An Iranian navy boat tries to stop fire on one of two tankers attacked in the Gulf of Oman, June 13, 2019 (Tasnim/Reuters)
I joined Austria’s Radio FM4 on Friday to assess the attacks on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, near Iran’s coast and the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway.
The discussion reviews what we know — and don’t know — about the attack and then assesses the political and military significance.
Is this a step towards military confrontation or a battle of covert operations between the US and Iran? With Tehran rejecting mediation this week, are diplomatic measures to de-escalate the tension now cut off?
Donald Trump, who knows little about Iran, is almost peripheral here.
First, we’ve got hardliners in the US — such as the National Security Advisor, John Bolton — who are trying to ramp up the possibility of military confrontation. Does Bolton have allies within the Administration who will agree, “We’ve got to do something to respond to the the attacks on the tankers with a limited military step.”
On the other side, you’ve got hardliners in Iran, such as the Revolutionary Guards, who are not only making defiant statements and the Supreme Leader rejecting any mediation.
So the window to get to a political discussion to defuse the crisis was closing, even before yesterday, and it may now be shutting entirely.
