People look out from a residential building damaged by Russian shelling, Nikopol, Ukraine, August 15, 2022 (AP)
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Sunday’s Coverage: Drone Strikes Russia’s Naval HQ in Crimea
Source: Institute for the Study of War
UPDATE 1359 GMT:
A “senior Ukrainian official” has reiterated Kyiv’s denial of any involvement in Saturday’s killing of Russian political activist Darya Dugina.
The official said neither Dugina, slain by a car bomb west of Moscow, or her father, ultra-nationalist ideologue Alexander Dugin, were strategically significant: “What reason is there for us to do this?”
The official said the assassination appeared to be “the work of professional guys”. While it could be the outcome of a dispute amongst ultra-nationalists, it might be the work Russia’s stata security agency FSB, although this was speculative.
Russian officials have busily constructed the story today that the attacker was a Ukrainian woman who entered the country with her daughter on July 23. They said the assailant has fled to Estonia.
A spokesperson for the Estonian police and border guard said, “We can publish the data of people moving across the border only in the cases prescribed by law, and the situation where the Russian special service accuses them of something in the media is not one of them.”
UPDATE 0737 GMT:
Residents report an explosion and fire inside a Russian ammunition depot in the occupied area of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.
Russian State outlets said warehouses near a supermarket were struck.
UPDATE 0725 GMT:
The latest Russian shelling across the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine has killed two civilians.
Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said the fatalities were in Heorhiivka and Kostyantynivka.
UPDATE 1311 GMT:
Ukraine army chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi has said almost 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed during Russia’s invasion.
The statement is the first by Kyiv of losses in the war.
Zaluzhnyi said, “The [children] really do not understand anything that is going on and definitely need protection…because their father has gone to the front and possibly is among the almost 9,000 heroes who have been killed.”
In June, Ukrainian Presidential advisor Mykhailo Podalyak said up to 200 Ukrainian soldiers were dying each day, at the height of Russia’s offensive in the east.
Ukraine’s military claims about 45,000 Russian troops have been slain. The US Pentagon says there have been 75,000 to Russian killed and wounded.
UPDATE 0640 GMT:
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has warned of “an absolutely disgusting and absurd show trial” of Ukrainian prisoners of war who were captured during the 12-week defense of Mariupol in the south of the country.
In his nightly address to the nation, Zelenskiy said:
No matter what the occupiers are thinking, no matter what they are planning, the reaction of our state will be absolutely clear. If this despicable show trial takes place, if our people are brought into this scenery in violation of all agreements, all international rules, if there is abuse….This will be the line beyond which any negotiations are impossible.
Zelenskiy said he spoke on Sunday with French President Emmanuel Macron and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan:
They and other world leaders received appropriate signals from us. Everyone understands everything. They understand what the occupiers are doing and what it threatens. And they understand that Ukraine will not tolerate this.
UPDATE 0630 GMT:
The US-based Institute for the Study of War assesses that Russia’s last-gasp offensive in eastern Ukraine has stalled.
The Russians completed the takeover of the Luhansk region in early July, but have struggled to advanced in neighboring Donetsk. The ISW summarizes:
Russian forces’ momentum from territorial gains around Bakhmut and Avdiivka in late July is likely exhausted, and Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine are likely culminating although very small Russian advances will likely continue.
The analysts conclude:
Russian forces’ failure to capitalize on prior gains around Bakhmut and Avdiivka is an example of a more fundamental Russian military problem — the demonstrated inability to translate tactical gains into operational successes.
Russian forces have consistently failed to take advantage of tactical breakthroughs to maneuver into Ukrainian rear areas or unhinge significant parts of the Ukrainian defensive lines. They therefore continually give the Ukrainians time to disengage tactically and re-establish defensible positions against which the Russians must then launch new deliberate attacks.
ORIGINAL ENTRY: Russia has again used the cover of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, occupied in early March, to shell the city of Nikopol in southern Ukraine.
Regional Governor Valentyn Reznichenko wrote on Telegram that the bombardment started a fire at an industrial site and damaged dozens of residences.
Nikopol was shelled with ‘Grad’ and barrel artillery three times during the night. 42 Russian shells flew into the residential quarters.
In the city, two houses were destroyed, almost 50 were mutilated. Enemy shells damaged a kindergarten, shops, pharmacies, markets, a court and a bus station. The shelling caused five fires….Up to 2,000 people are without electricity.
The Russians have used Zaporizhzhia to attack repeatedly across the Dnipro River. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has appealed for the Russians to demilitarize the plant, but Moscow has bluntly rejected the call.
Guterres and the international community have also sought access for a mission to the complex by the UN and the International Atomic Energy Agency. Russia has stalled on allowing any visit.
Last week, the Russians threatened to shut down the plant, with six of Ukraine’s 15 reactors, on the pretext that it might be shelled by the Ukrainians.
Russian missiles also hit targets near the port city of Odesa on Sunday. A spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Command said five Kalibr cruise missiles ere fired from warships in the Black Sea.
The official said three missiles hit agricultural targets and two were downed by Ukrainian air defenses. There were no casualties.
Russia declared, without any evidence, that it destroyed an ammunition depot with missiles for US-made HIMARS medium-range rocket systems.
