Ukraine President Volodymr Zelenskiy addresses UK members of Parliament, Westminster Hall, London, February 8, 2023

Wednesday’s Coverage: Leopard Battle Tanks in Country by “End of March”

Source: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1701 GMT:

Elon Musk’s SpaceX is threatening Ukraine’s use of drones against the Russian invasion, prevent the Starlink satellite communications service from controlling the UAVs.

Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX’s chief operating officer, told a conference that the country never intended to allow Starlink to be used “for offensive purposes”.

Ukraine Presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak said SpaceX had failed to recognize Ukraine’s right to self-defense.

UPDATE 1406 GMT:

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says forthcoming European Union sanctions against Russia will include export bans worth more than 10 billion euros ($10.7 billion).

The measures “will further starve Russia’s military machine and shake the foundations of its economy”, Von der Leyen said.

She added, “We will target Putin’s propagandists because their lies are poisoning the public space in Russia and abroad.”

UPDATE 1229 GMT:

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has addressed the European Parliament about European standards of life, the rule of law, open societies, and the values of European people.

This is our Europe, these are our rules, this is our way of life. And for Ukraine it’s a way home….

Only our victory will guarantee our European values.

He expresses gratitude for the support of Ukrainians, by people in towns and cities, in this “historic battle”. The MEPs respond with a standing ovation.

“Ukraine will be a member of a European Union that is winning,” he says.

UPDATE 1210 GMT:

Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin says he has stopped recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine: “We are fulfilling all our obligations to those who work for us now.”

Prigozhin’s statement may be a further indication that Russian commanders are replacing the Wagner mercenaries, who had been in the lead of Russia’s assaults in eastern Ukraine, with conventional units.

It may also point to the dwindling success of Prigozhin’s recruitment drive. The independent Russian website Mediazona reports difficulties because reports of high casualty rates are reaching prisoners.

Prigozhin recruited 300 men from a Urals prison during the summer, but when Wagner had a second recruitment drive in December, its officer left with just 20 men.

A Meduza source said:

He wasn’t a psychologist; he didn’t know how to work a room.

And when he began to say that our guys were starting to get released and needed to be replaced, a discussion broke out between him and the prisoners.

One specific prisoner struck the final blow with a question: “What percentage of our guys who went are still alive?” At that point, [the recruiter] started to stammer. He couldn’t give an answer, and he ended his speech there.

UPDATE 1159 GMT:

The US-based Institute for the Study of War assesses that Russian forces “have begun their next major offensive” in the Luhansk region of eastern Ukraine.

The Russians seized almost of Luhansk last summer. However, a Ukrainian counter-offensive liberated areas of neighboring Kharkiv Province in September and put pressure on the Russian positions.

The ISW analysts say the pace of Russian operations has accelerated markedly along the Svatove-Kreminna line in western Luhansk over the past week. Marginal advances are reported northwest of Svatove and west of Kreminna.

The commitment of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions to offensive operations in this sector indicates the Russian offensive has begun, even if Ukrainian forces are so far preventing Russian forces from securing significant gains.

The Russian offensive likely has not yet reached its full tempo.

UK military intelligence has a different view, saying “commanders on both sides will highly likely seek to avoid scheduling major offensives” amid freezing weather and then muddy condition until mid- to late March.

However, the British analysts caution, “Perceived political or operational opportunities can override such concerns, as demonstrated by Russia launching its invasion in late-February 2022.”

Ukraine’s Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai said Ukrainian troops are holding their ground near Russian-held Kreminna, but need more weapons and ammunition.

“So far they have had no significant success, our defence forces are holding firmly there,” he asserted.

Kreminna is about 100 km (62 miles) northwest of the regional capital Luhansk. It had a population of about 18,000 before the Russian invasion.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, standing alongside US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, said on Wednesday:

Regrettably, we see no sign that Russia is preparing for peace.

On the contrary, Moscow is preparing for new military offensives.

So we must continue to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to retake territory, and prevail as a sovereign, independent nation.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Volodymyr Zelenskiy — as well as his military and his people — have been acclaimed as heroes during the Ukraine President’s trip to London.

And the visit, Zelenskiy’s second outside the country since the Russian invasion, has contributed to the UK’s consideration of the supply of fighter jets. That could be the first step — as with last month’s confirmation of the delivery of heavy battle tanks — in an international coalition providing the warplanes.

Zelenskiy was greeted rapturously as he rose to speak in Westminister Hall before a joint session of Parliament. He invoked a shared mission for freedom and against evil, with Ukrainians in the frontline. The message was reinforced by allusions to Winston Churchill and the UK’s stand against Nazi Germany in World War II.

Bravery takes through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory….The world needs your leadership, Britain. Just as it needs Ukrainian bravery…..

Freedom will win, the most important victory in our lifetime. Any international aggressor will know what awaits him if he attacks international order.

Leavening the seriousness of the topic with dashes of humor, Zelenskiy thanked the UK for its commitment of 14 Challenger 2 battle tanks, which helped pave the way for pledges of German-made Leopards from at least 12 countries.

Then he turned to fighter jets, with a personalized reference to his later meeting with King Charles III: “In Britain, the King is an air force pilot. In Ukraine today, every air force pilot is a king.”

That was followed by the presentation of the helmet of a Ukrainian pilot — “one of our aces” — to the Speaker of the Parliament, Lindsay Hoyle. On it was inscribed, “We have freedom, gives us wings to protect us.”

Zelenskiy concluded, mentioning his previous visit to the UK Parliament in October 2020: “Two years I thanked you for delicious English tea. I will be leaving Parliament today thanking all of you in advance for powerful English planes.”

Even before Zelenskiy reached Buckingham Palace for his meeting with the king, the Sunak Government had shifted its position on the warplanes.

On January 31, officials said it was “not practical” to provide the jets.

Now a spokesperson for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he had asked Defense Secretary Ben Wallace to investigate which jets the UK might be able to send.

The spokesperson emphasized that no decision has been taken, but said the issue is being “actively” considered by Wallace.

The Kremlin tipped off its concern through the Russian Embassy in London:

We would like to remind London: in the event of such a scenario the death toll of yet another round of escalation, as well as its military-political consequences for the European continent and the whole world will be on the United Kingdom’s hands.

Russia will know how to respond to any unfriendly actions by the British side.

Onwards to the EU

Zelenskiy will attend a European Union summit in Brussels, Belgium today. He is expected to appeal for more weapons and fighter jets “as soon as possible” as well as encouraging a quick start to talks about Ukraine’s accession to the 27-nation bloc.

On Wednesday night, the Ukraine President met German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron in France. Scholz’s said Zelenskiy’s presence at the EU summit will be “a signal of European solidarity”.

Zelenskiy said at his appearance alongside the two leaders:

The sooner Ukraine gets long-range heavy weaponry, the sooner our pilots get planes, the sooner this Russian aggression will end and we can return to peace in Europe.

There is very little time.

Macron’s message on social media was “Towards victory, towards peace, towards Europe”: