Russian armored vehicles loaded onto railway platforms in the Rostov-on-Don area near the Russia-Ukraine border, February 23, 2022 (AP)

Three hours before Vladimir Putin launched Russia’s war on Ukraine, analyst Molly McKew and I joined BBC 5 Live’s Colin Murray for a 25-minute analysis of the imminent bombing and invasion.

Listen to Discussion from 1:39.17

We assess the motives for Putin’s gamble on a war and consider the response by the US, Europe, and the international community.

It won’t stop here. The Russians will take the east of Ukraine and then they will try to overthrow and undermine Kyiv and install their man in the capital.

The immediate question is, “Do the Russians just move into the areas controlled by their proxies — about 1/3 of Donetsk and Luhansk — or do they go further?”

If they go further and invade the area controlled by Ukraine forces, we have a war on our hands….

I don’t think Putin is a master strategist. He’s a good tactician, but he’s a poor strategist. When you look beyond the immediate headlines about the Russian occupation of Ukraine, he could wind up breaking his country….

The international response will not be enough to prevent Russia from putting its heel on the Ukrainian people. But this is not a case of weeks or months, because there will be a Ukrainian insurgency.

It is at that point that you will need to see the international community support the Ukrainians as they resist Russian occupation.