UPDATE, 1800 GMT:

Pushing back Turkey, Russia has enabled pro-Assad forces in an all-day effort to retake the key town of Saraqeb.

Reports indicate Russia and the Assad regime put substantial resources into the attack, moving units from other parts of southern Idlib recaptured by anti-Assad forces.

Some reports say the Russia-regime force now controls Saraqeb, with Russian “military police” in the town.

But a local analyst explains that the military policies are likely to be mercenaries from the Wagner Force, used by Moscow as ground troops throughout the 107-month Syrian conflict.

There’s no doubt that rebels will attack Russian occupation forces disguised as military police, but Turkey probably won’t attack them.

Fortunately the Russians don’t have much regular troops on that front line, but they might provide the Wagner mercs with vehicles and uniforms.

Saraqeb is at the junction of the Damascus-to-Aleppo M5 and the cross-Idlib M4 highways. It was captured by the Russian-regime offensive at the start of February, defying a demand by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for Assad forces to withdraw from Idlib.

Turkey then supported rebels in the recapture of the town last week.

A Russian occupation of the town would strengthen Vladimir Putin’s negotiating hand as he meets Erdoğan in Moscow on Thursday or Friday.

UPDATE, 0915 GMT:

Reports are circulating that a Syrian refugee has been killed as Greek border police try to prevent entry from Turkey.

Footage showed other refugees surrounding a body.

Pressing Europe, Turkey lifted restrictions on exit last Friday, as it escalated its military intervention into northwest Syria. Refugees were taken at little or no cost to the Greek border and encouraged to leave by land or sea.

Greek forces have responded with tear gas and stun grenades to block and disperse refugees, who have responded by throwing stones.

Turkish State TV reports:

Turkey and Syria’s rebels expanded their military operations against pro-Assad forces in Idlib Province in northwest Syria on Sunday, further challenging a 10-month Russian-regime offensive.

The Turkish military carried out air and ground bombardment while the Syrian National Army regained more territory in southern Idlib, both near the key town of Saraqeb and in the al-Ghab Plain, which had been taken by Russia and the regime in recent weeks.

Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on Sunday that, in the previous 48 hours, the Turkish-rebel attacks had captured or destroyed 1 drone, 8 helicopters, 103 tanks, and 3 air defense systems. He declared that 2,212 regime soldiers have been “eliminated”.

See also The Reality of Syria: No One “Wins”

Local sources reported that the counter-attack took a series of villages in the al-Ghab Plain, bordering Hama Province, and was now poised to re-enter the iconic town of Kafranbel.

Kafranbel, prominent in the 107-month Syrian conflict for its protests with colorful and challenging posters, was seized by pro-Assad forces last week after the devastation of the town.

The Russian-regime offensive, launched last April, shattered a de-escalation zone declared in September 2018 by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. It has killed about 2,000 civilians, wounded thousands, and displaced more than 1 million.

Concerned about the pressure on the Turkish border, closed in 2016, Erdoğan said in late January that regime forces must leave Idlib by February 29. Deadly skirmishes followed, but the massive Turkish campaign was spurred by last Thursday’s killing of 36 Turkish troops by a Russia or regime strike.

Putin Steps Back, Will Meet Erdoğan

The Kremlin is still deciding on its response to the Turkish counter-attack. Asked on State TV about Erdoğan’s statement that Russia should stand aside in Idlib, spokesman Dmitry Peskov issued a holding statement:

Russia is the only country which has troops in Syria on a legal basis and at the request of the legitimate Syrian government. All other military forces of other countries are in Syria in contravention of the norms and principles of international law.

Peskov defended the breaking of the de-escalation zone around Idlib and northern Hama Provinces by claiming that Moscow was fighting terrorists. Trying to reverse Erdoğan’s comments, he said it was Ankara which had violated the September 2018 agreement.

But in a significant shift, the spokesman said Vladimir Putin would meet Erdoğan on March 5 or 6 in Moscow.

The Russian President had held out against a bilateral meeting, including in a phone call with Erdoğan last Friday.

Peskov said:

This will undoubtedly be a difficult meeting, but the heads of state have nevertheless affirmed their focus on resolving the situation in Idlib and their adherence to the Sochi accords. This is important.

Before the Turkish intervention, the Russian-regime offensive had seized almost all of northern Hama and part of southern Idlib.

The greater Idlib area is home to an estimated 3 million people, about half of whom have been displaced from other parts of Syria.

Turkey hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees but closed its border to more entries in 2016.