An Iranian-made drone flies over Kyiv, Ukraine during a Russian attack, October 17, 2022 (Sergei Supinsky/AFP)
Sunday’s Coverage: “Russia Does Not Have Resources For Large-Scale Offensive” Before 1st Anniversary
Source: Institute for the Study of War
UPDATE 1442 GMT:
The German Army has begun training of Ukrainian trooops on the Leopard 2 heavy battle tanks, a spokeswoman for the German Defense Ministry has said.
The primary training will be at the Armored Corps Training Center in Munster and should be completed by late March.
Ukrainian soldiers have already started training in Germany on Marder infantry fighting vehicles.
Footage of Ukrainian troops training on Leopards in Poland
📹https://t.co/ryRQqXU9vL pic.twitter.com/NGSlAlPLY3
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) February 13, 2023
UPDATE 1211 GMT:
Russia may have lost an entire brigade of the elite 155th naval infantry, consisting of about 500 troops, when an armored column was destroyed near Vuhledar in the Donetsk region.
The Russians have been trying to overrun Vuhledar for weeks. However, last week reports from the Ukrainian military, echoed by UK military intelligence, said about 30 tanks had been demolished by an artillery amubhs.
Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, a Ukraine military spokesman, told POLITICO, “A large number of enemy forces, including the command staff, were destroyed near Vuhledar and Mariinka in Donetsk Oblast….Vver the past week, the enemy lost about 130 units of equipment, including 36 units of tanks.”
Ukrainian marines posted a video of panicked Russian troops. The artillerymen firing on the attackers commented, “Go make a cemetery! Gosh, the first column went there and blew up, and then the second one went exactly the same route.”
Dmytrashkivskyi noted that the 155th brigade had already had to be restaffed after Russia’s defeat in northern Ukraine last spring, and then after an assault in the Donetsk region: “And now almost the entire brigade has been destroyed near Vuhledar.”
Pro-Kremlin Russian military bloggers are supporting the Ukrainian claims with mourning of the losses and criticism of commanders.
Igor Girkin, who commanded Russian proxy forces in eastern Ukraine in 2014, said Moscow’s generals are “complete morons, who don’t learn from their own mistakes”.
Ukrainian artillery shoots exceptionally accurately. More than 30 units of armored vehicles were lost. Dozens of tankmen were killed. Even more marines, special forces, and motorized riflemen died.
All these losses turned out to be one-sided — the Ukrainians shot the attackers like in a shooting gallery.
UPDATE 1200 GMT:
Moldova President Maia Sandu has warned of the preparation of a pro-Russian coup attempt.
Sandu said Russian special services and forces under their control are trying to destabilize the country, which lies to the west of Ukraine.
Russian forces have occupied Transnistria, in the east of Moldova, since 1992.
Sandu said that Ukrainian and Moldovan authorities had shared information confirming the assessment of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy:
Russia’s plan to undertake subversive actions on the territory of our state is not a new one. Attempts to destabilize the situation and undermine the state also existed last fall, but they did not achieve their goal thanks to the prompt interventions of our security and public order institutions.
In the autumn, the focus was on the energy crisis, which was to cause major discontent among the population and lead to violent protests.
The plan for the next period involves actions with the involvement of diversionists with military training, camouflaged in civilian clothes, who will undertake violent actions, attack on some state buildings and take hostages. Through violent actions disguised as protests by the so-called opposition, the change of power in Chisinau would be forced.
UPDATE 1000 GMT:
Ukraine Energy Minister German Galushchenko says, after repairs of damage from Friday’s latest wave of Russian airstrikes: “Today, on the first business day of the week, despite a significant increase in consumption, Ukraine’s power system continues to meet the electricity needs of consumers.”
State grid operator Ukrenergo put additional units into operation at several thermal power plants after the repair work.
UPDATE 0932 GMT:
Russian shelling of the Kherson region in southern Ukraine has killed three civilians, wounded one, and damaged rail infrastructure.
Trains from Kyiv and Lviv are stopping at Mykolaiv, with a bus service to Kherson.
UPDATE 0737 GMT:
Georgian authorities are denying entry to Russian opposition politicians, journalists, and activists without explanation.
In the latest incident, border guards blocked entry by Anna Rivina, founder of “Violence. No”, a Russian foundation confronting domestic violence.
The human rights activist flew to Georgia, where she has been living for months, from Yerevan in Armenia on Sunday. She waited at the Tbilisi Airport for about three hours and now faces deportation.
Last Friday the Russian Justice Ministry declared Rivina a “foreign agent”, claiming that she distributes “false information about the activities of the Russian authorities and negative information about the Russian Defense Ministry.”
“Violence. No” was labelled a “foreign agent” in December 2020.
UPDATE 0728 GMT:
The US Embassy in Moscow is again directing American citizens to leave Russia immediately, citing the risk of arbitrary arrest or harassment by Russian agencies.
Exercise increased caution due to the risk of wrongful detentions….
Russian security services have arrested US citizens on spurious charges, singled out US citizens in Russia for detention and harassment, denied them fair and transparent treatment, and convicted them in secret trials or without presenting credible evidence.
Russian authorities arbitrarily enforce local laws against US citizen religious workers and have opened questionable criminal investigations against US citizens engaged in religious activity.
The Embassy last issued a warning in late September after Vladimir Putin ordered a mass mobilization of Russian men to fight in Ukraine.
“
UPDATE 0720 GMT:
The latest Russian attacks across the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine have killed one civilian and wounded another.
ORIGINAL ENTRY: Sources inside Iran have detailed how Iran is supplying its most advanced drones for Russia’s waves of attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and other civilian sites.
Speaking with The Guardian of London, the sources — who have “direct knowledge of the sale of drones, their capabilities, and manufacturing specifics” — said Tehran has used boats and a State-owned airline for the provision of the drones.
In November, the supply was enhanced when 10 officers and technicians made a special visit to Tehran. The delegation selected 18 drones for the Russian navy: 12 Shahed 191s and 129s with an air-to-ground strike capability, and six Mohajer-6 drones with a range of about 200 km (124 miles) and carrying two missiles under each wing.
Unlike the Shahed 131 and 136 “kamikaze” drones used by the Russians since September, the higher-flying drones can drop bombs and return to base intact.
Most of the drones were secretly picked up by an Iranian vessel from a base on the coast of the Caspian Sea. They were transferred at sea to a Russian navy boat on the sea. Others were sent on the Iran State-owned airline.
Fifty-four Iranian officials accompanied the delivery. Technicians have remained in Russia to put the drones into service.
The drones were produced in Isfahan in central Iran in a military plant which was attacked by Israel on January 28.
The last drone delivery was on November 20. More were planned,, but the Israeli strike is believed to have caused significant damage to the manufacture of Iran’s most advanced weapons systems, including precision-guided missiles and drones.
See also “Israel Carried Out Drone Attack on Iran Military Facility”
Trying to Break Through Ukraine’s Defense
The Russians are seeking the more advanced drones because Ukrainian air defenses quickly adapted to the Shahed 131s and 136s, downing almost all of them in later waves of attacks. The “kamikaze” UAVs are vulnerable because they have to fly low before attacking.
On New Year’s Day, Ukraine downed all 45 drones used alongside Russian missiles.
Last week the Russians used dozens of drones in another wave of assaults. Almost all were downed before reaching their targets.
See also Ukraine War, Day 312: Russia’s Failed New Year Attacks
Ukraine War, Day 352: Russia Launches Another Nationwide Wave of Missile Strikes
Iranian women play in the snow: https://www.outlookindia.com/international/snowfall-brings-cheer-to-drought-hit-iran-photos-261728
The reality of life in Iran.
[Editor’s Note: HRANA’s total number of protester deaths are “names collected from a variety of sources”. The “confirmed” deaths refer to “names collected and identify verified”.]
Casualty update. HRANA’s ** confirmed ** civilian tally remains at 257 with a ** claimed ** tally of 529 (from various sources). 70 members of the security forces are also confirmed killed: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1h5-7GfUpi3RHjwKCNCp-bhVpuiYtUEc4kjWRGW5ZM9Y/edit#
HRANA also does not state how civilians and security forces were killed or who by.
Iranwire has listed 310 names of those killed in the unrest: https://iranwire.com/en/politics/108299-remembering-victims-iran-protests-2022/
Khamenei chides western critics of the Islamic Republic following a record turnout on the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution: https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/482018/Historic-turnout
“Sometimes they blatantly lie and say that the government is regressing, while the country, despite its problems, has completely changed from the way it was two or three decades ago. It has made great progress. Sometimes they say that the Islamic Republic has reached a dead end. When someone reaches an impasse, they will fall to the ground on their own. So, if this claim is correct, then why are you spending so much to knock them down?”
How come the comment section of Feb 16th is closed, is it “news blackout”?
Not sure what is happening — but, no, no blackout….
Tried it with different browsers and in different modes, still no comment box for Feb 14-16 post.
I see your test post, maybe because you are admin….
I’ll start a new Iran entry tomorrow and comments should be open on that.
Ali Daai has been banned from leaving the country…
https://www.iranintl.com/202302159950
Chinese Are No Longer Willing To Work On Iran Oil Projects
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202302151102
Iran reports major surge in petrochemical, oil products exports: https://en.mehrnews.com/news/197429/Iran-reports-major-surge-in-petchem-oil-products-exports
“An industry source said on Tuesday that petrochemicals shipment had accounted for $12 billion or 27% of Iran’s total exports in the 10 months to late January. Hamdi Hosseini, a senior member of Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters Union (OPEX), said oil product exports from Iran had reached $13 billion between March 2022 and January this year. Hosseini said that Iran had earned some $4.9 billion from exports of 6.6 million metric tons (mt) of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in the nine months to late December, an increase of 120% compared to the same previous period.”
Iran is replacing crude exports with refined and manufactured products using the same material because of sanctions.
Who is stealing the proceedings then?
Why the US dollar is over 47000 toman then?
Why is khamenei licking chinese’s ass hole for scarps
NPR’s Marie Louise Kelly admits that she was free to mingle and ask any questions she liked: https://www.npr.org/2023/02/11/1156305970/iranians-are-protesting-their-government-on-the-anniversary-of-the-islamic-revol
“So we are free to ask whatever we want. We’ve talked to a lot of people. Today at the Revolution Day events, people were eager to speak to us. They were queuing up to speak to us. We were stopped twice, once by uniformed police, once by plainclothes, asked to see our papers. We showed them our temporary press ID. We were allowed to carry on. I will add, we have not been able to report from everywhere we would like to be. We asked to go to Evin Prison here in Tehran. That’s where political prisoners are being held. And we were told, not possible.”
[Editor’s Note: Here is what the commenter ignores in his selective portrayal of the article.
The opening section:
On Friday, the eve of the 44th anniversary of the Iranian Islamic Revolution, celebratory fireworks lit up Tehran’s night sky. Within minutes, the show was interrupted with cries of “freedom” “death to the dictator” and “death to Khamenei,” Iran’s supreme leader, ringing from apartment windows. Then, chants of “God is great” as supporters of the regime chimed in.
The moment demonstrated the divisions playing out in Iran, five months after the death of Mahsa Amini. The anti-government chants are the same ones shouted at protests that shook the country in the wake of Amini’s death in police custody in September.
Also:
On Saturday, huge crowds turned out for a rally that poured into Tehran’s Azadi Square. The message from Iran’s leaders: Everything is under control, and Iran is united.
Other Iranians skipped the celebrations and stayed home on Saturday.
Asked his plans for Revolution Day, one carpet dealer in the city of Isfahan, replied, “Sleep.” Like many people in this story, he spoke on the condition that he not be identified, because of the risks of publicly criticizing the regime. Those discussing the government also often didn’t want to be photographed.
And:
But others who believed in the revolution in 1979, today look back with regret.
“The celebration is losing its color,” said a 53-year-old woman walking with her father in the city of Isfahan, the day before the anniversary.]
Mary Louise Kelly, who recently visited Iran to cover the anniversary of the Revolution, gives her first report to NPR: https://www.npr.org/sections/pictureshow/2023/02/12/1156322493/fireworks-and-death-to-the-dictator-iranians-assess-the-revolution-44-years-on
Before the editor accuses me of “cherry picking”, I am indeed just going to quote what I find to be of interest:
“Many Iranians who express ambivalence about the regime still revere the revolution itself. Mortaza, a 63-year-old university professor, joined the celebrations in Tehran on Saturday. “I didn’t come for Mr. Khamenei,” he said. “I came for the revolution.” Even though he’s critical of the government, especially the treatment of Mahsa Amini, he said it was important that Iran is independent and sovereign.”
“Maryam was born the year of the Islamic Revolution, but she has never been to any of the celebrations marking the day. This year I felt that it is necessary,” she said. “Because of the violent protests that took place, I feared that there might be a civil war.”
“A 21-year-old woman walking with a poster of Ayatollah Khamenei told NPR that she loves the supreme leader. “He is wise, a good leader and very lovely,” she said. But as an economics student in college, she’s worried about the country.”
“The regime has argued that protests, which they have called “riots”, were encouraged by “outside forces.” There was a fear among many in the crowd that the US wants to intervene in Iranian affairs again, as it did in the 1953 coup.”
” “He is wise, a good leader and very lovely,”
Well, here are a couple of examples of “leaders” love for the nation
https://iranwire.com/en/prisoners/113788-protester-details-the-interrogations-and-indignities-of-evin-prison/
Tale of a sixteen year old blinded by what is “love” of khamenei for his nation
https://iranwire.com/fa/features/113769-%DA%86%D8%B4%D9%85%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B4-%DA%86%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A8%DA%86%D9%87-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%DA%A9%D9%88%D8%B1-%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%AF%DB%8C/
More evidence of khamenei’s love of people, pictures speak for themselves
https://iranwire.com/fa/features/113803-%DA%86%D8%B4%D9%85%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B4-%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86-%DA%86%D8%B4%D9%85%D9%85-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%DA%AF%D8%B1%D9%81%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A7-%DB%8C%DA%A9-%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%82%D9%88%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%86%D8%AF/
More of khamenei’s love…
https://iranwire.com/fa/features/113852-%DA%AF%DB%8C%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%AC%D9%85%D9%87%D9%88%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C-%D9%86%D8%AF%DB%8C%D9%85%D9%87%D9%87%D8%A7-%D9%88-%D8%B2%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%B6-%DA%AF%D9%81%D8%AA%D9%88%DA%AF%D9%88-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%A2%D8%B0%D8%B1-%D9%86%D9%81%DB%8C%D8%B3%DB%8C/
“Living standards may be higher in 2023 than in 1979, but that misses the point that they are much *lower* than in recent years and continue to decline”
No. Average income in iran was *three* times that of south korea in 1979, today it is a fraction of that of a south korea
These bastards look at their own looting they do and think that is what “income” is.
Iran’s GNP may have been larger than S. Korea’s kin 1979, but it was just because of oil sales none of which got distributed to ordinary Iranians.
“Iran’s GNP may have been larger than S. Korea’s kin 1979, but it was just because of oil sales none of which got distributed to ordinary Iranians.”
Iran, in 56 years of pahlavi era(father and son) achieved what would be considered a miracle *even in the US*. (Scott can attest here or if I am wrong) When reza shah took over iran did not have one single meter of paved road, not one single hospital(only foreign charity clinics), not a single high school(only one military school run by russians), no school curriculum( only quron schools), not a single university, not a meter of railroad, no real administration. Oil industry was non existent, what there was was in the hands of britts. Mullahs were the only thriving endeavors…..ergo their animosity with reza shah…
So, spare everyone from your bullshit.
Iranian Cities Rocked By Overnight Protests After Islamic Revolution Commemorations
https://iranwire.com/en/news/113744-iranian-cities-rocked-by-overnight-protests-after-islamic-revolution-commemorations/
An iranian-austrian man has been arrested under terrorist act in London, he had been plotting against iran international news agency…
https://www.iranintl.com/202302137849
[Editor’s Note: The Cradle is a propaganda site set up, in the name of “anti-imperialism”, to support the lines of states such as Russia, Iran, and the Assad-controlled portion of Syria. This is a standard commentary that the Islamic Republic is destined to triumph economically.]
Iran’s revolution at 44: A struggling economy with big potential: https://thecradle.co/article-view/21329/irans-revolution-at-44-a-struggling-economy-with-big-potential
“Forty-four years on from the Islamic Revolution, Iran boasts a more diversified economy, advances in technology, and major development milestones – despite decades of western sanctions aimed at hindering such progress.”
Iran has achieved greater life expectancy, literacy and has risen in the Human Development Index considerably. Poverty rates have been reduced in half. The agriculture and services sectors have greatly increased since the Revolution which was completely dominated by oil production beforehand. Iran has the potential to be a major energy, transport and industrial hub in West Asia if the Europeans and Americans don’t create obstacles with sanctions.
[Editor’s Note: Living standards may be higher in 2023 than in 1979, but that misses the point that they are much *lower* than in recent years and continue to decline.]
The piece does not give a rosy picture of the Iranian economy, but it does show that living standards have risen since 1979, poverty has fallen and that the economy is much more diversified. Steel, petrochemical and automobile production are heavily on the rise (ironically because of sanctions on the oil sector).
[Editor’s Note: “Rapidly” is a stretch. While there was a post-pandemic recovery, it is not as great as commenter portrays.
And, of course, this article is from August — before the recent deterioration in the economy situation, including the historic fall in the currency.]
Living standards indeed took a dip in 2018-2020, but they are improving rapidly: https://www.bourseandbazaar.com/tyranny-of-numbers/2022/8/25/new-data-show-irans-economy-is-improving-as-nuclear-negotiations-reach-a-critical-stage
” In 2021, the poverty rate for urban households was 6.5%, down from 9.2% the year before but still above its level in 2017 before Trump sanctions took effect. Poverty in rural areas has also declined but less so, and it is still very high. The poverty rate for the country as a whole is now below 10%.”
“economy is much more diversified. Steel, petrochemical and automobile production are heavily on the rise (ironically because of sanctions on the oil sector).”
-Iran’s steel production infrastructure was built before the revolution
-Iran’s auto industry infrastructure was built before revolution, there were several cars and heavy vehicles built entirely assembled in iran including british, germans, americas cars including cadillac seville, etc….the recent productions are mostly smaller auto parts manufacturing. (I know auto sector like back of my hand)
-Iran was building the largest petrochemical plant in the world at the time revolution. Abadan refinery is ruins.
reza, take your head out of khamenei’s ass maybe some fresh air could do you some good, instead being high on khamenei’s GOH(excrements) all the time
[Editor’s Note: Tasnim, a site connected with the Iran regime, puts out the standard declaration that “millions” turned out for pro-regime events on Saturday.
Commenter goes further with his assertion that turnout may have been 1 in 4 Iranians, i.e., 22 million.]
Enemies Got The Message after Rallies on Iran Revolution Anniversary: President
https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2023/02/13/2852744/enemies-got-the-message-after-rallies-on-iran-revolution-anniversary-president
“Millions of Iranians took to the streets in over 1,400 cities and 38,000 villages across the country on Saturday to celebrate the national holiday of Bahman 22nd.”
Some estimates claimed that 1 in 4 Iranians participated.