Bank of England head Mark Carney at a press conference, November 28, 2018 (AP)
I spoke with Julia Hartley-Brewer of talkRADIO on Thursday morning about the forecasts by the UK Treasury and the Bank of England that all versions of Brexit will slow the growth of the British economy.
The Treasury and Bank, parallelling the assessments of almost all economists, concluded that the best option for the UK would be remaining in the European Union. Compared to that, Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan is estimated to cost 4% in GDP over 15 years while a “No Deal” would bring a 9% drop in GDP, a 25% fall in house prices, and sharp rises in unemployment to 7.6% and inflation to 8.6%.
A “Norway-style” accession to the European Economic Area, leaving the EU but retaining a single market and Customs Union, would limit the relative GDP fall to 1.5% — but that rests on the scrapping of the May Government’s plan to end freedom of movement.
The discussion with Hartley-Brewer, who is a fervent supporter of No Deal, is lively as she tries to dismiss all economic assessments as “Project Fear” — holding to the “Project Blind Faith” of hard Brexit-ers.