A senior Iran official has projected that Iran’s oil revenue in 2020 will be “at best $5 billion”.

Majid Reza Hariri, the chairman of the Iran-China Chamber of Commerce, told the Iranian Labor News Agency that non-oil exports will also decline this year. He forecast a total of $30 billion, a reduction of $10 billion from 2019.

Hariri warned of a depletion of foreign reserves in the crisis, with the $35 billion in exports outstripped by “foreign exchange expenditures…above $50 billion in the best economic situation”.

In 2011, Iran’s revenue from crude oil sales was more than $110 billion. It was sharply reduced by UN and US sanctions before the 2015 nuclear deal, but then recovered to $62 billion in 2018.

Since April 2018, Iran’s oil exports have been reduced by up to 95% amid comprehensive sanctions imposed by the Trump Administration in November, six months after the US withdrew from the nuclear agreement between Tehran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia).

Vice President Mohammad Baqer Nobakht said in June that oil export revenues in 2019 were less than $9 billion. First Vice President Esh’aq Jahangiri gave a figure of $8 billion, while President Hassan Rouhani said “just over $20 billion” in September.

Iranian officials have suspended announcements of the level of oil exports. Latest reports from tanker tracking firms estimate from 400,000 to 1.5 million barrels per day, compared with 2.5 million bpd in April 2018.

How Big is Iran’s Oil Export Recovery?

Meanwhile, Iran’s non-oil exports have fallen between 60% — with its top two customers China and the Gulf States — 75% with Turkey, and up to 95% with India, South Korea, and Japan.