacks across the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine have killed three civilians and wounded five.

Two civilians were killed in the Kherson region in southern Ukraine.

UPDATE 0854 GMT:

The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights says at least 8,006 civilians have been killed and 13,287 wounded during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Most of the casualties recorded were caused by artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, missiles, and airstrikes.

The OHCHR added its standard caveat that the actual toll is considerably higher. High Commissoner Volker Turk said:

Our data are only the tip of the iceberg. The toll on civilians is unbearable. Amid electricity and water shortages during the cold winter months, nearly 18 million people are in dire need of humanitarian assistance. Some 14 million people have been displaced from their homes.

UPDATE 0816 GMT:

China’s Foreign Minister has pushed back implicitly against Joe Biden’s visit to Kyiv, as well as Washington’s warning to Beijing not to provide military assistance for the Russian invasion.

Qin Gang said China was “deeply concerned” about the war in Ukraine escalating and possibly “spiralling out of control”.

China is also on the defensive over the US shootdown of a spy balloon earlier this month.

The Foreign Minister said, “We urge certain countries to immediately stop fuelling the fire, stop shifting blame to China, and stop hyping up Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.”

ORIGINAL ENTRY: As he welcomed US President Joe Biden in Kyiv on Monday, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy responded to the concerns of other American officials about the next phase of Russia’s invasion.

Biden’s visit was a victory for the display of US and international support for Ukrainian resistance. The American leader proclaimed, “One year later, Kyiv stands. Ukraine stands. Democracy stands. The Americans stand with you, and the world stands with you.”

Biden announced another $500 million in military assistance, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, air surveillance radars, and more munitions for HIMARS rocket systems and howitzers.

Zelenskiy hailed “the results we have already achieved” and the “historic achievements we might gain together with the whole world”, saying this would “surely have a reflection on the battlefield”.

But he also had to deal with last week’s remarks by unnamed American defense officials, speaking to the Washington Post. They expressed concerns about Ukraine’s ability to defend Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine while preparing operations to liberate territory elsewhere.

So hours before Biden’s arrival, Zelenskiy said of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, attacked by the Russians since last May:

It is not a particularly big town….It is important for us to defend it but not at any cost and not so that everyone dies. We will fight as long as it is reasonable.

Analysts assess that Bakhmut, with 70,000 residents before the Russian invasion, now has little strategic value. However, the Kremlin — without a significant military advance since July — wanted a “victory” before Vladimir Putin’s address to the Federal Assembly on Tuesday and the first anniversary of his invasion on Friday.

Meanwhile, analysts note, Ukraine — strengthened with the arrival of heavy battle tanks and possibly fighter jets — could prepare a more significant offensive in the east and south of the country.

But the US officials emphasized to the Post that ongoing heavy losses in the defense of Bakhmut could hinder that preparation and delay any widespread operations.