Photo: Caycee Watson/US Air National Guard

EA on Ireland’s RTE: Fighter Jets for Ukraine?

Saturday’s Coverage: Zelenskiy — “Situation in East Remains Extremely Acute”

Source: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1700 GMT:

A memorial service has been held in Kyiv for British humanitarian worker Andrew Bagshaw.

Bagshaw and colleague Chris Parry, also a UK national, were killed by Russian fire on their car in early January. They were rescuing an elderly woman in Soledar as the Russians were trying to overrun the town in eastern Ukraine.

UPDATE 1653 GMT:

Russian shelling has killed three people and injured five in Kherson city in southern Ukraine.

The Kherson regional administration said the Russian forces targeted a hospital, school, bus station, post office, bank, and residential buildings.

Among the injured is a nurse working at the regional hospital.

UPDATE 1118 GMT:

Amid pressure on Russia’s economy from international sanctions, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has defended the restrictions on economic information.

There is a hybrid war being waged against Russia, including economic warfare. So in those conditions it is completely natural that we are classifying this data.

Everyone who needs to know, everyone who is part of the economic policymaking process, has access to the whole range of data, statistics, and so on.

Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina is trying to roll back the classification of the data, ordered just after the launch of Vladimir Putin’s invasion last February.

The classified data sets include foreign reserve holdings, export figures, and company results.

Nabiullina said last month that publication is needed for markets to grow: “We need to go back to proper disclosure, with a few exceptions, so investors can invest in securities.”

Peskov said Vladimir Putin regularly receives reports from top officials, “Any assertions that he receives distorted information are incorrect. He has all the information, he has economic cabinet meetings basically every week.”

UPDATE 0816 GMT:

The US says North Korea is supplying rockets and missiles to Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries.

The White House disseminated US intelligence photographs of Russian rail cars entering North Korea, picking up infantry rockets and missiles, and returning.

Kwon Jong-gun, Director General of North Korea’s Department of US Affairs, issued a denial and said the US will face a “really undesirable result” if it persists in spreading the “self-made rumor”.

He warned, “Trying to tarnish the image of [North Korea] by fabricating a non-existent thing is a grave provocation that can never be allowed and that cannot but trigger its reaction.”

UPDATE 0759 GMT:

Ukraine has sanctioned another 182 Russian and Belarusian companies and three individuals.

“Their assets in Ukraine are blocked, their properties will be used for our defence,” President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in his nightly address to the nation.

Most of the sanctioned companies are involved in the transportation of goods, vehicle leasing, and chemical production. They include Russian potash producer and exporter Uralkali, Belarus State-owned potash producer Belaruskali, Belarusian Railways, and Russia’s VTB-Leasing and Gazprombank Leasing.

UPDATE 0715 GMT:

The latest Russian attacks across the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine have killed four civilians and injured 17.

Three of the slain and 14 of the wounded were in Kostiantynivka, where four apartment buildings and a hotel were damaged.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: The Pentagon is considering the provision of US F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, according to “three people with knowledge of the discussions”.

Washington had put a priority on artillery, armor, and ground-based air defense systems. However, last week an international coalition, including Germany and US, confirmed the supply of battle tanks to Kyiv.

So the US is now considering the months-long appeal of Ukrainian officials for fighter jets. “I don’t think we are opposed,” said a “senior Department of Defense official”.

The official implied that confirmation of any supply will still take months, saying that Ukraine has yet to declare that the jets are its top priority. He added that the Pentagon is focused on sending Kyiv the capabilities it needs immediately — perhaps referring to US tanks that will require months for delivery, logisitics, and training before they can appear on the Ukrainian battlefield.

A senior aide to President Zelenskiy, Mykhailo Podolyak, said “fast-track” talks are underway over the jets and long-range missiles. He explained that Western countries “understand how the war is developing” and that battle tanks will need air cover.

Podolyak added the caution that some of Ukraine’s Western partners still maintain a “conservative” attitude to arms deliveries, “due to fear of changes in the international architecture”.

We need to work with this. We must show them the real picture of this war.

We must speak reasonably and tell them, for example, “This and this will reduce fatalities, this will reduce the burden on infrastructure. This will reduce security threats to the European continent, this will keep the war localized.”

And we are doing it.

“Advantages on the Battlefield Will Be Just Immense”

A Ukraine Government advisor said while the subject of the F-16s has been raised with the US, there is “nothing too serious” on the table so far. Another “person familiar with the conversations” said it could take “weeks” for the US to make a decision, both on direct provision and on re-export of F-16s from other countries.

Yuriy Sak, an advisor to Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, summarized the potential of a positive outcome, “If we get them, the advantages on the battlefield will be just immense….It’s not just F-16s: fourth generation aircraft, this is what we want.”

A Pentagon official echoed, “If they get [F-16] Vipers and they have an active air-to-air missile with the radar the F-16 currently has with some electronic protection, now it’s an even game.”

For now, the Biden Administration is making no commitments. A White House spokesperson pointed to Thursday’s remarks by Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer that the US would be discussing fighter jets “very carefully” but “we have not ruled in or out any specific systems”.

A Pentagon spokesperson said, “We have nothing to announce regarding F-16s. As always, we’ll continue to consult closely with the Ukrainians and our international Allies and partners on Ukraine’s security assistance needs to enable them to defend their country.”

Some Pentagon officials argue that the need to replenish Ukraine’s air defenses amid waves of Russia’s missile and drone attacks is more urgent, given that it may be months before fighter jets can be in service.

One senior official said the supply of F-16s “does not solve the cruise missile or drone problem right now”.