Ukrainian troops on exercise in the east of the country (Reuters/File)
UPDATE, 1245 GMT:
Alongside Ankara-based analyst Muhammad Kocak, I joined South Africa’s Radio Islam to evaluate the latest situation in Ukraine and the possible next steps — by Kyiv, by Vladimir Putin, and by the US, Europe, and other countries.
The Grand Old Duke of York, he had 10,000 men, he marched them up the hill and marched them down again.
Vladimir Putin has put all these troops, warplanes, and missiles on the borders in an effect to scare Kyiv and undermine Ukraine’s Government, seizing part of the country because the US, Europe, and others would not react.
The problem with the gamble is that the US, Europe, and other countries have come back at him and said, “Your Move”, including through the sanctions.
UPDATE, 0925 GMT:
Extracts from my analysis for Ticker TV on Wednesday morning:
#BREAKING: "Putin is an old man seeking a legacy, but how much cost is he willing to take in order to get that legacy"
Founder @EA_WorldView @ScottLucas_EA says #Russia's first gambling stage has failed – but what could happen next? pic.twitter.com/fMwRPB7atW
— ticker NEWS (@tickerNEWSco) February 23, 2022
#BREAKING: "Vladimir Putin likes to keep people guessing – he likes to keep people uncertain"
Founder @EA_WorldView @ScottLucas_EA on recent actions made by #Russian President #Putin pic.twitter.com/AuBXlZt1oF
— ticker NEWS (@tickerNEWSco) February 23, 2022
ORIGINAL ENTRY: I spoke with Dublin NewsTalk’s Pat Kenny Show on Tuesday about the evolving situation in Ukraine, as Vladimir Putin neared a Russian invasion and the US and Europe considered sanctions on Moscow.
Putin is a pretty good tactician, but I’m not sure he’s a strategist for the long run.
His initial gamble — that the West would back away and not support Ukraine — failed. So he has doubled down, but now he is gambling with the entire Russian economy.
Putin has to hope that he can occupy part of Ukraine quickly and that he does not face an insurgency.
I also joined panel on India’s CNN 18 on Tuesday and Wednesday, explaining the necessity for a firm response to Putin’s actions.
Wednesday’s discussion:
Whose economy is in better shape to withstand the shock of a Russian invasion of Ukraine? Those of the EU, which are in relatively good shape despite the pandemic? That of the US? Or that of an already-weakened Russia?
#RussiaUkraineCrisis | West questions stand, but Russia backs India. Big diplomacy challenge for India.
International Affairs Expert, Professor Scott Lucas, from Birmingham, UK (@ScottLucas_EA) shares his views.
Watch #TheRightStand with @AnchorAnandN pic.twitter.com/a4xhJuiqRI
— News18 (@CNNnews18) February 23, 2022
Tuesday’s discussion:
When there is an aggression, you call out the aggressor. And you act.
You do not put out misinformation to cover for the aggressor.
The aggressor in this case is Vladimir Putin.
Int'l Affairs Expert @ScottLucas_EA :If we do not act, Putin will feel that he has succeeded here and he will go further.
Associate Prof, Flame University @nytimes1221 :We can expect China-Russia will work closer if not walk together.
Watch #TheRightStand With @AnchorAnandN pic.twitter.com/OAdJrfotfX
— News18 (@CNNnews18) February 22, 2022
