German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius gives Ukraine counterpart Oleksiy Reznikov a model of a Leopard 2 battle tank, Kyiv, February 7, 2023

Tuesday’s Coverage: Russia Targets Children for Annexation and Deportation

Source: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1747 GMT:

Amid Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s visit to London, the UK Government has shifted its position to say the supply of fighter jets to Kyiv is under consideration.

Last week the Government said it was “not practical” to supply the jets, long sought sought by Zelenskiy.

But today a spokesperson for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he had asked Defense Secretary Ben Wallace to investigate which jets the UK might be able to send.

The spokesperson emphasized that no decision has been taken, but said the issue is being “actively” considered by Wallace.

The Russian Embassy in the UK warned that any provision of jets will have “military and political consequences for the European continent and the entire world”.

UPDATE 1325 GMT:

Invoking Winston Churchill and World War 2, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told the UK Parliament, “Bravery takes through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory….The world needs your leadership, Britain. Just as it needs Ukrainian bravery.”

He emphasized, “Freedom will win, the most important victory in our lifetime. Any international aggressor will know what awaits him if he attacks international order.”

He thanked the UK for the commitment of 14 Challenger 2 battle tanks, which helped pave the way for pledges of German-made Leopards, and calls for long-range missiles to “allow us to make the evil completely retreat from our country”.

Zelenskiy amplified his appeal for fighter jets through a reference to his meeting with King Charles later today, “In Britain, the King is an air force pilot. In Ukraine today, every air force pilot is a king.”

He presented the Speaker of the Parliament, Lindsay Hoyle, with the helmet of a Ukrainian pilot. On it was inscribed, “We have freedom, gives us wings to protect us.”

He concluded, with a reference to his previous visit to the UK Parliament in October 2020, “Two years I thanked you for delicious English tea. I will be leaving Parliament today thanking all of you in advance for powerful English planes.”

The crowd applauded enthusiastically.

UPDATE 1307 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is beginning his speech in the UK Houses of Parliament. He is welcomed by rapturous applause.

UPDATE 1208 GMT:

As Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy arrives in the UK, Britain has announced the addition of eight individuals and seven entities to its sanctions list over the Russian invasion.

Those sanctioned include five individuals “connected to Putin’s luxury residences”: Presidential Commissioner for Entrepreneur’s Rights Boris Titov; Nikolay Egorov, the former deputy chairman of Russia’s largest privately-owned oil refinery; Sergey Rudnov, the owner of pro-Kremlin news outlet Regum; Svetlana Krivonogikh, a shareholder in Bank Rossiya and the National Media Group; and Viktor Myachin, owner of Russian aircraft maintenance and repair company Aerostart.

Sanctioned organizations upon whom “Putin’s military relies on to maintain its illegal invasion of Ukraine” include drone manufacturer CST; RT-Komplekt, which produces parts for helicopter; Oboronlogistics, which organizes ttransportation and delivery for Russian military equipment; Universalmash and Lipetsk, manufacturers of tracked chassis for anti-aircraft missile systems; and software company Topaz.

Also blacklisted is Svetlana Krivonogikh, reportedly a former lover of Vladimir Putin.

Krivonogikh worked as a cleaner in the 1990s before reportedly meeting Putin in St Petersburg. She soon accumulated wealth and several properties, including a luxury flat in Monaco.

UPDATE 1014 GMT:

A leading member of Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group died on Wednesday after what appears to be an attempted execution.

Igor Mangushev, 36, was hospitalized over the weekend after he was shot in the head at close range in the Russian-occupied Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine.

Mangushev’s wife has claimed that he was executed, while friends and colleagues criticized the lack of a proper investigation.

Mangushev was a political and disinformation strategist for the Wagner Group’s founder Yevgeny Prigozhin. He reportedly commanded a Russian proxy unit and a Russian “anti-drone” platoon in Luhansk.

Last summer Mangushev achieved international notoriety with a media stunt in which he claimed to be brandishing the skull of a Ukrainian soldier.

His killing comes amid in-fighting in Moscow, with Prigozhin seeking ascendancy over political and military rivals including Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu.

See also Ukraine War, Day 328: Kremlin Pushes Back v. Wagner Group’s Prigozhin

In a Twitter thread, leading analyst Mark Galeotti assesses:

Was this about him or a proxy attack on Prigozhin? Obviously at this stage, impossible to say. However, it is worth noting that Prigozhin may have somewhat over-extended himself of late.

Galeotti continues, “Having watched Wagner burn through its zek-mercs in [eastern Ukraine], the MOD [Minister of Defense] now seems to be stepping in. The [state security service] FSB, which for so long was happy to be on sidelines, may be getting fed up of [Prigozhin].”

UPDATE 0841 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will visit the UK on Wednesday.

British officials say they will step up training for Ukrainian troops, including for fighter jet pilots and marines.

The trip is Zelenskiy’s second outside the country since the Russian invasion on February 24. He travelled to Washington in December, where he met President Joe Biden and senior officials and addressed a joint session of Congress.

UPDATE 0742 GMT:

The head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danilov, says Kyiv is watching for a major Russian offensive in either the northeast or south of the country.

Attempts at an offensive in either the Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia direction will of course be made.

How successful they’ll be will depend on us.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in his nightly address to the nation:

The Donetsk region and the east is where the situation is the hottest….The south sounds less often, although the strategic meaning of these directions is no less significant.

And we are strengthening the state along the entire perimeter.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: European partners advanced their pledge on Tuesday for delivery of German-made Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine, saying they will be in the country by the “end of March”.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorious made the commitment in an unannounced visit to Kyiv, saying the first tanks will be the advanced Leopard 2A6s.

Ukraine Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, posting a photo of himself and Pistorius, tweeted that the first Leopard 2 had already arrived — a toy model of the tank:

Later in the day, Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands issued a joint statement that they will provide at least 100 refurbished Leopard 1s.

The Defense Ministers of the three countries said the supply of the older tanks is part of an effort “to support Ukraine in their endeavor to withstand Russian aggression” and “significantly enhance Ukraine’s military potential for the restoration of their violated territorial integrity”.

Reports circulated that Germany’s Scholz Government has approved the delivery of 178 Leopard 1s.

The head of the German armsmaker Rheinmetall said it expects to send 20 to 25 Leopard 1s to Ukraine this year. CEO Armin Papperger told a conference, “The rest of the 88 that we have will be delivered next year.”