UPDATE, FEB 20:

Political analyst Ali Miraj and I joined talkRADIO’s Claudia-Liza Vendepuije on Saturday for further evaluation of the situation in and around Ukraine.

Listen to Discussion from 11:58 in 1700-1730 Segment

Miraj and I interpret Vladimir Putin’s maneuvers and threats of invasion, but respectfully differed in our interpretations: where Miraj sought issues over NATO’s purported expansion in Eastern Europe, I saw a pretext for an aggressive, ego-driven Putin to gamble on his “Greater Russia”, division of the countries supporting Ukraine, and the possible killing of tens of thousands of civilians.

Iraq 2003: Iraqis suffered because the US broke the international order, and you stand against that.

You don’t use Iraq 2003 to say “We do nothing” now when it’s Ukrainians who will be sacrificed because Vladimir Putin wants to make Ukraine part of “Greater Russia”.

ORIGINAL ENTRY, FEB 19: I joined Mark Galeotti, one of the world’s top analysts of Russia, on BBC Radio Scotland on Saturday to analyze the situation around Ukraine, Russia, and Vladimir Putin’s next move.

We discuss the military position, “hybrid warfare”, and the challenges for Putin abroad and at home. And I evaluate the response by the US, Europe, and NATO.

Listen to Discussion from 20:12

This is also an information battle. Both over Crimea in 2014 and Syria in 2015, Russia has gotten out front with disinformation and “false flags” as pretexts for their actions.

This time the US, Europe, and NATO said, “We’re not going to allow this to happen. We’re going to reveal what we know about Russian intentions and possibilities. That has meant Moscow has not been on the offensive if it is trying to set up an invasion.