National Security Advisor John Bolton (R) and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (Mark Wilson/Getty)

In the wake of a Trump Administration order to withdraw some staff from the US Embassy in Iraq, I joined Monocle 24’s Markus Hippi on Wednesday to consider the measure — along with US economic sanctions and the move of air and naval forces to the Persian Gulf — as part of a regime change campaign.

We consider the effect on the US position in Iraq, but focus on the Administration’s assessment — probably misguided — that it can provoke an uprising against Iran’s clerical leaders, and what happens if that assessment is wrong.

The regime has decapitated the opposition movement in Iran over the past decade with severe repression, and even Iranians in 2009 and those today don’t look at revolution but at reform.

And they definitely don’t want a reform which is overshadowed or even dictated by US regime change.

See also Iran Daily, May 16: Trump Administration Splits Over Regime Change Operations

Listen from 1:34: