Talks in Istanbul, Turkey on lifting the Russian blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, July 13, 2022 (AP)

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Wednesday’s Coverage: Ukrainians Strike Russia’s Ammunition Depots

Source: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1712 GMT:

Vladimir Putin has signed measures for tougher punishment of anti-war activists and “foreign agents”, and for the Kremlin’s control of the economy amid difficulties over the invasion of Ukraine.

Taking effect on December, the measures equate defection with high treason. They broaden the definition of “foreign agents” to anyone supposedly “under foreign influence” or receiving support — not just funds — from abroad.

Anyone deemed to have called for “acts against national security” can be sentenced to up to seven years in prison.

Under the economic control bill, the Kremlin can order businesses to supply goods to the military, and demand that employees work nights, weekends, holidays, and overtime.

UPDATE 1700 GMT:

The death toll is now 22, including three children, from Russia’s missile attack on Vinnytsia, says the head of Ukraine national police, Ihor Klymenko.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called on European and International Criminal Court officials to open a “special tribunal” over the Russian attacks.

As European Union officials convened in The Hague to discuss war crimes, Zelenskiy led a moment of silence and then addressed the conference via videolink:

Existing judicial institutions cannot bring all the guilty parties to justice. Therefore, a special tribunal is needed to address the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine….

There must be a mandatory and principled punishment for all Russian criminals.

UPDATE 1400 GMT:

Ukraine’s emergency service has updated the toll from Russia’s missile strike on the center of Vinnytsia in central Ukraine (see 1124 GMT).

The nine missiles killed 20 people and injured 52 people, 34 seriously. Three children were slain and three wounded. Another 46 people are missing.

The strike damaged 55 buildings and 40 cars.

UPDATE 1142 GMT:

The Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe has reinforced concerns about mass deportation of Ukrainian civilians to Russia and about treatment in Russian “filtration centers” in occupied areas of Ukraine.

The OSCE report said civilians are subject to “harsh interrogations and humiliating body searches”. Those accused of collaboration with Ukraine’s military and authorities “often simply disappear”.

Experts found “grave breaches of international humanitarian law”, particularly in the towns of Bucha and Irpin near Kyiv, where they saw “signs of torture and ill-treatment on the corpses of killed civilians” that showed a “disregard of the principle of humanity”.

The OSCE report accompanies statements from Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that up to 2 million Ukrainians have been forcibly transported to Russia or Russian proxy areas of Ukraine (see 0651 GMT).

UPDATE 1124 GMT:

Russian missiles have struck a business center in Vinnytsia in central Ukraine, killing at least 20 people — including three children — and wounding 90.

The attack damaged nearby residential buildings and set about 50 vehicles on fire in a parking lot. Videos showed seriously-injured civilians in the aftermath.

Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the deputy head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, said the missiles were launched from a Russian submarine in the Black Sea.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy wrote, attaching a video of the devastation:

Vinnytsia. Rocket strikes in the city centre. There are wounded and dead, among them a small child.

Every day, Russia destroys the civilian population, kills Ukrainian children, directs rockets at civilian objects. Where there is nothing military. What is this, if not an open act of terrorism?

Inhumans.

A killer country. A terrorist country.

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba added, “We will put Russian war criminals on trial for every drop of Ukrainian blood and tears.”

UPDATE 0847 GMT:

Russian military bloggers are criticizing Moscow’s reliance on Iranian drones to improve artillery targeting, rather than addressing command issues.

The bloggers say requests for artillery fire are being delayed by several hours to several days because of a convoluted chain of command.

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Monday that the Iranians are providing drones — which have been used by Tehran and its allies in attacks in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, and other countries — to Russia, amid heavy Russian losses in the Ukraine invasion.

UPDATE 0820 GMT:

The Kremlin has ordered the 83 Russian regions, plus Russian-occupied Sevastopol and Crimea, to form volunteer battalions for Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, assesses the US-based Institute for the Study of War.

The step, with financial incentives for recruits, is an alternative to full mobilization with conscription or compulsory activation of all reservists. Putin has avoided that mobilization, as it would reveal that his “special military operation” is a war.

But Russia has suffered heavy losses in its 4 1/2-month assault, with the Ukraine military claiming about 38,000 Russian or Russian proxy troops have been killed.

Russian outlets say regional officials are recruiting men up to 50 years old — and 60 for certain military tasks — on six-month contracts with monthly salaries averaging 220,000 to 350,000 rubles ($3,750 to $6,000). Some regions are offering an immediate enlistment bonus averaging 200,000 rubles ($3,400).

Russian media have confirmed the creation or deployment of volunteer battalions in 11 regions, including Moscow.

ISW evaluates that the volunteer battalions could provide about 34,000 new servicemen by the end of August.

UPDATE 0717 GMT:

Russian missile strikes have damaged two educational institutions, a transport infrastructure facility, and a hotel in Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine.

Governor Vitaly Kim said one person was injured after nine missiles were fired.

Kim noted that five people were killed and two wounded on Wednesday by Russian shelling across the region.

Unable to overrun Mykolaiv after seizing part of Ukraine, Russia is regularly bombing and shelling the port city, killing scores of civilians.

Elsewhere in southern Ukraine, at least 14 civilians were injured in Zaporizhzhia city when two Russian missiles heavily damaged commercial facilities.

UPDATE 0711 GMT:

Emergency services have found a 48th victim in an apartment block destroyed by Russian rockets on Sunday in Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.

A 9-year-old child is among the dead. Nine people were rescued from the rubble.

See also Ukraine War, Day 139: Death Toll Rises to 45 from Russia’s Rocket Strike on Donetsk Apartment Block

UPDATE 0702 GMT:

Russian authorities have detained one of the last prominent opposition activists in the country, Ilya Yashin, for two months.

A Moscow court ordered that Yashin remain behind bars. He was supposed to be released on Wednesday after serving a 15-day sentence for “disobeying police”.

The activist, a Moscow city councillor and ally of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, is facing a charge of “spreading fake information” about the Russian military. If convicted, he could be sentenced to 15 years in prison.

“Do not be afraid of these scoundrels! Russia will be free!” Yashin shouted in court after the judge’s ruling.

UPDATE 0651 GMT:

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says almost 2 million Ukrainians — about 4% of the country’s pre-invasion population — have been forcibly transported to Russia by the attacking forces.

Several hundred thousand children are among those deported, Zelenskiy said on Wednesday in a video address to the Asian Leadership Conference in Seoul, South Korea.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken tweeted:

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Talks have advanced on lifting Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s grain exports, with UN Secretary General António Guterres hailing a “critical step forward”.

Turkey brokered the discussions in Istanbul with Russia, Ukraine, and the UN. Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on Wednesday that the deal will be signed next week, with joint controls for checking grains in Black Sea ports. Turkey will ensure the safety of Black Sea export routes, setting up a coordination centre with Ukraine, Russia and the UN.

The Ukrainian ports have been blocked since Russia seized part of the southern coast in the opening days of its February 24 invasion. Russian forces have also bombarded grain warehouses.

The attacks put more than 20 million tons of Ukrainian grain at risk. Exports fell from about 6 million tons per month to 1/3 of the amount, which has to be moved by rail to Europe.

This week Ukraine opened a canal to Danube River ports, after recapturing Snake Island in the western Black Sea. With more than 130 ships waiting to move from the Black Sea into the Danube and then to Romania, the route could add another 500,000 tons per month to exports.

Ukraine provides about 9% of the world’s grain, and the Russian blockade has added more than 45 million people to the status of “food insecure”. UN Secretary General Guterres said last month:

Millions of people may starve if the Russian blockade of the Black Sea continues….

While we are looking for ways to protect freedom, another person is destroying it. Another person continues to blackmail the world with hunger.

Ukraine War, Day 106: Russia Invasion Threatens “Unprecedented Wave of Hunger and Destitution”

He said on Wednesday, “Today is an important and substantive step, a step on the way to a comprehensive agreement….[But] for peace we still have a long way to go….More technical work will now be needed to materialize today’s progress.”

Ukraine President Zelenskiy said in his nightly address to the nation, “We are indeed making significant efforts to restore the supply of food to the world market. And I am grateful to the United Nations and Turkey for their respective efforts.”

Russia may still scupper the talks with the pretext that the exporting ships are carrying weapons. Foreign Ministry official Pyotr Ilyichev said Moscow wanted to control and inspect vessels itself, a condition likely to be rejected by Kyiv.