Russian troops at a welcoming ceremony as they deploy in Belarus, north of Ukraine, January 2022
UPDATE, JAN 27:
Just before the US and NATO presented written responses to Russia over its threatened invasion of Ukraine, I spoke further with The Pat Kenny Show about Vladimir Putin’s tactics and about options for the defense of Kyiv, from the movement of natural gas counterig a Russian cutoff to Europe to sweeping sanctions against Moscow — including on Putin and his inner circle — and about the likelihood of a Ukrainian insurgency against an invading force.
The Americans have said to Moscow, “You may be able to grab a piece of eastern Ukraine in the next weeks but you will face an insurgency of months or even years.”
Meanwhile, Russia will be isolating itself in the rest of Europe. Commitments to NATO members such as the Baltic States and Poland will be reinforced, and other countries such as Sweden and Finland will draw closer to NATO.
ORIGINAL ENTRY, JAN 26:
As the Biden Administration warns of that war in Ukraine may be “imminent”, I spoke with Dublin NewsTalk’s Pat Kenny Show on Monday to analyze the extent of Russia’s military build-up on three fronts —- Vladimir Putin is already trying to destabilize and break up the country.
Putin’s gamble: while you’re watching my military forces, I’m going to get space to carry on the hybrid warfare which I have pursuing against Kiev since 2014.
Even if you keep Putin from invading, how much space does he have to continue these operations? And that’s really the issue between the US and Europe as they decide how to respond.